China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[ZeEa5KPul]

Actually no, at least not the same interpretation from this report.

The report is about the proliferation risks of India's supposed fast breeder program. It doesn't compare the economics of producing WgPu from different reactors, it just discusses the feasibility of producing Pu from fast breeders as a proliferation risk. Yes, it's technically feasible but that's not the point - the point is it's much easier and cheaper to produce WgPu from dedicated production reactors.

Historically, WgPu production has been dominated by two reactor types: graphite moderated (water or gas cooled) and heavy water moderated and cooled. Of the two, graphite is far more common (Hanford in the US and all production reactors in the USSR). The reason is the sheer simplicity of the design, it's a block of graphite with holes drilled in it in which you place natural uranium rods. It's so simple that the very first experimental reactors were graphite moderated. Cooling the reactor is the most complicated part of it.

I haven't looked at the economics in detail, but I wouldn't be surprised if you can build several graphite moderated reactors for the cost of one breeder, and what matters in production is cost per kilogram of plutonium produced.

The problem with these reports in general is that they discuss surreptitious means by which states could manufacture fissile material. They don't discuss or even consider the scenario where a state with a mature weapons program openly decides to expand that program, which is what's germane to China's case.

If the report from NATO is right about new reactor in 404, there is certainly an option to produce WgPu in old school method meanwhile FBR could play a role as backup.

I think this is by far the likeliest scenario. Do you have a link to this NATO report?

 

[Kalec]

The reason is the sheer simplicity of the design, it's a block of graphite with holes drilled in it in which you place natural uranium rods. It's so simple that the very first experimental reactors were graphite moderated. Cooling the reactor is the most complicated part of it.

Technologically you are right, graphite moderate is far simpler in design but these reports generally said that graphite moderated reactor produces WgPu far slower and less concentrated than breeder. As a result, one needs to constantly reprocess the low burnup spent fuel, requiring a reprocessing capacity China doesn't have.

From "China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords?"

One advantage of using these breeder reactors to produce weapon- grade plutonium is that the plutonium is significantly more concentrated in the spent fuel than in light- water power reactor spent fuel. For example, the 222 kilograms of plutonium from the reactors’ radial blankets would be contained in only 6.3 metric tons of spent fuel.

WgPu to spent fuel ratio
FBR reactor: 35kg WgPu/t
CANDU: 1kg WgPu/t
Graphite: 1.77kg WgPu/t

I think this is by far the likeliest scenario. Do you have a link to this NATO report?

It is not public report, only mentioned in one sentence here.

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One plutonium production area, the Jiuquan Atomic Energy Complex, doubled in size at a nuclear reprocessing zone in the past two years alone and added another reactor in the past year.

Since there is no other report on where the new reactor is and ppl simply doesn't even know what 404 is.
You could check satellite image regarding new round of 404 expansion if you want but I suspect one can find anything determining there.

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[Kalec]

tell us about maximum capacity of China to produce WgPu throughout this decade.

The quoted report has a chart on it.



The lower end is 1,026kg new WgPu as of 2030 by assuming both of CFR-600 comes online on schedule and only radial blanket is reprocessed (easier path) and 1,849kg if axial blankets are also reprocessed.

IF China indeed build another new reactor in 404, it will account for an additional 150kg/yr WgPu, totaling 500kg/yr production rate if everything is built and reprocessed.

and how many warheads they can produce at maximum by 2027.

Frankly it is irrelevant to warhead production as China can use existing stockpile to build plutonium pits.

Assuming 2kg WgPu per warhead, one only needs 200kg WgPu to build 100 warheads per year. One even faster route is to buy WgPu from Russia. They are going to reprocess their stockpile into reactor fuel anyway and I don't see any political obstacle to sell them to China. Sometimes I find it hard to understand why western analyst deems such scenario as politically unthinkable meanwhile UK is purchasing from SLBM to warhead data from US and everyone is OK with it.

 

[gelgoog]

Russia stopped reprocessing their stockpile into reactor fuel when the US did not keep to their own end of the deal.

The Russians should still have most of their plutonium. And I agree that Russia and China have good enough relations that Russia might possibly sell China plutonium if it comes to that. But given China's own investments into reprocessing I doubt that is their plan.

 

[antiterror13]

The quoted report has a chart on it.

View attachment 111301

The lower end is 1,026kg new WgPu as of 2030 by assuming both of CFR-600 comes online on schedule and only radial blanket is reprocessed (easier path) and 1,849kg if axial blankets are also reprocessed.

IF China indeed build another new reactor in 404, it will account for an additional 150kg/yr WgPu, totaling 500kg/yr production rate if everything is built and reprocessed.


Frankly it is irrelevant to warhead production as China can use existing stockpile to build plutonium pits.

Assuming 2kg WgPu per warhead, one only needs 200kg WgPu to build 100 warheads per year. One even faster route is to buy WgPu from Russia. They are going to reprocess their stockpile into reactor fuel anyway and I don't see any political obstacle to sell them to China. Sometimes I find it hard to understand why western analyst deems such scenario as politically unthinkable meanwhile UK is purchasing from SLBM to warhead data from US and everyone is OK with it.

so only 2 kg WgPu is needed for a warhead? do you know what the yield of the warhead with 2kg WgPu?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Technologically you are right, graphite moderate is far simpler in design but these reports generally said that graphite moderated reactor produces WgPu far slower and less concentrated than breeder. As a result, one needs to constantly reprocess the low burnup spent fuel, requiring a reprocessing capacity China doesn't have.

From "China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords?"

WgPu to spent fuel ratio
FBR reactor: 35kg WgPu/t
CANDU: 1kg WgPu/t
Graphite: 1.77kg WgPu/t


It is not public report, only mentioned in one sentence here.

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Since there is no other report on where the new reactor is and ppl simply doesn't even know what 404 is.
You could check satellite image regarding new round of 404 expansion if you want but I suspect one can find anything determining there.

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I think our positions are actually a lot closer than my response might have conveyed. Certainly China should use the Pu from FBRs in its weapons, but I don't think FBR can be the primary source simply because the reactors are so expensive. Also, to achieve such high Pu richness, the fuel has to be in the reactor for a long time, so turnaround time is also a factor to consider in addition to cost between FBR and graphite.

I think the data you posted about the plutonium potential from the CFR-600s is supplemental. There's a question whether China will divert this plutonium at all. A lot depends on how closely it cooperates with Russia (for example, reprocessing civilian fuel in Russia and reprocessing for the military using its own capacity).

so only 2 kg WgPu is needed for a warhead? do you know what the yield of the warhead with 2kg WgPu?

The plutonium is part of the primary stage, and a non-essential part at that. Think of it as a primary explosive in a giant block of secondary explosive. You can make the secondary explosive much bigger without increasing the size of the primary since its job is just to initiate the detonation.

The primary is a hollow ellipsoid of fissile material filled with deuterium and tritium gas. That fissile material was historically Pu because its low critical mass meant you could make the primary small. Afaik, that's the only place Pu is used in a thermonuclear bomb; the rest is U (235 and 238), lithium deuteride, deuterium, and tritium. Strictly speaking, one could make the primary entirely out of uranium but that wasn't done historically because Pu was so easy to get and more suited to the purpose.

If you're interested, this two-part lecture series is an excellent introduction to the topic. Part 1 discusses the physics and engineering of bombs and part 2 the production of fissile material:

 

[Kalec]

so only 2 kg WgPu is needed for a warhead? do you know what the yield of the warhead with 2kg WgPu?

Around 10kt I think, enough for a primary stage.

"Alarmingly, the Chinese secret document, which bore a 1988 date, gave the exact diameter of the W-88's primary, 115mm, or about four and a half inches." from the book "Tiger Trap: America's Secret Spy War with China"

It got worse. The Chinese document accurately gave the radius of the round secondary as 172mm, or just under 7 inches, and it disclosed that, unlike other nukes, the primary of the W-88 was at the tapered tip of the warhead, forward of the secondary, another secret that was supposed to be closely held.

Even though we know w88 has an ellipsoid primary stage but no exact data on each of their diameters on three axis. And it needed to be noted that plutonium pits and primary stage are actually NOT the same thing. The plutonium pit is filled with D-T gas plus an neutron generator then covered by a thin layer of beryllium then a thick egg-shaped high explosive.

Suppose the pit has a diameter of 80 mm and a thickness of 4 mm, the volume of plutonium is around 72cm^3, totaling 1.5kg in weight. The real pit might be larger or thickness but surely 2kg is much enough for an upper bound.

Finally, the document accurately reported the overall length of the warhead as 1522mm, or 5 feet. There were other documents in the walk-in's cache, hundreds that dealt with other foreign missile and defense systems, including those of Russia and France. But it was the W-88 that was, from the outset, the focus of the CIA's interest.

Regarding the authenticity of this claim, I think it is valid simply because it is very hard for a FBI agent to make it up without looking ridiculously.

The claim is further validated with another source from renowned nuclear handbook “Sword of Armageddon," and the Chinese figure is indeed alarmingly accurate. Even funnier that the first production unit of W-88 was completed in September 1988 and somehow Chinese intelligence agency had already got the exact figures on the component of warhead in the same year.

The MK 5 RV for the W-88 is about five feet long and about 18 inches in diameter at its base. The warhead within is positioned so that the primary is above, or ahead, of the larger-diameter secondary. From book “Sword of Armageddon"

 

[Kalec]

I think our positions are actually a lot closer than my response might have conveyed. Certainly China should use the Pu from FBRs in its weapons, but I don't think FBR can be the primary source simply because the reactors are so expensive. Also, to achieve such high Pu richness, the fuel has to be in the reactor for a long time, so turnaround time is also a factor to consider in addition to cost between FBR and graphite.

I know fast breeder is expensive and uneconomical to generate electricity, but I mean we are where we are right now, they have been built and reprocessing plants were also built. Better to use them than leave them idle.

The WgPu in the radial blanket is basically the free perk for operating FBR and the Super grade plutonium in axial blanket is not hard to get them either, better safe than sorry to stockpile more when there is no fissile material cut off treaty.

 

[Kalec]

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According to the official news, Tai'an Special Vehicle Company has finished development of hybrid-powered TEL for DF-41 after seven years of R&D.

The development started in 2017 and won the national bid in 2020.

2017年10月，在这收获的季节，满心欢喜的项目团队迎来了首台分布式电驱动特种车样车下线，然而，就在路试的第一天，类似车轮失速等故障接踵而至。

In October 2017, the project team began the first electric special-vehicle prototype off the production line, however, on the first day of road test, similar wheel stalls and other failures ensued.

2018年4月，历经数月攻关，一扫之前的阴霾，车辆调试成功满足指标要求，较同吨位的传统特种车，展现出了电驱动的优越性。这也标志着项目组突破并初步掌握了分布式混合动力全电驱动特种车的总体设计等多项关键技术，在此基础上研制出八轴电驱特种车样车，顺利通过试验。

In April 2018, after several months of research and development, the previous gloom was swept away, and the vehicle debugging successfully met the requirements, showing the superiority of electric vehicle compared with the traditional special vehicles of the same tonnage. This also marks the project team's breakthrough and initial mastery of a number of key technologies such as the overall design of the distributed hybrid-electric drive special vehicle, on the basis of which the eight-axle electric special vehicle prototype was developed and successfully passed the test.

2020年5月30日，是值得项目团队铭记的一天。这天，研制的分布式电驱动特种车底盘在数家竞标企业的产品中脱颖而出，成功中标，这标志着公司分布式电驱动特种车成功完成了从科研价值到应用价值的“角色转变”。

May 30, 2020, is a day worth remembering for the project team. On this day, the chassis of the developed distributed electric special vehicle stood out among the products of several bidding companies and successfully won the bid, which marked the successful completion of the "role change" of the company's distributed electric special vehicle from scientific research value to application value.

七年间，公司分布式电驱动技术取得多项发明专利，完成了多型分布式电驱底盘设计，并与北京理工大学联合申报的“重型特种车辆分布式电驱动系统关键技术与应用”科技成果项目，荣获“国防技术发明奖一等奖”。

In the past seven years, the company has obtained several invention patents for distributed electric vehicle technology, completed the design of several types of distributed electric chassis, and jointly awared with Beijing University of Technology the "key technology and application of distributed electric drive system for heavy-duty special vehicles" scientific and technological achievements project, which won the "National Defense Technology Invention Award First Prize".

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

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According to the official news, Tai'an Special Vehicle Company has finished development of hybrid-powered TEL for DF-41 after seven years of R&D.

The development started in 2017 and won the national bid in 2020.

View attachment 111421


In October 2017, the project team began the first electric special-vehicle prototype off the production line, however, on the first day of road test, similar wheel stalls and other failures ensued.

In April 2018, after several months of research and development, the previous gloom was swept away, and the vehicle debugging successfully met the requirements, showing the superiority of electric vehicle compared with the traditional special vehicles of the same tonnage. This also marks the project team's breakthrough and initial mastery of a number of key technologies such as the overall design of the distributed hybrid-electric drive special vehicle, on the basis of which the eight-axle electric special vehicle prototype was developed and successfully passed the test.

May 30, 2020, is a day worth remembering for the project team. On this day, the chassis of the developed distributed electric special vehicle stood out among the products of several bidding companies and successfully won the bid, which marked the successful completion of the "role change" of the company's distributed electric special vehicle from scientific research value to application value.

In the past seven years, the company has obtained several invention patents for distributed electric vehicle technology, completed the design of several types of distributed electric chassis, and jointly awared with Beijing University of Technology the "key technology and application of distributed electric drive system for heavy-duty special vehicles" scientific and technological achievements project, which won the "National Defense Technology Invention Award First Prize".

This is a big deal. Hybrid vehicles have the following characteristics:

1. Low thermal and acoustic signature when in battery mode, making it much harder to track for adversary air power by FLIR if they happen to penetrate air defenses.

2. Higher electrical power generation for communication equipment.

3. More energy efficient and lower mechanical engine wear so they spend longer deployed and less in maintenance or refueling. If a battery goes wrong, it is easier to design to be swappable.