China MAD option

bajingan

Senior Member
LOLzz, your analogy is laughable. As for US support of Philippine is just talk only. But comes to the real action, I believe will be another Georgia. Another reason why Georgia decide to strike South Ossetia is they will misled into believe US aid will come in the worst case which proves to be wrong.

Please forgive my ignorance, you see i,m an old school type of person that believes if my neighbour has an automatic rifle and i only have a revolver while i have a spare cash in my wallet to afford one, why not go to a nearest gunshop and buy brand new rifle?
 

raygun

New Member
Registered Member
China does not have the minimal nuclear deterrence they think they have. The open discussion about Air-Sea battle in the U.S. media proves the point. The fact that a conventional war with China in China's own turf is even conceivable to the U.S. planners indicates unequivocally that China does not have the minimal deterrence.

Hi, the way I see it, its precisely that China has MAD option vis a vis US that Air-Sea battle is the only viable option to counter China w/o invoking MAD. Naval battle are hardly justifiable reason to go nuking each others cities, and US has the upper hand in this arena. You make your adversary fight on your terms. Public discussion about Air-Sea battle in the US is similar to public discussion about A2/AD in China - media spin and fanboy chestbeating. The real tactical implementation of war plans will never be revealed to the public. :p
 

supercat

Major
Hi, the way I see it, its precisely that China has MAD option vis a vis US that Air-Sea battle is the only viable option to counter China w/o invoking MAD. Naval battle are hardly justifiable reason to go nuking each others cities, and US has the upper hand in this arena. You make your adversary fight on your terms. Public discussion about Air-Sea battle in the US is similar to public discussion about A2/AD in China - media spin and fanboy chestbeating. The real tactical implementation of war plans will never be revealed to the public. :p

Air-Sea battle, in the simplest terms, is to take out the other side's C4ISR infrastructures and kill as many personals as possible inside the enemy's sovereign territory. It is a direct treat to China's second-strike capability, because once the C4ISR located in inland China is taken out, it would be very hard for China to organize an effective counter-strike with its already meek nuclear strike force. China needs to have a credible nuclear deterrence that will prevent its enemy from even contemplating such a feat.

Whatever minimal deterrence China had before is no longer there with the development of missile defense. Strengthening the nuclear force is actually the most cost-effective way for China to deal with the concepts such as ASB, if China does not want to spend its way to oblivion in developing conventional weapons, like the Soviet Union did.

The current situation in East China Sea makes my point even more urgent. Unless the Chinese government is doing something to address the problem, they will be deemed by history as the most incompetent bunch that ever ruled China.
 

bajingan

Senior Member
It is also possible that China simply lying through the teeth when it said that it has the smallest nuclear force among the five nuclear powers but i think that strategy is counter productive by misleading others to believe you are that weak it is again will tempt potential enemy to miscalculate and aggressively threaten your interests as the US and Japan has done so recently

This whole nuclear ambiguity thing that China practice does not serve her interest well.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
If the US and Japan can take on China, why don't they do it now? Hasn't China done enough to warrant such action? Maybe they're afraid of the consequences? There goes the theory the US and Japan can take on China without fear of its minimal deterrence.
 

z117

New Member
Air-Sea battle, in the simplest terms, is to take out the other side's C4ISR infrastructures and kill as many personals as possible inside the enemy's sovereign territory. It is a direct treat to China's second-strike capability, because once the C4ISR located in inland China is taken out, it would be very hard for China to organize an effective counter-strike with its already meek nuclear strike force. China needs to have a credible nuclear deterrence that will prevent its enemy from even contemplating such a feat.

Yes in it's simplest terms. You make it sound as if it will all go as planned for the Americans and they'll be home before christmas (where are we heard that before?! ;)). China doesn't know whether ASB is real or not, even the Americans aren't very sure. Wars don't start and end over night, it takes years even decades, there will be plenty of time to build nukes if the Americans decide to play the nuke card.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
If the US and Japan can take on China, why don't they do it now? Hasn't China done enough to warrant such action? Maybe they're afraid of the consequences? There goes the theory the US and Japan can take on China without fear of its minimal deterrence.

A lot need to happen before two nuclear armed states go and have a open war with each others. Just look at what North-Korea has been doing and they have only 1-10 crude non-deliverable weapons, and US won't be going to war if there is a risk that their largest cities (even one city) get hit by nuclear warheads. MIRV's are not needed if you have only deterrence mind, but it will require penaids to make sure that RV reaches it target. That's why it was calculated that US could deter all possible enemies with 311 ICBM's with each carrying one RV.
 
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Broccoli

Senior Member
Then again i'm also lone nut who believes against all other estimations (by real experts) that DF-31 RV has a HEU pit, and my claim is based solely on diameter of DF-31 RV. Weapon using HEU pit is larger than it's plutonium pit counterpart and if you add IHE it will have even large diameter.

If MIRVin is not priority then using HEU pit makes more sense.
 
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Broccoli

Senior Member
Here is what CCTV claimed to be DF-31 RV, and when I did see it first time I thought they were showing DF-3 RV, but it seems to have too small diameter to be that. If it has plutonium pit then it is unnaturally large, so I assume it must have HEU pit instead, and it would be not surprising since most PRC thermonuclear weapons had HEU pits... they certainly have experience with them. IHE would also increase diameter of RV.
czOK5WH.jpg


I posted this article before and it explains quit well good points of HEU pits.
In an e-mail to multiple addressees, dated June 29, 2005, I suggested that because of the Bush/Putin handshake, the RRW programs could take advantage of the use of uranium 235, rather than plutonium 239, in the redesigned primaries. The advantages of uranium pits could include the following:

Replacing plutonium pits with uranium pits will eliminate the need for a Modern Pit Facility and a refurbishment of TA-55.

Y-12 has expertise in the fabrication of uranium parts based on 60 years of experience. I suggest that Y-12 can be upgraded to handle the fabrication of uranium pits at a fraction of the cost estimated for a modern pit facility.

The half-life of uranium 235, due to radioactive decay, is 700 million years versus 25,000 years for plutonium 239.

Therefore, the radioactive hazards associated with uranium pit fabrication would be reduced.

The radioactive hazards of weapon handling by DOE and military custodians could be reduced.

Plutonium is pyrophoric. Uranium is not.

With a 700 million year half-life, there should be no pit aging problems.

Given an accident and a uranium spill, decontamination could be less demanding.

The larger critical mass required by the use of uranium will result in thicker pit shells, thereby reducing machining problems during fabrication and resulting in higher yields and lower fabrication costs.

With the use of uranium, perhaps IHE will be less important.

The use of uranium pits will meet the NNSA objectives of a less expensive, easier-to-manufacture, longer-lasting, and less hazardous product.

Maintain 500 Minuteman III ICBMs with 1 URRW RV payload for each missile. The Minuteman III was originally deployed with 3 Mark 12s, and later upgraded to use 3 Mark 12 As. A single RV, the Mark 21, is now planned. The weight of a single URRW RV is less than the total weight of 3 Mark 12 As. There will be no base diameter constraint in using a single URRW RV. Again, NNSA indicates that the Air Force is agreeable.
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I really fail to see reason why weapon using plutonium pit would be that size.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
It is also possible that China simply lying through the teeth when it said that it has the smallest nuclear force among the five nuclear powers but i think that strategy is counter productive by misleading others to believe you are that weak it is again will tempt potential enemy to miscalculate and aggressively threaten your interests as the US and Japan has done so recently

This whole nuclear ambiguity thing that China practice does not serve her interest well.

You are right in your analogy but no I don't think Beijing is lying.. since an actual thermonuclear war is the last thing human civilization will ever do this is not a card you need to lie about. Rogue states or terrorist groups aside, nuclear weapons has one intent and purpose and one only and that is MAD.
For MAD to work you have to 'advertise and market it' otherwise the entire concept is meaningless and ironically in some ways make the world more at risk of WW III.

I see no reason why China would want or need to under report their nuclear arsenal because it serves no purpose other than to keep the laymen from overreacting. I don't care if the average Joe on the street knows or doesn't know but the Pentagon and their counterparts in China, Russia etc. needs to at least know the relative number of missiles each on has or how many are pointed at each other. Only than will MAD work like it was designed and everybody plays nice.
 
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