Is this an ICBM test or just a medium range missile?
China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
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Is this an ICBM test or just a medium range missile?
manqiangrexue
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09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
Re-posting a lost image. (1920 × 1080)
www.sinodefenceforum.com
As the above post says, measurements of actual missile containers suggest jl2 is a few meters shorter than df31. Possibly a bit narrower as well.
So direct comparison may not be advisable.
Also, given the development timelines, it's plausible jl-2 had quite a bit of df-31A tech/input, rather than just relying on df-31 (non A) tech.
Wanwanese:
Exactly.
This sort of reporting is actually great for PRC to show ROC civilians and policy makers that the Americans have zero interest in preserving Taiwanese lives. They want to exploit Taiwanese lives and don't mind whatever happens to the island. The intention is to damage China as much as they can and what better way to try do that than to exploit the Chinese Civil War which like the Korean one, has not ended.
Taiwanese policy makers and civilians are not yet entirely aware that the US does not mind nuking them if it means hurting PRC even just so slightly. The problem with the US policy is that China now has more than decent enough second strike on the US itself and has more than enough justification to enhance their stockpile while continuing with radical new delivery system developments. HGV is but one method available to Chinese secondary strike arsenal.
From 300 active warheads in the 1980s to 1000 in recent years and soon to build up to 3000 active warheads.
Combine Russia's 3000 or so and the US and allies have a lot more to think about before stumbling into nuclear exchange. Japan and South Korea are incentivised to tighten the leash on the Americans if they understand it is their existence on the line when it comes to even just North Korean arsenal. US nukes Taiwan island in event of PRC take over = NK and Russia escalating as soon as China retaliates with total exchange against US and Europe. Throw Israel in there while we're at it. No one comes out of it.
Result is US allies and vassals will put all the pressure they can on US whenever the US even hints at considering such a play. It is their lives on the line first and their responsibility to reign in the guy with the least to lose. Europe would be annihilated in nuclear exchange with Russia. Japan and South Korea would be annihilated in nuclear exchange with China and NK. It is the US (not China) pushing for considering first strike. US can start it, China will end it.
I don't think the US is above nuclear blackmail.
In fact, US nuclear doctrine isn't MAD like most people think.
It is preemptive counterforce.
This means the US would attempt to destroy all adversary nuclear forces in a first strike which prevents retaliation.
When people say "Russia has 6k nukes" they're technically correct, but in reality there are only about <200 hardened nuclear targets in Russia that would need to be nuked in order to prevent Russian nuclear retaliation (And this isn't even getting into how the US was very good at tracking Soviet nuclear subs etc)
That's because Russia's missiles are heavily MIRV'd, and there are roughly a thousand or so total warheads ready to launch.
Situation's similar in China although it is clear PRC planners realize their nuclear deterrent is not adequate and have adjusted accordingly.
Bottom line is (and they could be overconfident here), they think they can come out of MAD on top.
This is extremely dangerous as it greatly increases the chance of them using nuclear blackmail.
Does China have 1000 warheads already? This is the first time I'm heading this news. Do you have any sources?
Russia has launch on warning and constant Topol patrols in the middle of Siberia. US couldn't track Scuds in the middle of a desert with air supremacy and physically overflying the search area. A Topol with its engines idling under a tree with no planes overhead is effectively invisible.
Same with China. China's filled with mountainous jungles and urban areas. If they can't kill Iraqi Scuds in the desert what are they going to do about trying to find TELs with thousands of urban tunnels, forests and mountains where they don't have any overflying real time sensor assets?
I also decided to fact check the 200 targets claim. It's wrong. I know who it's from, some dumbshit reddit troll who sexpats in Taiwan and thinks he's a white Taiwanese.
So there's 18 mobile Topol-M, 60 stationary Topol-M, 36 original mobile Topols, 136 Yars mobile and 24 Yars silos, all listed under Operators. Already more than 200 so I don't need to count anymore.
That's not even counting Russian liquid ICBMs, subs or IRBMs.
just 2 of their most recent ground based solid rockets.
They also stopped publishing data when US dropped out of START.
Russia could basically nuke the whole EU just with tactical cruise missile salvos launched with the Tu-95 if they wanted to.
A single Tu-95 can carry 8x Kh-102 stealth cruise missiles with 2500 km range. Each has a 200 kt warhead.
Even if only like a third of their bombers were operational, like 20 or them, that is like 160 missiles in a single salvo.
The Tu-160 can also fire the Kh-102. Each can carry 12x Kh-102.
Several years ago the Russians fired Kalibr missiles from Buyan-M corvettes in the Caspian Sea that hit ISIL targets in Syria. The Kalibr also has an estimated 2500 km range. And can carry a tactical nuclear warhead. Each corvette can carry 8 missiles and fire them in ripple volleys. The Russians have like a dozen such ships. And another four Karakurts which can do the same.
All the Yasen-M submarines (32 VLS cells), Project 20385 corvettes (8 VLS cells), and Project 22350 frigates (16 VLS cells) can also fire the Kalibr.
A 4500 km range variant of the Kalibr is being developed that will fit in all available naval VLS.
The Russians can basically nuke a whole continent without even using the ballistic missiles.
They also have a waste amount of warheads in service now that they put MIRVs back on their mobile and submarine launchers after the US left the ABM Treaty.
A single Tu-95 can carry 8x Kh-102 stealth cruise missiles with 2500 km range. Each has a 200 kt warhead.
Even if only like a third of their bombers were operational, like 20 or them, that is like 160 missiles in a single salvo.
The Tu-160 can also fire the Kh-102. Each can carry 12x Kh-102.
Several years ago the Russians fired Kalibr missiles from Buyan-M corvettes in the Caspian Sea that hit ISIL targets in Syria. The Kalibr also has an estimated 2500 km range. And can carry a tactical nuclear warhead. Each corvette can carry 8 missiles and fire them in ripple volleys. The Russians have like a dozen such ships. And another four Karakurts which can do the same.
All the Yasen-M submarines (32 VLS cells), Project 20385 corvettes (8 VLS cells), and Project 22350 frigates (16 VLS cells) can also fire the Kalibr.
A 4500 km range variant of the Kalibr is being developed that will fit in all available naval VLS.
The Russians can basically nuke a whole continent without even using the ballistic missiles.
They also have a waste amount of warheads in service now that they put MIRVs back on their mobile and submarine launchers after the US left the ABM Treaty.
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No that is US propaganda BS !!
US have no way of tracking Russian SSBN because they are protected in bastion area like the Sea of Okhotsk for their pacific fleet and hide under iceberg for their northern fleet !
From the above picture you can see that Russian SSN and SSBN are in total dominate position, waiting to slaughter US SSNs then moment when they get in place !
If US have the ability to neutralize China or Russia's nuclear weapons, US would started a nuclear war instead of a trade war !! They would also have interfered the war in Ukraine !
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I do not obviously but I believe it is fairly easy to conclude.
China had roughly 300 active warheads by its own admission and foreign estimation around the end of the 1980s. We won't speculate on yield of warheads but lets assume city busters since - total number is relatively low, no real regional targets then that would require some sort of MAD.
Since 1990 China's economy has 50x. Industrial ability immeasurably improved.
MIC and no. of long range and IRBM (for regional targets up to and including most of north Africa) have increased.
Annual training and exercise expenditure of ballistic missile firing increased.
Tensions and security concerns increased. Hostility from US increased since 1990.
Nuclear reactor no.s (esp breeder type and refinement facilities) would only have increased over time even if older ones decommission.
Lifespan of Yu-Min warhead configuration design allows for longer lifespan as far as it is speculated.