China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Any reason why China is currently only producing J-16s? It makes sense that they would only produce the most advanced Flankers at this point, but why are they focussing on twin-seaters so much instead of single-seat variants?
Wait... I may be out of the loop.

But where did you get the information/sources that China has stopped (or paused, if the PLA is interested enough for the J-11D production line to run) the construction of the J-11 series and keep the production runs of the J-16 series going?
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is actually a pretty good question, and one I've pondered for the last few years.

There's a few reasons, IMO:

1: the twin seater and (potential) single seater "domestic advanced Flankers" are actually separate developmental variants of each other. Specifically, the twin seater domestic advanced Flanker is the J-16 (which as we all know has been in production for multiple years now going back to early/mid 2010s). Meanwhile, the single seater domestic advanced Flanker that exists as an "option" is the J-11D. However, the J-11D is not a single seat variant of the J-16, and the J-16 is not a twin seat variant of the J-11D either. Meaning it's not just a matter of producing a single seat variant of the J-16 if they wanted one -- it's not that easy.

2: then there's the question of what a new build single seater advanced Flanker airframe would offer. For the PLA, they already have many hundreds of single seat J-11Bs in service, whose airframes are relatively young, and can be given MLUs to introduce more advanced subsystems. We see that with the J-11BG/BHG upgrades that include an AESA radar, among likely other upgrades.

3: then there's the question of what does a twin seater J-16 offer that a potential single seater advanced Flanker may not offer? IMO, the most valuable thing the J-16 brings, in context of the present day (and future) air combat landscape, is the second pilot. Specifically, as air combat becomes increasingly networked, and as UAVs and UCAVs become introduced in larger numbers in a MUMT fashion, there would be some benefit in having a large number of modern, capable airframes that can do various command and UAV/UCAV control tasks, while also simultaneously being able to conduct combat at the same time. Now, as technology develops of course automation means that a single person will be able to do more command/control tasks and command more UAVs/UCAVs simultaneously at any one given time -- however at the end of the day you still need a human being to take in the information and make the tactical decisions even if things are highly automated. The number of human beings will likely still present a practical rate limiting step for command/control and UAV/UCAV control in the near future.

4: lastly, the J-20 is currently in production as a single seat heavyweight twin engine air superiority (and multirole) fighter, and of course far superior to J-11D in every domain that is relevant. One would ask why build a land based, single seat twin engine air superiority/multirole fighter that is based on a 4th generation airframe, when you could build a J-20 instead, especially given current J-20As and a single seat advanced Flanker (like J-11D) would both use the same WS-10 engines anyhow.


... or putting the answers more briefly:
1: building a single seat advanced Flanker isn't as straight forward as we think
2: J-11BG upgrades exist, and are the "single seat advanced Flanker"
3: J-16s offer more useful growth potential into the near future of air combat due to the benefits of its second pilot
4: J-20 already exists as a single seat heavyweight twin engine fighter in production that is superior to J-11D in every single way, and uses the same engines, to boot

Given all that, I think there's just no real good argument for why the PLA "needs" to build new single seat advanced Flanker airframes (like J-11D). So the best choice is continuing to build J-16s which have an existing large scale support/logistics system, will enjoy a long term support/upgrade pathway, and performs good enough for the A2A and strike mission, and has the second pilot that can offer benefits for future command/UAV roles.


Now, there have been some rumours that the PLA might be interested in J-11D, but to date over the years we've not seen evidence of this.
If the PLA does buy J-11D, then it might mean that they value the slightly more capable performance and air to air focus that J-11D may offer compared to J-16, to be willing to introduce a new Flanker variant into the fleet... but at the moment, in context of where the PLA is headed (large scale procurement of 5th generation fighters and new build 4.5th gens taking a backseat), I can't see the benefits of introducing J-11D outweighing its complexities and costs.



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To add, the PLAAF also deem it worth developing a 2-seater variant of the J-20.

It shows they value having a second seater, presumably assigned to EW/AWACs/drones
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Wait... I may be out of the loop.

But where did you get the information/sources that China has stopped (or paused, if the PLA is interested enough for the J-11D production line to run) the construction of the J-11 series and keep the production runs of the J-16 series going?

The J-11B ended production a few years ago.

The only land based PLA Flanker in production at SAC in recent years, has been J-16.


Did you believe that the J-11B family are still being actively produced?

This is from a movie.

What's more important is whether the aircraft in that scene are all real or if there is some CGI or green screen, as I said, the background looks a bit sus.

(If it is real, then it would be one of the more impressive collections of modern PLA aircraft we've had in recent years, even if it is for a movie)

Edit: lol looking at the trailer, yeah the background is definitely cgi
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
The J-11B ended production a few years ago.

The only land based PLA Flanker in production at SAC in recent years, has been J-16.

Did you believe that the J-11B family are still being actively produced?
Do pardon me on my lack of knowledge, I just joined this forum last year.

3: then there's the question of what does a twin seater J-16 offer that a potential single seater advanced Flanker may not offer? IMO, the most valuable thing the J-16 brings, in context of the present day (and future) air combat landscape, is the second pilot. Specifically, as air combat becomes increasingly networked, and as UAVs and UCAVs become introduced in larger numbers in a MUMT fashion, there would be some benefit in having a large number of modern, capable airframes that can do various command and UAV/UCAV control tasks, while also simultaneously being able to conduct combat at the same time. Now, as technology develops of course automation means that a single person will be able to do more command/control tasks and command more UAVs/UCAVs simultaneously at any one given time -- however at the end of the day you still need a human being to take in the information and make the tactical decisions even if things are highly automated. The number of human beings will likely still present a practical rate limiting step for command/control and UAV/UCAV control in the near future.

4: lastly, the J-20 is currently in production as a single seat heavyweight twin engine air superiority (and multirole) fighter, and of course far superior to J-11D in every domain that is relevant. One would ask why build a land based, single seat twin engine air superiority/multirole fighter that is based on a 4th generation airframe, when you could build a J-20 instead, especially given current J-20As and a single seat advanced Flanker (like J-11D) would both use the same WS-10 engines anyhow.

WRT these two points - Around when in the future do you guys envision that the J-20Ss (i.e. dual-seat variant of the J-20) would kick the J-16 out of the production line, like how the J-20 has essentially kicked the J-11 out of production several years ago?

Since with a twin-seater design, the J-20S could also fullfill the same role as the J-16 is fullfilling now (and can be fullfilled with a larger body and more onboard power) when it comes to roles e.g. enhancing greater networking between squadrons and regions in a battlefield, C&C wingman UAVs and UCAVs, smaller but agile AWACS, and electronic warfare.

Plus with the upcoming J-35/J-31, which I do believe that a twin-seater variant would be available as well to replace the J-15S and J-15D.
 
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