China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[antiterror13]

Are you an idiot? Someone earlier said it was the JL-2, and I went “nope nope nope, it’s the JL-3”. Is there anything wrong with that? Are you blind?你是傻逼吗 前边有人说是JL-2 我说nonono JL-3 有问题吗 你是眼睛瞎了么？？

I can see your time won't be long here

 

[Blitzo]

Are you an idiot? Someone earlier said it was the JL-2, and I went “nope nope nope, it’s the JL-3”. Is there anything wrong with that? Are you blind?你是傻逼吗 前边有人说是JL-2 我说nonono JL-3 有问题吗 你是眼睛瞎了么？？

You only wrote "NONNONO JL-3" without any explanation for why you think it is, or any corroborating indicators or evidence.

Furthermore, "NONNONO JL-3" isn't even a complete sentence, and the "nonnono" is all in upper case, which conveys hostility, aggression or a "shouting" tone.



So it is natural for someone to ask what you are actually trying to say in a grammatically accurate sentence, and it is also reasonable for them to ask you to write in a more professional/comprehensible manner as well.

 

[talonn]

Anyway..... its already confirmed that the test was JL-2 and not JL-3 yes?

 

[Kalec]

Interesting thread by Decker Eveleth. Likely the test was planned long in advance and was not some sort of signalling exercise:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2074165703477711251

Both scenarios are possible. Although this was indeed planned several months or even years in advance, that doesn’t mean PLAN doesn’t have the flexibility to adjust the specific date based on actual circumstances. It is very true because the NOTAM indicated multiple launch windows across 6-8 July.

Provided that his claim is true - You meant just now, not earlier this noon (when the missile was actually launched from Bohai)?

@Kalec perhaps this is the second SL-ICBM test for today? Though so far, I haven't seen anyone on the Chinese side talking about it. The track seems to be similar to the other (standby) path shown earlier, though I'm still quitedoubtful about the veracity of this.

IMO we will need either Chinese or US to confirm or deny the launch point, everyone else is like hmmmm and I dont think there was any malfunction or 2nd launch yesterday.

 

[Ringsword]

*JL here refers to the SL-ICBMs (i.e., JuLang) instead of the AL-ICBMs (i.e., JingLei).

Because:
JL-1 - Would have been retired by now, alongside its sole carrier (i.e., the 092 SSBN). The missile also couldn't reach beyond 2000 kilometers. Hence, what for?
JL-3 - This is the latest SL-ICBM in active service with the PLAN. Hence, it is doubtful that they would unveil their latest strategic missile in a full-range test at this time (going by the same reasoning for the full-range test of the DF-31AG instead of the newer DF-41 conducted by the PLARF back in September 2024).
JL-4 - Not a thing yet, as this SL-ICBM is meant for the 096 SSBN. Besides, it's pretty doubtful for this under-development missile to conduct a full-range test, where things could go wrong (and can lead to accidental dropping of missile debris over unintended areas).

In addition, in the case of JL-3 and JL-4, where both SL-ICBMs are expected to have strike ranges above 10000 kilometers - Conducting a full-range test towards the South Pacific with a range of only about 7000 kilometers certainly seems weird.

On the other hand, there is no known submarine-launched ballistic (or even hypersonic) missile in the PLAN arsenal besides the JL-series with a strike range of 7000 kilometers.

So that leaves the JL-2 as the most probable missile deployed in this test.

AlsoIMHO ,the PLAN is being conservative and frugal by launching a still relevant/capable JL2 SLBM at near max range to validate system/tech/use up older weapons stocks and just before commissioning newer /more advanced JL3 SLBM