China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[tamsen_ikard]

Your understanding is wrong, and multiple people have already corrected you, which you have ignored. Reality does not care about your misunderstanding. The reality is this:

1. The US does not operate any conventional ICBMs.

2. ICBM trajectories are distinct from shorter-ranged missiles.

3. Therefore if you see ICBMs launched, then you are already sure they are nuclear.

4. Since you are already sure, you retaliate in kind.

Neither Russia nor Israel nor anyone else has ever faced this kind of scenario in reality. As difficult as it may be to accept, there are in fact very good reasons to build silos, and the government—as well as everyone else here—does in fact know better than you.

Even if US does not operate any non-nuclear ICBM, there is no way to be sure that the ICBM US is launching against you is actually going to explode. it could be an empty warhead and the ICBM could just be a warning shot just to show China what US can do if China does X action.

All big 3 nuke powers have assured second strike capability. Which means, even if there is complete nuclear annihilation of all of China's big cities, China can still retaliate with its nuclear force which are guaranteed to survive such a strike. This is achieved by having road mobile missiles hiding in the mountains, 3000 KM long underground city of tunnels. Then there is also the nuclear subs.

Launching a retaliatory strike is a big decision akin to suicide bombing. You are essentially commiting suicide knowing that the other party will for sure destroy you too. I don't think any politician can make such a judgement call in the current political environment when they know second strike capability will survive.

That's why I don't see any country launching nukes on Warning. They will wait it out, see if this is done in error, see if this is just posturing. Once the missiles hit, bombs explode, then launch the missiles.

Finally, I want to point out that Launch on Warning is NOT China's current posture as verified by many nuclear experts. China does not mate its nukes with its missiles. Could it change in the future? It could. But right now its not. So, Chinese leader themselves are not worried about getting destroyed by Nukes all of a sudden.

 

[Wrought]

Even if US does not operate any non-nuclear ICBM, there is no way to be sure that the ICBM US is launching against you is actually going to explode. it could be an empty warhead and the ICBM could just be a warning shot just to show China what US can do if China does X action.

All big 3 nuke powers have assured second strike capability. Which means, even if there is complete nuclear annihilation of all of China's big cities, China can still retaliate with its nuclear force which are guaranteed to survive such a strike. This is achieved by having road mobile missiles hiding in the mountains, 3000 KM long underground city of tunnels. Then there is also the nuclear subs.

Launching a retaliatory strike is a big decision akin to suicide bombing. You are essentially commiting suicide knowing that the other party will for sure destroy you too. I don't think any politician can make such a judgement call in the current political environment when they know second strike capability will survive.

That's why I don't see any country launching nukes on Warning. They will wait it out, see if this is done in error, see if this is just posturing. Once the missiles hit, bombs explode, then launch the missiles.

Finally, I want to point out that Launch on Warning is NOT China's current posture as verified by many nuclear experts. China does not mate its nukes with its missiles. Could it change in the future? It could. But right now its not.

A warning shot without a warning? What a great way to get everyone killed, which is why I'm sure the US will say nothing whatsoever and just hope for the best while launching "warning" ICBMs. What kind of insane illogic is this? If you see those missiles in the air, then the decision is already made for you.

Good thing Beijing doesn't listen to the likes of you.

 

[sutton999]

The kind of strike Israel faced was even worse. They literally lost their military HQ and Spy HQ in Iranian misssile strikes. They lost huge economic and military installations. Again, no nuclear strike.

No, Iran barely hit any Israel military target. Off target by hundreds of meters.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

A warning shot without a warning? What a great way to get everyone killed, which is why I'm sure the US will say nothing whatsoever and just hope for the best while launching "warning" ICBMs. What kind of insane illogic is this?

Well then, that's why you are wrong. Good thing Beijing doesn't listen to the likes of you.

There is wide spectrum of potential ICBM strikes coming against you. It could be one ICBM, a few ICBM to a full blown first strike with 100s of ICBMS. It could be 1 ICBM exploding with nuke in an empty field (just as a warning). It could be a warning shot on a military target, again as a warning.

Are you going to do a full retaliatory strike with mass ICBMs of your own for all of these scenarios?

No, you are going to wait, assess the situation, think about all the geopolitical implications and then take action. Your own action could be proportional or disproportional depending on your goals. A full blown retaliatory strike is like suicide bombing, so your probably not going to that unless you are already sure that you are dead anyway.

Anyways, as I said before, this is my opinion based on my current understanding of world politics, and ofcourse China's own nuclear policy. We can agree to disagree.

 

[Wrought]

There is wide spectrum of potential ICBM strikes coming against you. It could be one ICBM, a few ICBM to a full blown first strike with 100s of ICBMS. It could be 1 ICBM exploding with nuke in an empty field (just as a warning). It could be a warning shot on a military target, again as a warning.

Are you going to do a full retaliatory strike with mass ICBMs of your own for all of these scenarios?

No, you are going to wait, assess the situation, think about all the geopolitical implications and then take action.

Anyways, as I said before, this is my opinion based on my current understanding of world politics, and ofcourse China's own nuclear policy. We can agree to disagree.

Proportional responses have been in nuclear doctrines for decades now. Nobody said you need to launch everything if you don't see everything coming at you. Are you wilfully ignoring the entirety of the Cold War, or just ignorant of it?

It's not a disagreement, you're literally just wrong. And I'm just the latest one in a long line to remind you of that.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

There is wide spectrum of potential ICBM strikes coming against you. It could be one ICBM, a few ICBM to a full blown first strike with 100s of ICBMS. It could be 1 ICBM exploding with nuke in an empty field (just as a warning). It could be a warning shot on a military target, again as a warning.

Are you going to do a full retaliatory strike with mass ICBMs of your own for all of these scenarios?

Are you dense? Nobody is going to launch a full scale retaliatory strike if there is only a few ICBMs incoming. Retaliatory strikes would only be launched if a high number of incoming ICBMs are incoming.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Proportional responses have been in nuclear doctrines for decades now. Nobody said you need to launch everything if you don't see everything coming at you. Are you wilfully ignoring the entirety of the Cold War, or just ignorant of it?

It's not a disagreement, you're literally just wrong. And I'm just the latest one in a long line to remind you of that.

I am wrong and yet China is not worried enough to have Launch on Warning for the last 60 years. Clearly they understand world politics and US politics better than you. Anyone with a cursory understanding of US will know there is no president now or coming in the next 10 years who will commit national suicide by Launching mass nuke Attack against China. There is no viable scenario for that to happen. Even if China invades all of West Pacific, its not happening. Even if a madman became president and ordered such a strike, US military leader will likely refuse to execute it.

So, Chinese leaders have wisely understood that its better to prevent Nuclear accidents or rogue operator launching a nuke rather than worrying about losing second strike capability in a mass US launched first strike. That's why China keeps nukes away from its launchers.

Here is the bottom line. China cannot do Launch on Warning now. And in my opinion, based on current world politics and US politics and China's own internal politics, China will likely never do launch on warning.

 

[Wrought]

I am wrong and yet China is not worried enough to have Launch on Warning for the last 60 years. Clearly they understand world politics and US politics better than you. Anyone with a cursory understanding of US will know there is no president now or coming in the next 10 years who will commit national suicide by Launching mass nuke Attack against China. There is no viable scenario for that to happen. Even if China invades all of West Pacific, its not happening.

So, they have wisely understood that its better to prevent Nuclear accidents or rogue operator launching a nuke rather than worrying about losing second strike capability in a mass US launched first strike. That's why China keeps nukes away from its launchers.

Here is the bottom line. China cannot do Launch on Warning now. And in my opinion, based on current world politics and US politics and China's own internal politics, China will likely never do launch on warning.

Yes, you are wrong. Unlike you, the government understands that circumstances have continually changed over the past 60 years, and they must change with them. Which is why they are implementing launch-on-warning, as has been widely reported for several years now. Unlike you, I don't make stupid claims about silos or policies. The only thing I am claiming—and proving—is that you are wrong.

Launch on Warning (LOW).v The PLA is implementing a launch-on warning posture, called “early warning counterstrike” (预警反击)…PLA writings suggest multiple manned C2 organs are involved in this process, warned by space and ground based sensors, and that this posture is broadly similar to the US and Russian LOW posture. The PRC probably seeks to keep at least a portion of its force, especially its new silo-based units, on a LOW posture, and since 2017, the PLARF has conducted exercises involving early warning of a nuclear strike and launch on warning responses.68

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Yes, you are wrong. Unlike you, the government understands that circumstances have continually changed over the past 60 years, and they must change with them. Which is why they are implementing launch-on-warning, as has been widely reported for several years now. Unlike you, I don't make stupid claims about silos or policies. The only thing I am claiming—and proving—is that you are wrong.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I will be happy to be proven wrong when we see clear evidence that active Chinese ICBM units are mated with their nukes. Until that happens, its still just testing capability or testing command and control of Launch On Warning. Not actual change in nuclear doctrine, which is a political decision, not a technical one.

 

[Wrought]

I will be happy to be proven wrong when we see clear evidence that active Chinese ICBM units are mated with their nukes. Until that happens, its still just testing capability not actual change in nuclear doctrine, which is a political decision, not a technical one.

Right, let me just call my CMC friend real quick and see if he can get you a live tour.