I've noted that your analysis is based on the assumption that the J-11B and J-15 still retains the Su-27SK airframe. However, that is not completely true in the sense that they have added considerable amounts of RAM and composites.
Composites saved the airframe over 700 kg of weight (which is rumored to be the lightest Flanker type airframe developed). This will definitely give the J-11B and J-15 a considerable agility advantage over the Su-30MKI or even possibly the Su-35, given that the WS-10 engines produce more thrust than the Al-31.
The RAM of the J-11B and J-15 have supposedly reduced its RCS to 3 m^2, eight times stealthier than that of the Su-30MKI.
Agility is an integral factor in close air to air combat, but you have to realize that modern air warfare is played out in BVR combat. This is when frontal stealth and avionics are the key.
The AESA upgrades for the Su-30MKI will feature a Zhuk AE with approximately up to 1000 individual T/R modules. The radars for the J-11B and J-15 will be a larger variant of the J-10B's radar. The J-10B's radar has 1200 T/R modules, approximately equating to a tracking range of 140 km for a 1 m^2 target.
This, plus the enhanced airframe, will probably place the J-15 on par with the Super Hornet in terms of agility and avionics.
One of the reason why China never bothered to put much into thrust vectoring technology is because the heavy platforms were designed to engage aircraft at long range, not to go into turning dogfights.