China IRBM/SRBM (and non-ICBM/SLBM) thread

Blitzo

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I think there are reasons to have civilian population especially in Paracel islands. And that will also have positive effect on military base.
And I'm working under the assumption that these islands will be enlarged over the coming years.

I think discussion about the viability of having any civilian populace on those islands at all can happen if we see them actually enlarged in future in a manner that actually has the acreage for it.

Until then, entertaining the idea seems highly premature.
 

coolgod

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China has a few tour boats to Xisha Islands. I think tourism is a good option. Look at Hawaii and Okinawa, they are military bases and tourist spots.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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Didn't China have a few tour boats there a while back. I think tourism is a good option. Look at Hawaii and Okinawa, they are military bases and tourist spots.

Both Oahu and Okinawa aren't small islands or even islets. Compared to what China has in the SCS, Oahu and Okinawa are absolutely massive.

Both Okinawa and Oahu also have actual sizeable cities and smaller towns on them with populations of over 1 million. Hosting military bases and personnel aside, there's the scale of the populace and economy to support tourism and even some local industries.

They are no mere military outposts or military bases like what China has with her SCS islands.

They aren't remotely comparable.
 

coolgod

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Both Oahu and Okinawa aren't small islands or even islets. Compared to what China has in the SCS, Oahu and Okinawa are absolutely massive.

Both Okinawa and Oahu also have actual sizeable cities and smaller towns on them with populations of over 1 million. Hosting military bases and personnel aside, there's the scale of populace and economy to support tourism and even some industries.

This means that they are no mere military outposts or military bases like what China has with her SCS islands.

They aren't remotely comparable.
Yes, I agree with you and Blitzo, China should speed up enlarging those islands. But if you look at Xisha Islands, which already have regular tour boats, it is definitely possible to have a small civilian population on it right now just to serve the tourists.
 

Xiongmao

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Does anyone know of any actual video footage of an IRBM or ICBM hitting the ground after test flight. Just curious what an impact from object descending from space at high speed would look like. Cheers men.
Now we have an answer:

 

Wrought

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A glaring omission in the 2024 CMPR—it keeps the IRBM launcher estimate unchanged at 250 despite the well-publicized production of more DF-26 TELs over the past year.

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EDIT: I went back and checked, the 2022 CMPR lists 250 launchers as well. You have to go back to 2021 to find a change (reduced to 200). According to the Pentagon, PLARF has just been sleeping for the past three years.
 
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nativechicken

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Fair point. Though, I'm still not exactly as optimistic. We're in the Cold War Arms Race 2.0 now.



Either way, provided that the DF-27 is capable of effectively striking 3IC and even the northwestern CONUS under permissible conditions - We'd need something that's better than the DF-27 for true intercontinental-range (>8000 kilometers) strikes against targets that are deeper into the CONUS, if not to guarantee greater envelope of strike maneuvering for missions against the 3IC.

A three-stage missile based on the DF-26 with a HGV mounted in place of the conventional warhead seems to be the way to go with (DF-31/41 would be more expensive than affordable). The MGM-134 Midgetman ICBM (at ~14 tons, which is actually lighter than DF-26's ~20 tons) should be a good reference material for such endeavors.
Regarding the mass of DF26/DF27, in China, the mass of DF25/26/27 has always been a mystery. In literature, there are claims that this two-stage missile (the specific model is unknown) weighs between 19-20 tons, 22-24 tons, and even higher (there are rumors among civilians that it could be 27-30 tons).
 

nativechicken

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That's kind of the point right. You gotta hit where the ships are. A lot of ships are going to be in Pearl Harbour or they are going to get worked up there.

It's also home to this that you'd want to take out in the beginning of a conflict.

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DF-27 are probably going to be expensive and deadly. So they need to be used to hit the most worthwhile targets. That means your carriers or LHDs or even more importantly the oiler/replenishment ships. You invest in these huge constellations to track these ships in the ocean so that you can hit them.

For something like Wake island, you can hit them with 093B VLS launched LACM or even LACMs from 055s and such (if you are comfortable putting a carrier group about 500 km to the East of Taiwan.
The core function (almost the only function) of the DF26/27 is to dismantle the maritime threat posed by the United States. The essence of U.S. armed intervention is its navy, which provides a mobile territory. I believe that China has no need to use the DF26/27 to attack airports and other installations far from Chinese territory; it would not be worth the cost. The strategy should focus on extreme sniper attacks against the U.S. Navy. Essentially, it might be possible to have a situation where there is no U.S. Navy presence within a range of 10,000-13,000 km around China. This implies that in the event of a Sino-American conflict, the final outcome for both sides could be the loss of all maritime equipment (assuming both China and the U.S. have the capability to eliminate each other's maritime armed resources). There would also be no possibility of anyone reaping the benefits. Once this tactical idea is truly implemented, everyone will realize that the era of sea power has come to a permanent end. Because if China and the U.S. can end each other's maritime armed forces, they can also end the maritime armed forces of everyone in the world. The rise of sea power was through maritime force to influence the geopolitical strategic landscape. However, with technological advancements, the fog of war at sea has been completely dispelled, coupled with the application of hypersonic weapons and anti-ship ballistic missiles. No one can use sea power to control land power.

China has a perspective (still in its infancy) that after the overturning of sea power theory, the existing geopolitical strategic foundation will be completely shattered. Once the U.S. loses sea power, it is just a larger island, posing no threat.

The core source of Western countries' advantage on this planet is that over the past 400 years since the Age of Discovery, they have gained a one-way right to attack through the superiority of maritime forces. That is, in the process of conquest, they either eliminate opponents through technological superiority (dimensional reduction strikes) or through divide and rule tactics (geopolitical political instigation of division). When they have maritime superiority, they can attack and erode opponents, and when they are at a disadvantage, they can use sea power to detach from opponents to avoid greater damage. Thus, Western countries have gained control of the world over the past 400 years.

Once the state of sea power, where I can attack you but you cannot attack me, is broken (air superiority is essentially the same), it means that the unilateral ability of hegemony to initiate war is suppressed (the reason for initiating war is that the harm suffered is far less than the harm inflicted on the opponent).

Therefore, my view is that, in addition to strategic nuclear strike missions, the most core conventional purpose of the DF26/27/31 is to completely deprive the opponent of the so-called freedom of navigation at sea. Achieving this would lead to the rapid disintegration of American global hegemony. Because air superiority relies on airfields, and a few airfield single-point targets cannot be maintained for long. They are too easy to be resolved (American global bases). The Western advantage in land power relies entirely on technological superiority in warfare. If China and the U.S. were to completely turn against each other, and China were to truly export advanced weapons to America's geopolitical strategic opponents, the Western advantage in land power, formed by technological superiority, would no longer exist.

So, I don't know what these so-called politicians and geostrategic masters of the foolish countries of the United States and the West are fussing about.
China and the U.S. either coexist peacefully and prosper together, or if interference is necessary, it will surely lead to war.
There are only two possible outcomes to end a war: nuclear war or conventional war.
Let's not even talk about nuclear war.
The result of ending a conventional war would inevitably be a complete falling out between China and the U.S. for decades, with the entire West losing sea power as the price.
Look at how a weak country like the Houthis, after obtaining anti-ship ballistic missiles, can suppress regional navies.
Once China decides it's done playing, and starts exporting technology, in fact, it doesn't even need to be China doing this; Russia, North Korea, Iran,
Turkey now all have the capability to develop ballistic missile technology to hit aircraft carriers, it's just that they are still 10-20 years away from technological optimization and development.
Moreover, their countries are relatively weak and too easily affected by sanctions. That's why their development is slow.

Why is Israel strong? Is it really because they are better at fighting than Arabs or Persians? Never. It's because they use technological superiority to create a situation where I can hit you, but you can't hit me. That's how they can cause so much trouble in the Middle East.

The U.S. and the West simply do not understand that originally, the Chinese thought globalization was great, and Western concepts were advanced, with no intention of challenging the Western order.
China's issue is that its own society is so large that not developing is actually unsafe. In fact, everyone could just sit down and talk. Instead, they insist on suppressing China, hoping to lock China in a position of perpetual division and backwardness.

The only price will be that the 400-year Western sea power advantage will be completely overturned, leading to the loss of all advantages, and subsequently bringing about the rise of Southern countries. This is what happens when you don't know when to stop.
 

ismellcopium

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Is this accurate? 万年炎帝 claims the air launched YJ-21 is just an air launched version of older SSM M-20 with 5-600km range, air launching extends to 800-1000km. But the ship/VL ASBM is actually called YJ-20, separate (staged) design, with range perhaps only >700km, shorter than previously reported.
 

charles18

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The core source of Western countries' advantage on this planet is that over the past 400 years since the Age of Discovery, they have gained a one-way right to attack through the superiority of maritime forces.
The only price will be that the 400-year Western sea power advantage will be completely overturned, leading to the loss of all advantages, and subsequently bringing about the rise of Southern countries. This is what happens when you don't know when to stop.
Admiral Lord Nelson was quoted, "A ship’s a fool to fight a fort."

We can think of the DF-26 missile as the technological successor to coastal artillery. With ASBM's coastal defenses can now hit ships at over 100 times the distances of what Admiral Nelson had to deal with "back in his days". This changes the equation.
The DF-26 is not an aircraft carrier killer, it is a general purpose ship killer. (except for submarines)
War is a numbers game.
The Chinese can build DF-26's at a cost and quantity to overwhelm any navy's military defenses and budget capacity.

The cost of launching a land based missile to hit a naval target is cheaper than trying to defend yourself against an incoming missile attack.
The cost equation favors coastal defenses.
The Chinese can now draw a big "red circle" with a radius of 4,000 km around China and say, "Any ship that enters this red circle can only do so with our acceptance."

I'm not saying warships are obsolete. I'm saying the days when warships can attack land based targets with impunity are over.
The American led order after WW2 is based on the idea that a warship, especially an aircraft carrier, can attack land based targets.
I think the majority of the military leadership understands this is no longer the case. However the way the American defense industry is set up there are too many Congress men and Contractors making money $$$ doing things the old ways. It took the sinking of 4 battleships at Pearl Harbor to convince Americans that the battleship was yesterday's technology. Hopefully it will not require the sinking of 4 aircraft carriers to educate people we are now entering a new world order.
 
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