China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[hkvaryag]

Yes Liao Wang 1 is there for exactly this reason.
Which also means LW1 has been commissioned now.

But YW-5 is much further, I guess the re-entry is around there.

 

[magmunta]

Now that we've seen the test launches of the DF-31AG (by the PLARF) in 2024 and the JL-2 (by the PLAN) in 2026. Let's see when the PLAAF will test launch its JL-1, which would complete the demonstration of China's nuclear triad.

How do we know for sure that it was JL-2 instead of a few other candidates?

 

[Kalec]

Images of JL-2

 

[mack8]

Is this launch carried from a 094 SSBN or something else?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

How do we know for sure that it was JL-2 instead of a few other candidates?

*JL here refers to the SL-ICBMs (i.e., JuLang) instead of the AL-ICBMs (i.e., JingLei).

Because:
JL-1 - Would have been retired by now, alongside its sole carrier (i.e., the 092 SSBN). The missile also couldn't reach beyond 2000 kilometers. Hence, what for?
JL-3 - This is the latest SL-ICBM in active service with the PLAN. Hence, it is doubtful that they would unveil their latest strategic missile in a full-range test at this time (going by the same reasoning for the full-range test of the DF-31AG instead of the newer DF-41 conducted by the PLARF back in September 2024).
JL-4 - Not a thing yet, as this SL-ICBM is meant for the 096 SSBN. Besides, it's pretty doubtful for this under-development missile to conduct a full-range test, where things could go wrong (and can lead to accidental dropping of missile debris over unintended areas).

In addition, in the case of JL-3 and JL-4, where both SL-ICBMs are expected to have strike ranges above 10000 kilometers - Conducting a full-range test towards the South Pacific with a range of only about 7000 kilometers certainly seems weird.

On the other hand, there is no known submarine-launched ballistic (or even hypersonic) missile in the PLAN arsenal besides the JL-series with a strike range of 7000 kilometers.

So that leaves the JL-2 as the most probable missile deployed in this test.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Is this launch carried from a 094 SSBN or something else?

The 092 SSBN has been retired/reduced to a (moored) training vessel; hence, it is very doubtful that this boat will be utilized for this test.

The 096 SSBN hasn't even hit the water, so that's a definite no.

In the meantime, given the intended message (and their intended receivers) of this test (i.e., demonstrating the viability and capability of the undersea arm of China's nuclear triad), I think it is a very reasonable deduction (if not the only probable answer) that the boat involved in this test is one of the 094/A/B SSBNs (instead of the 032 SSB).

 

[Totoro]

I see no issue with PLAN testing (And showing off) the so called JL-3, as its the mainstay of their arsenal, with most boats using it. If any missile needs testing, it's JL-3, being newer, and not the old JL-2. Besides, the missile is, in essence, still a variant of the JL-2, it's not like it's some top secret super duper capability that's being showcased in this test. So unless there's an actual source saying "it's the old JL-2 for sure" then i'd still go with "we don't know which variant was tested".

I do wish a rather precise landing location becomes available shortly. All these ship location indications aren't precise enough for my liking.