China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
From the Global Times, the births in 2020 suggest an 18% decline.
2020: 12 million
2019: 14.65 million
Would @ZeEa5KPul like to explain how a 18% decline in the birth rate is smaller than a 4% drop in the birth rate?
2020: 12 million
2019: 14.65 million
Would @ZeEa5KPul like to explain how a 18% decline in the birth rate is smaller than a 4% drop in the birth rate?
I find it very helpful that you didn't even try to deny that you're Sleepystudent's alt.
Funny, your Reuters article claimed 10.035 million were born in 2020 and 11.79 in 2019. Which is it, Sleepystudent? Don't waste my time with this trash, make yourself useful and go fetch the data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Sharpish.
On your first point, there's no point in trying to prove a negative
I dug out the Global Times article since I didn't trust Reuters and it pointed to 12 million in 2020 and 14.65 in 2019 which is an 18% drop.
In any case, US births dropped <5% in 2020 and China births dropped >10% in 2020. Births dropped more heavily in China than they did in the United States. The NBS website is dysfunctional and you don't need numbers to 10 significant digits to figure that one out.
For the non-troll users who don't furiously masturbate to the Coming Collapse of China and are discussing this issue in good faith, I will point out that it's only very recently (as in months) that the Chinese government has begun to tackle this problem head on. The bans on for-profit private tuition are the opening salvo of a war that will last for a very long time. The obstacles standing in the way of the Chinese family like high costs of tuition, scarcity of high quality education, burdensome work schedules, lack of daycare, etc. will all be flattened.
And that's just considering the basic socialist reforms.
Even the hating trolls implicitly credit China with successfully achieving the goals of the one child policy, an anti-natal policy. Now the policy has decisively shifted to a pro-natal one, and the results will be similarly successful.
And that's just considering the basic socialist reforms.
Even the hating trolls implicitly credit China with successfully achieving the goals of the one child policy, an anti-natal policy. Now the policy has decisively shifted to a pro-natal one, and the results will be similarly successful.
Thanks for conceding the point. It is a factual statement that China's birth rate dropped more in 2020 than in 2019 (and it can't even largely be blamed on COVID given that births on or before September 2020 reflect sexual activities in 2019). The actual COVID effect won't be known until later this year though preliminary data from the US state of Florida (~7% of the US population) suggests that 2021 birth rates are flat or slightly higher than 2020 birth rates though birth rates from reported CN jurisdictions are continuing to plunge in 2021.
In any case, it's not a projection and not a forecast of future birth rates as much as it's a note of current trends: US births are declining far slower than China births though a substantial intervention may change that.
Also, incentives for increasing birth rates are far weaker than coercive effects. The Nordics with some of the most generous social welfare systems and easy-going lifestyles all have TFRs <2.1.
Chinese need to get their shit together, you can't achieve Japan/Korea self-extinction level of fertility rate without already achieving Japan/Korea level of prosperity/income level. What good is 996 if your country still has shit income level? You burn yourself out and don't reproduce babies and don't have much to show for it.
@Phead128 bro you need to do your part, I had done mine, with 5 children, 3 with my wife. I think they will adjust quite well since they're all good Chinese speaker. Brother since I'm older I heard and read the same pessimistic prediction about unmarried Chinese men that will collapse the CCP...LOL and that was in 2002 or 2003, twenty years later that prediction doesn't age well....LOL
Well said. The zero or one child thinking is a death sentence. Three children or more per couple is what we need.