China IRBM/SRBM (and non-ICBM/SLBM) thread

[AndrewS]

And that's the wrong way to make calculations and assumptions - Similarly to how China will never park their MRLS/BM/HM TELs right on the Chinese coastline when engaging targets in the 1IC and 2IC, especially during wartime.

There is supposed to be a DF-21D ASBM brigade located on Hainan.

And prior to Patchwork's departure, he mentioned that the DF-21Ds are being replaced by DF-26.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

There is supposed to be a DF-21D ASBM brigade located on Hainan.

And prior to Patchwork's departure, he mentioned that the DF-21Ds are being replaced by DF-26.

Hainan isn't exactly small - The island is around 200 kilometers coast-to-coast, both longitudinally and latitudinally. Unless under extreme situations, they will (and should) avoid the coastal areas.

Also, Hainan isn't exactly a flat island - There are plenty of mountain ranges throughout much of the central and southern regions of the island for the PLARF IRBM TELs to hide and launch their missiles.

 

[tphuang]

There is supposed to be a DF-21D ASBM brigade located on Hainan.

And prior to Patchwork's departure, he mentioned that the DF-21Ds are being replaced by DF-26.

my question isn't DF-26s. They can be placed there at any time. It's 4100 km from Sanya to Darwin, so they can hit Darwin, barely. At least I believe DF-26 max range is up to 5000 km.

But, what could they put in Paracel or Spratleys. I think they should expand Paracel a little more. They need to start putting floating NPP there so you can sustain more of a population there. Whatever they have is nice, but they can build it up more.

Especially now that the Vietnamese are expanding like mad, China can use that to restart island expansion projects.

 

[AndrewS]

my question isn't DF-26s. They can be placed there at any time. It's 4100 km from Sanya to Darwin, so they can hit Darwin, barely. At least I believe DF-26 max range is up to 5000 km.

But, what could they put in Paracel or Spratleys. I think they should expand Paracel a little more. They need to start putting floating NPP there so you can sustain more of a population there. Whatever they have is nice, but they can build it up more.

Especially now that the Vietnamese are expanding like mad, China can use that to restart island expansion projects.

What would a civilian population on the Paracels being doing?

Because these are very small, isolated islands - you really want the minimum number of people to support whatever industries (fish farming?) which are viable.

I'm not a fan of floating NPPs due to the drawbacks. A combination of solar and batteries should be cheaper, safer and much more survivable in the event of an attack

 

[Wrought]

What would a civilian population on the Paracels being doing?

Because these are very small, isolated islands - you really want the minimum number of people to support whatever industries (fish farming?) which are viable.

I'm not a fan of floating NPPs due to the drawbacks. A combination of solar and batteries should be cheaper, safer and much more survivable in the event of an attack

Living there, the same way the Philippines put civilians on Thitu or China itself put civilians in the Himalayan 小康 villages. It's a statement of sovereignty in disputed territory, like planting a flag, because they are your citizens. It says "this is ours, because we are here."

 

[tphuang]

Living there, the same way the Philippines put civilians on Thitu or China itself put civilians in the Himalayan 小康 villages. It's a statement of sovereignty in disputed territory, like planting a flag, because they are your citizens. It says "this is ours, because we are here."

Having a civilian population to sustain the local base is helpful. If base gets damaged, it’s good to have housing & stores on the island + other basic necessities so that the troop & supporting staff can be more adequately supported.

so it would be more than planting a flag

just think about how hard it is for U.S. military to put these remote island bases back into play in barely habited islands.

 

[Blitzo]

Having a civilian population to sustain the local base is helpful. If base gets damaged, it’s good to have housing & stores on the island + other basic necessities so that the troop & supporting staff can be more adequately supported.

so it would be more than planting a flag

just think about how hard it is for U.S. military to put these remote island bases back into play in barely habited islands.

"Military" doesn't mean only weaponry or sensors, it includes all of the requisite logistics, supplies, stores to sustain a base as well.

Why would one need a civilian population be necessary for housing and stores and basic necessities for military personnel on these islands, rather than just having military associated housing, stores and basic necessities and other supplies?


Having a civilian population on any small island makes sense if it is intended for planting the flag for sovereignty related reasons, or if an island itself has a natural self sustaining way for a civilian population to exist (tourism, or existing in an economically self sufficient way that exists as an outgrowth of a major military base).
The problem is those islands in the SCS are relatively small and any civilian population would be small and token and more likely to impede and complicate the primary military/security focus of the islands to begin with. Considering the small size of those islands and the fact that those islands are also high value military targets for everyone in the region, I would also be surprised if a civilian population would willing go to live there.


In the long term, the military utility and survivability of those islands will be more reflected by the primary regional capability of PLAAF/PLAN/PLARF fires and air and naval projection, rather than only how survivable or repairable those islands are or how many missile batteries they have. Because if those islands are forced to defend themselves without a comprehensive defensive screen projected from ships and long range land based air from the mainland, without supporting offensive fires to target the fires platforms of an opfor, then those islands may as well be just expensive targets as they will be cut off from resupply if the PLA can't ensure air and sea control, and will simply be defeated in detail.

 

[tphuang]

"Military" doesn't mean only weaponry or sensors, it includes all of the requisite logistics, supplies, stores to sustain a base as well.

Why would one need a civilian population be necessary for housing and stores and basic necessities for military personnel on these islands, rather than just having military associated housing, stores and basic necessities and other supplies?


Having a civilian population on any small island makes sense if it is intended for planting the flag for sovereignty related reasons, or if an island itself has a natural self sustaining way for a civilian population to exist (tourism, or existing in an economically self sufficient way that exists as an outgrowth of a major military base).
The problem is those islands in the SCS are relatively small and any civilian population would be small and token and more likely to impede and complicate the primary military/security focus of the islands to begin with. Considering the small size of those islands and the fact that those islands are also high value military targets for everyone in the region, I would also be surprised if a civilian population would willing go to live there.


In the long term, the military utility and survivability of those islands will be more reflected by the primary regional capability of PLAAF/PLAN/PLARF fires and air and naval projection, rather than only how survivable or repairable those islands are or how many missile batteries they have. Because if those islands are forced to defend themselves without a comprehensive defensive screen projected from ships and long range land based air from the mainland, without supporting offensive fires to target the fires platforms of an opfor, then those islands may as well be just expensive targets as they will be cut off from resupply if the PLA can't ensure air and sea control, and will simply be defeated in detail.

I see greater futures for these islands than just for the purpose of military bases. This is probably not the right thread to talk about what those use cases are.

And I see the Paracel islands getting enlarged further.

I am not sure the point of your last paragraph since having civilian population should not affect whatever protection maybe offered.

 

[Blitzo]

I see greater futures for these islands than just for the purpose of military bases. This is probably not the right thread to talk about what those use cases are.

You mentioned the role of having a civilian population as one where where they can assist in repair of the base is damaged, which made it sound like you were interested in their presence primarily for a military adjacent role.

If you want to talk about having actually being able to organically attract and sustain a civilian populace, that's something else entirely.

And I see the Paracel islands getting enlarged further.

I am not sure the point of your last paragraph since having civilian population should not affect whatever protection maybe offered.

I'm saying virtually all of the SCS islands the PRC holds are to small to organically attract and sustain a civilian populace, and if anything the fact that those islands host significant military bases means those islands are likely to be high value military targets in a conflict meaning if anything civilians will not want to go there due to the dangers of being caught literally in the crosshairs of an active warzone, isolated in the middle of the SCS, if conflict occurred.

Perhaps if China had such overwhelming geopolitical and military dominance in the western pacific that no one would dare to look wrong at their SCS islands, then civilians would feel sufficiently confident to live on those islands, but then you still come to the problem of what on earth those SCS islands can offer in terms of attracting and sustaining an organic civilian population.

It just isn't feasible in the current geopolitical balance of power and regional alignment.

 

[tphuang]

You mentioned the role of having a civilian population as one where where they can assist in repair of the base is damaged, which made it sound like you were interested in their presence primarily for a military adjacent role.

If you want to talk about having actually being able to organically attract and sustain a civilian populace, that's something else entirely.




I'm saying virtually all of the SCS islands the PRC holds are to small to organically attract and sustain a civilian populace, and if anything the fact that those islands host significant military bases means those islands are likely to be high value military targets in a conflict meaning if anything civilians will not want to go there due to the dangers of being caught literally in the crosshairs of an active warzone, isolated in the middle of the SCS, if conflict occurred.

Perhaps if China had such overwhelming geopolitical and military dominance in the western pacific that no one would dare to look wrong at their SCS islands, then civilians would feel sufficiently confident to live on those islands, but then you still come to the problem of what on earth those SCS islands can offer in terms of attracting and sustaining an organic civilian population.

It just isn't feasible in the current geopolitical balance of power and regional alignment.

I think there are reasons to have civilian population especially in Paracel islands. And that will also have positive effect on military base.
And I'm working under the assumption that these islands will be enlarged over the coming years.