China MAD option

escobar

Brigadier
But when US and russia have more than 1500 ICBMs and China has only 250 nukes according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, potential enemies might be tempted to launch a disarming first strike since the US nuclear doctrine is based on disarming nuclear first strike against a much larger nuclear force (soviets) during the cold war, it encourages potential enemies to commit a grave miscalculation,

This doctrine requires to be able to hit back after the enemy strikes and China said it has developed a nuclear counterattack capability. The question is whether that is indeed possible or not. When the USSR planned nuclear attack on China in 1969 this doctrine has shown some weaknesses...

I cannot see how minimum deterence force helps keep China safer at all

Quite frankly I do not either. I think they are aware of this and are moving towards a really credible 2nd strike capability.
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Mace even at the US Sino worst moments the party congress never had a rousing unified "Death to America!" chant.
And the Chinese government is not written with the destruction of another nation written into there founding documents. The Iranian nuke is a threat as it places the entire middle east in to a whole new level of instability. Additionally Iran is one of the worlds leaders of terrorist sponsorship. If Iran has nukes then the IRGC has nukes and if they have a nuclear option then so does just about every nasty nasty. As for NK they have nuclear weapons. This opens the trouble as its a president it says the UN can do nothing, says any third world dictator can and has every right to nuclear arms. No matter what there agenda or how they treat there citizens. It also opens the possibly that other Asian nations out of china will feel compelled to go nuclear, that raises tensions.

As for if China revealed a massive warload of nuclear weapons it may only force a bigger soft power offensive

This is the irony I'm talking about. MAD is about unreasonable illogical thought. China was viewed far worse back during the first half of the Cold War than Iran or North Korea ever was. China was seen as the trouble-maker of Asia causing instability. It wasn't any different except maybe worse than how Iran and North Korea are portrayed. If the term terrorist was the hot button issue back then, China would be labeled a terrorist sponsoring nation. It's irrelevant what's the truth or a lie or if it was said or wasn't said. I hear people all the time saying "China is planning the US's destruction..." "China is planning an invasion of the US." China can pull all the records to prove nothing of the sort was ever discussed. Do you think that's going to change minds of those that believe it? It's all the same song but just played to a different tune.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Herman Cain, a 2012 US Presidential candidate did not know China had nukes while running for the Republican nomination for President.

He would have known at the appropriate time...

There are people who to this day don't know China has nukes. I remember before the Wen Ho Lee scandal I would hear people all the time say if China had nukes the Chinese would start World War III. China has had nukes since 1964. Meaning they're alarmed over China in general terms and they still saw China as a global threat thinking the country didn't have nukes.

People who should know, know it...
 

Lion

Senior Member
How can you deter someone if he don't know what you are capable of?



They already said that: "among the nuclear-weapon states, China possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal."
The US and russia who have the means to know whether it's a lie or not believe this is true.

That is different scenario you mention between known and offensive power to overwhelm the opponent.

For example, maybe they are some bravado US general who dare to make the assumption US missile shield is enough to handle 400 nuclear warhead.
 

Lion

Senior Member
He would have known at the appropriate time...



People who should know, know it...
That does not mean they have enough time to adjust their mindset China has enough nuclear offensive to deter US attack on China. Just like all in your 40 years time, you are mis fed with wrong info of weak opponent and suddenly you realised the truth. Does this mean you will suddenly look upon the old time foe with high esteem? You may even determined to try beat him once and for all out of esteem or the unacceptable change of truth.
 
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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
That does not mean they have enough time to adjust their mindset China has enough nuclear offensive to deter US attack on China. Just like all in your 40 years time, you are mis fed with wrong info of weak opponent and suddenly you realised the truth. Does this mean you will suddenly look upon the old time for with high esteem? You may even determined to try beat him once and for all out of esteem and continue misinfo.

for the 69 years of nuclear weapons history only twice has a nuclear weapon ever been fired in anger. Both times by the USA against Japan. The horrors of nuclear war is that of the reality that after the radioactive smoke had cleared the only survivors would be living in the southern hemisphere. (Australia becomes a super power!)That vision is MAD. The realization that the act would sanitize the very nations that engaged in it. The way that was realized was not just stock piles of your nukes but agreements with allied or semi allied states. IE if Russia had nuked the US; England, France and even China would irradiate Russia because of treaty.
The question is is that old treaty still allocable? The US Chinese relationship was established in the 1970s after China joined the nuclear club it basically agreed that as long as China does not attack a US Allie the US does not go after China and vise versa, if either is attacked by Russia the other renders aid.
SALT between the US and Russia has helped break down alot of the excess weapons of the powers but as mostly retired alot of the oldest of outta date weapons. This leaves a very potent nuclear arsenal in both directions of China. And leaves us with a quandary, should China need a large nuclear weapons program? I don't think it does as its more a relic maintaining a large force is extremely expensive and of little actual use. As no one is likely to use it. As a deterrent a small but efficient program seems a more realistic option especially if based on harder to target assets like SLBMs. Realistically the need of strategic weapons has reduced, that is not to say been eliminated. Nukes only can prevent a massive conflict between the major powers, they play no factor in major to minor league. For example the argument is the USA would never trade Taiwan for Los Angeles. The problem is that does not mean the US could not become a factor in the invasion scenario. Nuclear weapons play for a pause but the stop has to be the realistic threat.

that said... I hate nukes. I would love it if all the nuclear silos on earth were emptied and repurposed to ABM platforms. And if all the boomers on the planet were SSGMs. I want to see a day when children go to a musum and stare dumbfounded at a nuclear warhead wondering just what it is as they never heard of one in there whole life.
 

Lion

Senior Member
Nuclear weapon started between soviet and USA, the 2 main actor. While other are just co actor( France Britain China) nuclear stockpile is irrelevant. In fact, nuclear holocaust is avoid that period becos of the EQUALITY OF NUCLEAR STRENGTH between Soviet and USA. Both have enough warhead to make any retaliation or ABM shield useless. So no one dare to start the nuke.

But now the main actor change role, its between CHINA and USA. the nuclear stockpile huge differences will risk tempting one side to commit the unthinkable. Only by achieving nuclear equality, nuclear holocaust will most likely be avoided.
 
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Broccoli

Senior Member
Nuclear weapon started between soviet and USA, the 2 main actor. While other are just co actor( France Britain China) nuclear stockpile is irrelevant. In fact, nuclear holocaust is avoid that period becos of the EQUALITY OF NUCLEAR STRENGTH between Soviet and USA. Both have enough warhead to make any retaliation or ABM shield useless. So no one dare to start the nuke.

But now the main actor change role, its between CHINA and USA. the nuclear stockpile huge differences will risk tempting one side to commit the unthinkable. Only by achieving nuclear equality, nuclear holocaust will most likely be avoided.

Reagan wrote in he's diaries that he was amazed when he learned that Soviet's really feared that US would start lobbing nukes at them, and since Chinese leadership is not red anymore I doubt they are going to be paranoid like that. ABM shield is not going to make 200-400 warheads useless.
 
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Lion

Senior Member
Reagan wrote in he's diaries that he was amazed when he learned that Soviet's really feared that US would start lobbing nukes at them, and since Chinese leadership is not red anymore I doubt they are going to be paranoid like that. ABM shield is not going to make 200-400 warheads useless.

Given the change of situtation of the political world. Chinese leader starts to get paranoid of US military threat. US threat to China security is never the issue and all that change in 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis. Now with even the pivotal Asia strategy. I doubt Chinese leader will not included a scenario where nuclear threat arises.

In fact, most of the weapon inducted in China military is aimed at US. The upgraded of 2nd artillery with even longer range ICBM. SSBN Type 094 Induction and emphasize on JL-2. DF-21C ASBM, I will not be surprised if they do not even increased the number of nuclear warhead. Of cos, it will not be at an alarming rate. But definitely more than the previous stockpile estimated.
 
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