China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[sunnymaxi]

Tbh I would have been lying if I said it was all right for Chinese rocket industry/PLARF in 2023. Every leaderships of Chinese rocket industry were ousted in 2023 but it won't change the whole picture anyway, mostly delayed for several months or even one year. Ship industry gets their leadership ousted over and over again and I don't see Type 055 construction slowing down then what's the problem.

removal of any commander has nothing to do with Military equipment development/progress. all these commanders are symbolic. the real power held by three big Men in Central military commission. the day Xi Jinping remove second in command. then it will be worrisome.. so ICBM/or any other military equipment production will continue as usual..

Dude you are reading my mind, that's exactly what I am advocating. DF-5 has no economical value, more vulnerable to the first strike. But they are still renovating these old DF-5 with a Sarmat-like ICBM, estimated to be deployed in late 2020s.

this one i don't understand. when next generation silo based heavy ICBM is about to come. why they are still counting DF-5 ICBM. its time to replace DF-5 with DF-45/DF-XX ..

 

[sunnymaxi]

In that case, shouldn't the PLARF begins retiring the DF-5 series (or pretty much all liquid-fueled ICBMs) already - In favor for pursuing an all-soild fuel ICBM fleet centered around DF-31AG and DF-41?

Don't forget about DF-45 .. next generation silo based Heavy ICBM.. likely to come in 2 years.

 

[Blitzo]

I mean I have been hearing the rumor regarding the silo lid misfunction for a well, probably for half a year. Lol US intelligence is so fast that they published the story months later than my rumor mill.

They allegedly design the solid silo with a layer of protection over it in bid to absorb the incoming attack but somehow the lid can't be properly opened since then. And they failed a consequent test last year to open the silo lid, so that's it. IMO they still have like 2 years to fix this up before the real ICBM is coming into the silo, not a very big deal.

The water rocket part is funnier, I wish they actually did it. I am not in favor of liquid ICBM anyway and at least water rocket won't blow oneself away like hypergolic rockets. Seriously it seems to be a complete BS, China has 5 DF-5 brigades, 2.5 of them are not having active deployment at all at this moment, and the other 2.5 are so old that their ICBM is symbolic anyway, namely 661/633/631 BGD. Their fuel tanks are probably empty for most of their times because DF-5A/B are NOT designed to be have storable fuel.

My understanding was that the newer DF-5 variants were intended to have liquid fuels that were "more storable" compared to past liquid fuels which necessitated to be fueled immediately before launch?

Tbh I would have been lying if I said it was all right for Chinese rocket industry/PLARF in 2023. Every leaderships of Chinese rocket industry were ousted in 2023 but it won't change the whole picture anyway, mostly delayed for several months or even one year. Ship industry gets their leadership ousted over and over again and I don't see Type 055 construction slowing down then what's the problem.

Honestly, the ICBM/PLARF aspect seems somewhat less consequential than the implications of what has been going on for the space launch vehicle/rocket sector, in terms of pursuits of new technologies versus old technologies, and how the new leadership may push things in the age of VTVL and proven private space launch companies like SpaceX, but this is more relevant for the Space thread.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

They allegedly design the solid silo with a layer of protection over it in bid to absorb the incoming attack but somehow the lid can't be properly opened since then. And they failed a consequent test last year to open the silo lid, so that's it. IMO they still have like 2 years to fix this up before the real ICBM is coming into the silo, not a very big deal.

Well I agree. It is the first time China is constructing hardened silos en masses. So it is not surprising at all to see some initially quality issues and other mishaps. I expect them to be fixed and loaded by 2027 (they got plenty of time).

With regard to the water tank saga, I find this story weird as well. PLARF is know to test hundreds of missiles in live firing exercises every year. If there were large quantities of water filled fake missiles, they would have been exposed through random sampling during these exercises. The only explanation then is either the Xi chose to ignore the problem until now, or the US Gov is deliberately exaggerating the issue to downplay China’s challenge, so US-China Relations become less of a hot button issue for Biden during election year ( or simply don’t want the relationship to blow up by downplaying China threat).

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Don't forget about DF-45 .. next generation silo based Heavy ICBM.. likely to come in 2 years.

I think the 48 silos (18 old, 30 recently constructed) for the DF-5 are intended for new generations of DF-5B/C, which have more storable fuel. The DF-5B/C have such a huge payload for more than just warheads. They can carry FOBS, unmanned space crafts (or near-space warfare), and other hypersonic vehicles.

 

[sunnymaxi]

I think the 48 silos (18 old, 30 recently constructed) for the DF-5 are intended for new generations of DF-5B/C, which have more storable fuel. The DF-5B/C have such a huge payload for more than just warheads. They can carry FOBS, unmanned space crafts (or near-space warfare), and other hypersonic vehicles.

yeah.. but next generation DF-45 coming too .. and i think this missile is likely to replace old DF-5 ICBMs in silos. and total number of silos are under construction is way more than 48. its in hundreds. remember in 2022 year satellite images leaked.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

yeah.. but next generation DF-45 coming too .. and i think this missile is likely to replace old DF-5 ICBMs in silos. and total number of silos are under construction is way more than 48. its in hundreds. remember last year satellite images leaked

Sorry I mean the 48 is for liquid fuel missiles (size of DF-5, Titan II, and Satan). The new hardened ones with quality issues are the ones in Western China for DF-31/41. There bound to be quality issues and mishaps when so many of them (320 total in Yumen, Hami, and Ordos, all new designed for solid fuel missiles) were constructed all at once. It is very difficult to maintain quality control and effective inspection in such a short time frame when so much is going in. Seems like it is an accountability-induced quality mishap.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Sorry I mean the 48 is for liquid fuel missiles (size of DF-5, Titan II, and Satan). The new hardened ones with quality issues are the ones in Western China for DF-31/41. There bound to be quality issues and mishaps when so many of them (320 total in Yumen, Hami, and Ordos, all new designed for solid fuel missiles) were constructed all at once. It is very difficult to maintain quality control and effective inspection in such a short time frame when so much is going in. Seems like it is an accountability-induced quality mishap.

Yeah. so its very much crowded now. my only question is, why PLARF keeping DF-5 ICBM still despite have many options. its better for them to replace all those old missiles with DF-45/DF-XX and should keep solid fuel ICBMs fleet ..

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Yeah. so its very much crowded now. my only question is, why PLARF keeping DF-5 ICBM still despite have many options. its better for them to replace all those old missiles with DF-45/DF-XX and should keep solid fuel ICBMs fleet ..

What do we know about the DF-45? Is it a DF-41 sized ICBM (diameter no more than 2.25 meters, length around 20 meters), or a DF-5 sized missile (diameter 3-3.5 meters, length 30-40 meters)? The latter would require the usage of the large unhardened mountain silos (currently occupied by DF-5s) Henan and Hunan.

 

[Zhejiang]

I mean I have been hearing the rumor regarding the silo lid misfunction for a well, probably for half a year. Lol US intelligence is so fast that they published the story months later than my rumor mill.

They allegedly design the solid silo with a layer of protection over it in bid to absorb the incoming attack but somehow the lid can't be properly opened since then. And they failed a consequent test last year to open the silo lid, so that's it. IMO they still have like 2 years to fix this up before the real ICBM is coming into the silo, not a very big deal.

The water rocket part is funnier, I wish they actually did it. I am not in favor of liquid ICBM anyway and at least water rocket won't blow oneself away like hypergolic rockets. Seriously it seems to be a complete BS, China has 5 DF-5 brigades, 2.5 of them are not having active deployment at all at this moment, and the other 2.5 are so old that their ICBM is symbolic anyway, namely 661/633/631 BGD. Their fuel tanks are probably empty for most of their times because DF-5A/B are NOT designed to be have storable fuel.

Tbh I would have been lying if I said it was all right for Chinese rocket industry/PLARF in 2023. Every leaderships of Chinese rocket industry were ousted in 2023 but it won't change the whole picture anyway, mostly delayed for several months or even one year. Ship industry gets their leadership ousted over and over again and I don't see Type 055 construction slowing down then what's the problem.

Couldn’t a solid fuel rocket also have water in it if that intel is true, what I doubt it is. Why could it only be a liquid fuel rocket that could and not a solid fuel one?