China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

magmunta

Junior Member
Registered Member
First(?) official departure from 60-year-old nuclear posture:

"Accelerate the development of advanced combat capabilities. Strengthen strategic deterrence forces to uphold global strategic balance and stability."

———— The first Agenda of the Military Section in the 15th Five-Year Plan of CCP


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Absolutely, the Chinese saw how the west has chickened out since 2022 due to Russian nukes, so china wants a nuclear parity with the USA. That having being accomplished guarantees that the USA won't interfere in the conquest of Taiwan by china. That's smart from Chinese viewpoint.
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
Full text of section 14. I think a lot is lost in translation:

"14. Achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the army as scheduled, and promote the modernization of national defense and the army with high quality

Consolidating national defense and strengthening the army is the strategic support for Chinese-style modernization. In accordance with the new "three-step" strategy of national defense and military modernization, promote political military construction, reform and strengthening the army, strengthening the army with science and technology, strengthening the army with talents, and governing the army according to law.

(53) Accelerate the construction of advanced combat effectiveness. Strengthen strategic deterrence and maintain global strategic balance and stability. Promote the large-scale, actual combat, and systematic development of new domains and new quality combat forces, accelerate the construction of unmanned intelligent combat forces and countermeasure capabilities, and strengthen the upgrading and transformation of traditional combat forces. Coordinate the construction and application of network information systems, strengthen the development and utilization of data resources, and build an intelligent military system. Accelerate the construction of modern logistics. Implement major national defense development projects, step up national defense scientific and technological innovation and advanced technology transformation, and accelerate the development of advanced weapons and equipment. Optimize the military human resources policy system, improve the level of education in military academies, and create a phalanx of high-quality and professional new military talents. Implement the project to promote the modernization of military theory. Deepen strategy and combat planning, solidly promote actual combat military training, strengthen the integration of combat capability systems, innovate the construction and application mode of combat effectiveness, and enhance the pertinence, initiative, and shaping power of military struggle.

(54) Promote the modernization of military governance. Improve the leadership and management system and mechanism of the people's army, and adjust and optimize the joint combat system. Strengthen and improve strategic management, deepen the overall planning of combat readiness, strengthen the traction of combat needs, innovate management methods and means, and improve the operational efficiency of military systems and the use of national defense resources. Strengthen the consultation and evaluation of major decisions and the supervision of major projects, promote the reform of military budget management, improve the military procurement system, improve the statistical evaluation system for military construction, fully implement the principle of diligence and thrift in building the army, and take the path of high efficiency, low cost and sustainable development. Continue to deepen political rectification and training, carry forward fine traditions, and strengthen the rectification and governance of key industries and fields. Deepen the construction of the rule of law in the military, strengthen the supply and supervision of the implementation of laws and regulations, and improve the military rule of law system with Chinese characteristics.

(55) Consolidate and improve the integrated national strategic system and capabilities. Deepen cross-military and civilian reform, and build a cross-military and civilian work pattern that performs its own duties, closely cooperates, and is standardized and orderly. Accelerate strategic capacity building in emerging fields, and promote the efficient integration and two-way pull of new quality productive forces and new quality combat effectiveness. Build an advanced national defense science and technology industrial system, optimize the layout of national defense science and technology industry, and promote the generalization of military and civilian standards. Strengthen the reporting of military needs for national defense construction and military-civilian docking, promote the full implementation of national defense requirements for major infrastructure, and strengthen the prefabrication of national defense strategies. Accelerate the capacity building of national defense mobilization, strengthen the construction of reserve forces, strengthen the construction of modern border, sea and air defense, and promote the joint efforts of the party, government, military, police and civilians to strengthen border defense. Deepen national defense education for the whole people and consolidate military-political and military-civilian unity."
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Absolutely, the Chinese saw how the west has chickened out since 2022 due to Russian nukes, so china wants a nuclear parity with the USA. That having being accomplished guarantees that the USA won't interfere in the conquest of Taiwan by china. That's smart from Chinese viewpoint.
Really has nothing to do with 2022. China would be doing the exact same thing regardless of what happens in Russia/Ukraine. Seeing as how America has now fully recognized the mortality of Pax Americana, China must build its nuclear arsenal now to prevent the US from one last gambit in activating Thucydides' Trap, which is no longer in effect with MAD. Therefore, for China to keep developing in completing the final overtake of the US without nuclear parity would be asking to be vaporized by Washington's last way to deal with China. China didn't undergo a massive nuclear buildup earlier because 1. before Washington fully realized the Chinese challenge, it was beneficial to stay under the radar and appear non-threatening and 2. the later the buildup the better the tech; anyone would rather have 3,000 DF-61 rather than 3,000 DF-5. So it really is not influenced by the Ukraine war and the West makes completely incorrect assumptions in thinking that China can be deterred by defeating Russia. The correct time for nuclear buildup is now; not later and not earlier.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
It’s more likely that after seeing first hand the utter disregard western leaders had for their own civilian casualties and the choices they made to score cheap political points at the expense of more deaths (covid rescue flights anyone?) Chinese leaders have concluded that even millions of their own civilian deaths are a price western leaders would gladly pay to genocide China. As such, minimal deterrence is utterly inadequate so it’s going to full MAD.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
I think The Nuclear Express got it right about Chinas nuclear weapon research (they wrote about compact warhead designed in the 1990's) even thought people like Jeffrey Lewis have called it nonsense. To a non-academic like me (often common sense is proven correct) it was clear that China won't stop warhead development at the original 470kg DF-31 warhead.

Stillman personally visited Chinese weapon labs multiple times.
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