China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[taxiya]

Something really wild happened last night. Five NOTAMs and something launched from Taiyuan

At the first glance it looks like an ABM test but no news came out or they failed? Anyway it doesn't look like a typical Chinese ABM compared to the previous tests.

Or it could be an ICBM with a HGV warhead? But how it could come with two large NOTAMs after deviating from ballistic trajectory.
View attachment 124304


NOTAM data:

The drop zones look very like HGV instead of ballistic missile. A good comparision is to launch in #626.

For a two staged ballistic missile, the first stage is close to the launch site, the 2nd stage is close to the target because the 2nd stage has the same velocity and trojectory as the warhead after cut-off, it will follow the war head but only landed earlier due to its large size and shape.

On the other hand, in HGV the boosters will burn a shorter time and dumped closer to the launch site.

It is interesting that there are two terminal zones meaning two war-heads if it is indead HGV. The 2nd war-head seems to be doing maneuver simulating air-defence zone avoidance.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Silo lid problem fixed. DF-31AG is being retired and replaced by DF-41.

Sorry, source?

 

[Kalec]

Silo lid problem fixed. DF-31AG is being retired and replaced by DF-41.

The story below can't be independently verified:

The story i got updated is they fixed the lid problem and probably are still fixing the rest of them for almost a year since the problem occurred in the middle of 2023

The original idea is to somewhat replicate the “superhardened” silo like the MX basing option, range from 10,000 psi to 15,000 psi. And the engineers concluded that there is no way to achieve 10,000 psi resistance by the lid only so they have to put a layer of protection measure over the lid.

When launched, the protection measure should be blown away or the lid should break out from the layer. However, neither of these design came out 100% successful in a test in Jilantai so they have to fix it.

So basically nothing changed from the last story but rumors said they fix it but it took them a well to fix all of them and they are probably still trying to fix them.


For example here is a Chinese silo, the silo lid is not as visible as its US or Russian counterpart, it could be part of result that they are allegedly covered with a layer of mud/concrete.

But here is the problem, I can see a vague shape of the silo lid from the satellite so I wonder if the story of "concrete covering" is really the case or just rumor mill's fantasy. However yeah, if one looks at the Russian silo, the silo lid is clearly above the ground and much more visible than the Chinese. And some of the Chinese silo is literally like there is nothing there, I can't see the lid myself, so the story could be true or it has to be related with the lid problem.

My conclusion: PLARF is definitely trying to cover the lid with something to hide them (futilely) and there is a high probability that it has something to do with lid problem.

Yumen silo:


Ordos silo:


Russian silo lid for example:

SS-27 silo


Or SS-18 silo lid:

.

 

[Maikeru]

Seems really pointless to try to hide silos when their positions are exactly known to any nation with the capability and intent of targeting them.

 

[Kalec]

The drop zones look very like HGV instead of ballistic missile. A good comparision is to launch in #626.

For a two staged ballistic missile, the first stage is close to the launch site, the 2nd stage is close to the target because the 2nd stage has the same velocity and trojectory as the warhead after cut-off, it will follow the war head but only landed earlier due to its large size and shape.

On the other hand, in HGV the boosters will burn a shorter time and dumped closer to the launch site.

It is interesting that there are two terminal zones meaning two war-heads if it is indead HGV. The 2nd war-head seems to be doing maneuver simulating air-defence zone avoidance.

In fact, I got a confirmation that the Jan. 29th launch is a warhead test instead of ICBM test, it was launched by DF-5.

Seems really pointless to try to hide silos when their positions are exactly known to any nation with the capability and intent of targeting them.

My source told me it is not about hiding, but hardening the silo to over 10,000 psi or 15,000 psi.

The idea is probably to increase the silo hardness to a point that it will have assured safety from conventional attack, e.g. LRASM, JASSM-ER. Russia's silos are still vulnerable to such conventional weapon as its hardness is around 1,500 psi.

Here is another comparison when the Chinese silo hatch is not covered by something, clearly visible as well.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

In fact, I got a confirmation that the Jan. 29th launch is a warhead test instead of ICBM test, it was launched by DF-5.


My source told me it is not about hiding, but hardening the silo to over 10,000 psi or 15,000 psi.

The idea is probably to increase the silo hardness to a point that it will have assured safety from conventional attack, e.g. LRASM, JASSM-ER. Russia's silos are still vulnerable to such conventional weapon as its hardness is around 1,500 psi.

Here is another comparison when the Chinese silo hatch is not covered by something, clearly visible as well.

View attachment 124996

How would a simple dirt or concrete covering harden a position by an order of magnitude?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

How would a simple dirt or concrete covering harden a position by an order of magnitude?

Another question is how do you get it out of the way when you want to launch?

 

[taxiya]

How believable is this "lid problem" compared to "water fuel"?

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Another question is how do you get it out of the way when you want to launch?

You can blow it out using well-placed just-powerful-enough charges similar (but not exactly the same) to the ejection seats on fighter planes. But such designed would make the silos unnecessarily complex to operate, if not more fragile to changing environmental factors. You want your silos to be as rugged as an AK-47 (capable of dropping its loads even under severe adverse environmental conditions), not the first generation M16.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

How believable is this "lid problem" compared to "water fuel"?

More likely than water fuel. This is the first time the PRC's MIC is building hardened ICBM silos en masses. There's bound to be lots of quality control and operational issues when 320 of them are being constructed all at once. The previous 18 DF-5 silos in Henan and Hunan weren't that hardened, and they still took more than 10 years to be completed and became operational. Keep in mind that the PRC's nuclear deterrence posture arguably remained in name only until the DF-31A and DF-31AG became operational. It was only under Xi that China changed from a posture of minimum/limited deterrence to pursuing parity.