China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
It is so funny that almost every positive advocate in this article is wrong & won't happen and every negative denunciation is factually true.
This is pretty much a lie. After establishing its initial deterrent, having a weak economy, China decided to save on the nuclear ramp up.
But the modernization and expansion of the Chinese nuclear deterrent predates Xi coming to power. The DF-31 entered service in 2006. Back when Hu Jintao was in power. And the program was probably started when Jiang Zemin was in control. The DF-41 program likely started when Hu Jintao was in power and entered service when Xi was in power.
As China's economy grows its defense spending and deterrence must also increase in order to prevent aggressive foreign leaders from wanting to attack China. In order not to have a repeat of the Century of Humiliation.
Due to the much larger Chinese economy and improved technology making the production of the expanded arsenal cheaper this is an insignificant cost to prevent a really bad outcome.
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Actually China only maintained a minimum deterrence posture as late as 2015. After the DF-31/A entered serviced, China maintained one brigade of DF-31 (if I remember correctly) consisted of 8 launchers, plus three brigades of DF-31A (8 launchers per brigade, 24 launchers total). The rest of the ICBM force were liquid-fuelled 18 DF-5As and 6 DF-4s. Only 42 single-warheaded ICBMs were capable of reaching CONUS, whilst 14 were deployed against European Russia. The DF-5As were pretty much 1960s Titan IIs with smaller warheads.
It wasn’t until 2017 when we saw the initial deployment of DF-31AG on TELs, signalling that China finally has something similar to the Topol M/Yars. DF-41s entered service around 2019, whilst the number of deployed DF-31AGs exploded. The number of mobile ICBMs manned by a PLARF brigade increased from 8 to 12. Then comes the wind farms in Summer 2021. Meanwhile, China stopped reporting its WGPu stockpile in 2017 to the IAEA. Finally China achieved a somewhat credible sea-based deterrence by late 2010s with the JL-2s onboard 094 boomers. Again JL-2s were only able to cover European Russia and India when launched from the bastions in Bohai Sea or South China Sea, not to mention the noice could be heard from patrolling USN SSNs.
Looking back, it seemed like China’s nuclear “breakout” was planned as part of Xi’s 2015 Military Reform but took viagra after the breakdown of U.S.-China Relations starting in 2018. The last two 094s could carry JL-3 SLBMs to hit CONUS, but I am skeptical how reliable of a second strike platform the 094 is given its noise level when facing the U.S. (India and Russia, not a problem).
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It takes time to develop a whole new weapon system. In the case of the DF-41 they also had to import technology of the TEL vehicles from Belarus and make it 100% in China. So the idea it was all because of Xi coming to power is ridiculous. These systems take a decade or more to develop.
I wonder how North Korea was able to advance so quickly. They had their own “breakout” in 2017. Within 7 years, they now have a DF-41/Yars.
I appreciate you posting this and sparing me the time it would have taken to click the link and then click x.
This new reports is hilarious. i still don't get it, how these people can always be wrong. LOL
DF-41 existence leaked back in 2012 when Xi didn't even have CMC control .. DF-41 program started during Hu Jintao tenure ..
if we follow the pattern of DF-41 then we are very close to next generation DF-XX ICBM ..
@ChongqingHotPot92 ..
Well research into the DF-41 started in the early 1990s. But due to a lack of priority and funding, by the time Xi came to power in 2013, there was still I guarantee that it would be a successful project. And the TEL started testing around mid. 2013.
The first flight of DF-41 occurred in July 2012. Hmmm didn’t realise it was that early. But it wasn’t deployed until 2020. I wonder why it took so long
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of course actual research and development goes back to Jiang's time .. but major work has done during Hu Jintao time ..
if i remember correctly DF-41 get operational status in 2017 and officially unveiled to public during 70th National day parade in 2019.. it took time but not that much..