China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[Kalec]

Another test from Jilantai or Taiyuan looks like a HGV or at least terminally maneuverable RV with an ICBM as booster on 7 Dec.



Notam info:

A4572/25 NOTAMN Q) ZLHW/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3939N10522E017 A) ZLHW B) 2512070709 C) 2512070819 E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N395115E1053743-N395529E1051606-N392842E1050624-N392402E1052830, ,BACK TO START.VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL. AIRCRAFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE AREA. F) SFC G) UNL

A4573/25 NOTAMN Q) ZXXX/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4114N09540E045 A) ZLHW ZWUQ B) 2512070709 C) 2512070819 E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N414759E0961927-N414733E0950303-N404337E0950334-N404130E0961703, ,BACK TO START.VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL. AIRCRAFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE AREA. F) SFC G) UNL

A4575/25 NOTAMN Q) ZXXX/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4115N09253E046 A) ZLHW ZWUQ B) 2512070709 C) 2512070819 E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N414707E0933551-N414723E0920956-N404310E0921029-N404408E0933558, ,BACK TO START.VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL. AIRCRAFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE AREA. F) SFC G) UNL

A4576/25 NOTAMN Q) ZWUQ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3705N08225E044 A) ZWUQ B) 2512070709 C) 2512070819 E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N374850E0822142-N363224E0815051-N362134E0822820-N373841E0825745, ,BACK TO START.VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL. AIRCRAFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE AREA F) SFC G) UNL

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

I am completely puzzled by Hui Zhang, what does he even mean by this.

In his new book, he concluded:
"535" has a yield of 425 kt with weight range of 170-250kg.
“5x5” has a yield range of 78-120kt with an estimated weight of 110kg.

Have to say he is very bullish on 90s Chinese technology, also I hope I get it wrong but it seems to me that Hui Zhang makes a thinly veiled malicious speculation that China completely copied W76 and W88 lol.

View attachment 165673
View attachment 165674

What is the name of this book/paper? Do you have the link? Thanks.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Something weird happening. ICBM from nowhere to nowhere.

View attachment 166082

A weird one indeed. Seems to be launching out of nowhere in Xizang instead of the usual rocket launch sites, and with its end point located somewhere in the Northern Pacific.

By roughly extrapolating the path eastwards and assuming a completely straight line path, it seems that the ICBM would end up somewhere to the south of the Hawaiian Islands.



Furthermore, if this is indeed an ICBM test - Then this would also be the first time for an ICBM test conducted by China which overflies both Japan AND Russia.

Also, any idea on when this test is due to occur?

 

[00CuriousObserver]

Worth noting that YuanWang 6 and 7 are in the South Pacific

 

[Sierra]

Also, any idea on when this test is due to occur?

13th

 

[Kalec]

Now the mystery remains for what these NOTAMs are for, never seen ICBM test in this direction.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Now the mystery remains for what these NOTAMs are for, never seen ICBM test in this direction.

View attachment 166172

Any development on this news?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I was quite hesitated on whether I should post it but just for a matter of record for myself and openness on nuclear armament. So please don't repost it (not like everyone will buy into it) or quote me as well.

The next-gen SLBM will have a diameter of 2.3 meters.

The 713rd Institute, responsible to design naval launch system, published a bidding saying that they want to acquire a elastic sealing ring for the initial installation position (Φ1626mm) and the position of the missile cylindrical section (Φ2300mm).


For a missile as large as 2300mm in diameter, I can think of nothing but SLBM, so the next-gen SLBM (JL-3/4) will be like M51.2 in diameter and a shock absorber at the top of launch tube like Trident D5.

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Just looking back at the JL-4 SL-ICBM, and back to this.

Should the JL-4 have a diameter of 2.3 meters - What would likely be the inner diameter of the missile tube of the JL-4?

 

[pir3sd]

A weird one indeed. Seems to be launching out of nowhere in Xizang instead of the usual rocket launch sites, and with its end point located somewhere in the Northern Pacific.

By roughly extrapolating the path eastwards and assuming a completely straight line path, it seems that the ICBM would end up somewhere to the south of the Hawaiian Islands.

View attachment 166083

Furthermore, if this is indeed an ICBM test - Then this would also be the first time for an ICBM test conducted by China which overflies both Japan AND Russia.

Also, any idea on when this test is due to occur?

wher

Now the mystery remains for what these NOTAMs are for, never seen ICBM test in this direction.

View attachment 166172

Where are the NOTAMs coming from, no date?

 

[magmunta]

China military power report 2025 to be published today? I am curious of what has happened to the 20-wheeler df-51/df-45. Let's wait and see