I see now we have drifted off topic to define what real power is, as kurt have said, China's per cap GDP is far smaller than France, Germany etc..
But the thing is. if real war break out, those GDP would not mean much, because almost all western nation's economy are based on consumer consumption of consumer goods. You may donate 90% of all your bank saving (if you still have any left) to the government's war effort, but what are they going to buy? Your manufacturing base is already relocated to Asia, your heavy industry is producing luxury cars or the production assembly of luxury cars to sell to Asia. Your job of being a financial analyst will not be much use to the war effort.
I believe war will not happen between major powers in the age of ICBM, because people are not stupid, but if it does, and if the war can last for more than a year, then China will have clear advantage, because China have ample reserve of coal and steel, a very robust manufacturing base, a terrain that is not easily targeted and bombed, a huge population in military service age, and oh yeah... #1 producer of steel in the world, accounts for 44% of total world steel production in the year 2010. And #1 manufactering nation in the world (yes overtook US recently).
China can produces things that are real, and if needed be, they can quickly switch their car assemble line to producing APC (Soviet in WW2), Europe and US have pretty much shifted their economy to a service economy, where things are mostly base on paper, and in the time of peace like now, moving money around is on paper is a lot more profitable than producing actual things, but in war time, you will find out soon enough, that 6% annual interest in your bank account is a lot less important than 50 rifles.
This is not to say US and Europe don't have the ability to switch back into manufacturing heavy industry, but before they try to do that, China is already where they wanted to be, so they will play catch up game with China. However as they catch up, China can keep up the pace and easily out produce Western nations, because like I said, they have a larger population, good resources, and already established heavy industry. Remember, how did Soviet beat Germany in WW2? They did it by pure numbers, battle of Kursk is a good example, it was an Decisive Soviet victory. But go ahead and take a look at Casualties and losses here. And with China's technology not that much behind West anymore (or in year future), they will able to hold their own in even number military engagements as well.
With that being said, I don't believe war will ever happen between major powers, simply because of ICBM more than anything else.
But the thing is. if real war break out, those GDP would not mean much, because almost all western nation's economy are based on consumer consumption of consumer goods. You may donate 90% of all your bank saving (if you still have any left) to the government's war effort, but what are they going to buy? Your manufacturing base is already relocated to Asia, your heavy industry is producing luxury cars or the production assembly of luxury cars to sell to Asia. Your job of being a financial analyst will not be much use to the war effort.
I believe war will not happen between major powers in the age of ICBM, because people are not stupid, but if it does, and if the war can last for more than a year, then China will have clear advantage, because China have ample reserve of coal and steel, a very robust manufacturing base, a terrain that is not easily targeted and bombed, a huge population in military service age, and oh yeah... #1 producer of steel in the world, accounts for 44% of total world steel production in the year 2010. And #1 manufactering nation in the world (yes overtook US recently).
China can produces things that are real, and if needed be, they can quickly switch their car assemble line to producing APC (Soviet in WW2), Europe and US have pretty much shifted their economy to a service economy, where things are mostly base on paper, and in the time of peace like now, moving money around is on paper is a lot more profitable than producing actual things, but in war time, you will find out soon enough, that 6% annual interest in your bank account is a lot less important than 50 rifles.
This is not to say US and Europe don't have the ability to switch back into manufacturing heavy industry, but before they try to do that, China is already where they wanted to be, so they will play catch up game with China. However as they catch up, China can keep up the pace and easily out produce Western nations, because like I said, they have a larger population, good resources, and already established heavy industry. Remember, how did Soviet beat Germany in WW2? They did it by pure numbers, battle of Kursk is a good example, it was an Decisive Soviet victory. But go ahead and take a look at Casualties and losses here. And with China's technology not that much behind West anymore (or in year future), they will able to hold their own in even number military engagements as well.
With that being said, I don't believe war will ever happen between major powers, simply because of ICBM more than anything else.
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