China demographics thread.

[broadsword]

If you had some common sense you would've understood that meant dominating the household.

Anyway, short of coercive measures the CCP will find it very difficult to turn the tide in the short term. Suppressing feminism is not going to cut it. The decline of China's working age population is well underway, and by the looks of it at a steeper rate than what Japan experienced in the late 90s.

If you have a brain, you should know that dominating the household and dominating the husband are different.

Anyway, your lies and imaginations are super easy to see through.

 

[broadsword]

Anyway, short of coercive measures the CCP will find it very difficult to turn the tide in the short term. Suppressing feminism is not going to cut it. The decline of China's working age population is well underway, and by the looks of it at a steeper rate than what Japan experienced in the late 90s.

Who thinks short term for this sort of issue? What if, despite the decline in working age population, China's GDP continues to grow?

 

[nlalyst]

If you have a brain, you should know that dominating the household and dominating the husband are different.

Not all of us share your fetish.

Who thinks short term for this sort of issue?

Short term changes are needed to produce improvements in 30-40 years. The longer they procrastinate, the greater the risk of China entering a relative decline vis-a-vis the USA by 2050.

What if, despite the decline in working age population, China's GDP continues to grow?

Decreasing working age population is certainly a head wind, but nobody knows what the future will bring. Based on Japan's experience it will find it difficult to achieve that in face of continuous decline. Japan's GDP in 2019 was lower than what it was in 1995. Their productivity per hour worked has certainly improved, but not enough to offset the loss in labor force.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Unfortunately it's not really possible as there are barely any Koreans or Japanese to use as a reservoir for population growth, and even if there were China is a different animal entirely. With 1.4 billion people, to get the same robust population growth as the US, you'd need 4.2 million annual immigrants. Nothing even close could come from Korea and Japan. And that's assuming Chinese fertility rates stay the same as American rates, instead of plummeting even further which is more likely. In that case you may be talking about as many as 8 million annual immigrants.

The only real way out of this fertility crisis is a Manhattan Project/Apollo Program equivalent in China but for baby-making. It is absolutely 100% possible. Israeli non-Haredi Jews have a TFR of 3.0! Note I said non-Haredi, so I'm excluding the ultra-religious element entirely. It didn't come down from 4 or 5 TFR or something either, it's been growing every year for the last two decades. China can absolutely do the same thing if it really tried.

There is no country in the history of mankind like China when it comes to mobilizing its population for a certain event or act. What it did for COVID, harmoniously getting 1.4 billion people to stay inside and follow all mandated protocols, and the people responding on cue and with such poise and symmetry, is unprecedented in Human history. It's never been done before.

And so when Western countries talk about how impossibly hard it is for nations to incentivize more births and so the case for China is hopeless, they are only projecting their own flaws nothing more. China can absolutely do it, all it takes is willpower, and it looks like fairly soon the government might be ramping up to do so.

That is not fact on the ground specially now when Chinese living standard keep rising and approaching living standard in Japan and Korea on the coastal province of China. I see bus load of young people from Japan and Korea studying Chinese language and most continue to study in Chinese university I asked them why ? They said there is more opportunity to find work in China than in Japan or Korea specially if they are bilingual
Ryo Tekeuchi make a living documenting the Japanese expat life in China just check his channel

The disparity in living standard is even more stark in the southern border of China with Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar forcing hundred of thousand to seek employment or residence in China. But unlike the US china is more generous the her neighbor allowing them to participate in the prosperity by regulating the cross border employment and immigration like in this video. They even open the school for children from across the border up to high school. Further more Thousand Vietnamese women prefer to be married to chinese as this video show and vice versa since no Chinese women want to marry farmer!

Laos Children study in China
The New Silk Road Season 4 - Episode 1 China- Guangxi and Yunnan. China is investing in Guangxi in a big way to connect it to ASEAN. A Singapore-Guangxi Integrated Logistics Park is currently being built, which will sit on the strategic Southern Transport Corridor- a major logistics channel in China. We take a look at the province and its business opportunities.

Japanese student in China: Warm words and actions needed for Wuhan​

 

[sinophilia]

Being min-maj in the US context (California, Texas, Arizona, etc) is equivalent to multiculturalism with Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans, Blacks and Whites. Detroit is ethnically homogeneous and is not multi-ethnic. Also, please stop sipping Republican propaganda. Major US cities are not nightmares or else capital bond issuance by US municipalities would not be going up and formal population within city limits would similarly not be going up

I think you mean they are majority-minority. I don't like to correct people over simple errors like that but you've made the mistake a dozen times or so. Republican propaganda? LOL couldn't give two shits about either of your imbecilic parties. I don't derive lessons from large coalitions of morons who've never had an original thought in their lives, whether they be left-leaning Americans or right-leaning Americans or otherwise. Kindly take your accusations to an American-influenced forum if you seek that kind of thought process. Very few people here even give those parties or most of the ideas formulated in those types of countries a second thought unless it concerns making fun of them.

Being min-maj in the US context (California, Texas, Arizona, etc) is equivalent to multiculturalism Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans, Blacks and Whites

It's equivalent to multi-racialism. Last I checked, being from a different racial or ethnic group doesn't suddenly make you of a different culture. Black culture is very much American culture, almost all Hispanics by the time they are second gen and certainly by third gen, are no different in 'culture' from the Black and White Americans. Asians too. Traditions don't count, they hardly have made for big disputes in recent American history.

Major US cities are not nightmares or else capital bond issuance by US municipalities would not be going up and formal population within city limits would similarly not be going up

Yea once again, don't believe my lying eyes, or anyone else's for that matter. Crime rates in those major cities exceed many third world national averages, levels of income inequality are the highest in the developed world, rates of homelessness and mental illness also higher than most anywhere in the developed world, the major school districts in those areas are the lowest-scoring in the developed world.

You seem to think you can wash all of that away by telling us that within these artificial subdivisions, the specific populations which made their parts of the city wealthy and innovative and safe and clean (and therefore make it lucrative for people to do things like buy their bonds or move into those specific neighborhoods), make up for the parts which look more like the third world with each passing year.

Sure you can argue that, but that wouldn't be the same as arguing that importing people regardless of their population's abilities or behaviors is a good thing. Oh and as for those specific neighborhoods that have raised the average so much for these increasingly hellish cities, now it's gotten so bad that there's even an ever increasing exodus of people leaving those specific neighborhoods. All of my neighbors have left, next door an extremely wealthy Chinese dude, behind me a large White family, etc etc etc. Don't take my word for it, ask Elon Musk or Joe Rogan or any of the other people on the US Census and other reports that state the same.

When the people that have raised the average so much start leaving, you're going to see a VERY quick change in the financial position and living standards of those cities/counties/states.

 

[sinophilia]

If you have a brain, you should know that dominating the household and dominating the husband are different.

Anyway, your lies and imaginations are super easy to see through.

When I realized he was just an Indian who gave up a long time ago on his hell of a country and so seeks to come here and find ways to express his bitterness and resentment I just stopped talking to him. Ignore him and he'll go away.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

I think you mean they are majority-minority. I don't like to correct people over simple errors like that but you've made the mistake a dozen times or so. Republican propaganda? LOL couldn't give two shits about either of your imbecilic parties. I don't derive lessons from large coalitions of morons who've never had an original thought in their lives, whether they be left-leaning Americans or right-leaning Americans or otherwise. Kindly take your accusations to an American-influenced forum if you seek that kind of thought process. Very few people here even give those parties or most of the ideas formulated in those types of countries a second thought unless it concerns making fun of them.

Min-maj and maj-min are both acceptable. VRA lawsuits use the two terms interchangeably. Your claim is simply wrong about US cities.

It's equivalent to multi-racialism. Last I checked, being from a different racial or ethnic group doesn't suddenly make you of a different culture. Black culture is very much American culture, almost all Hispanics by the time they are second gen and certainly by third gen, are no different in 'culture' from the Black and White Americans. Asians too. Traditions don't count, they hardly have made for big disputes in recent American history.

Ah yes, the OP mentioned how the US becoming multi-cultural/multi-ethnic would lead to the US collapsing. Now we've moved on to no true scotsman.

Yea once again, don't believe my lying eyes, or anyone else's for that matter. Crime rates in those major cities exceed many third world national averages, levels of income inequality are the highest in the developed world, rates of homelessness and mental illness also higher than most anywhere in the developed world, the major school districts in those areas are the lowest-scoring in the developed world.

Social issues exist in urban governance? Pretend I'm shocked (I'm not). Crime rates are manageable, income inequality is high but even the poorest people in Los Angeles have incomes higher than in Pudong and those major school districts ended up producing workers in an economy with a GDPPC of 60K.

You seem to think you can wash all of that away by telling us that within these artificial subdivisions, the specific populations which made their parts of the city wealthy and innovative and safe and clean (and therefore make it lucrative for people to do things like buy their bonds or move into those specific neighborhoods), make up for the parts which look more like the third world with each passing year.

Sure you can argue that, but that wouldn't be the same as arguing that importing people regardless of their population's abilities or behaviors is a good thing. Oh and as for those specific neighborhoods that have raised the average so much for these increasingly hellish cities, now it's gotten so bad that there's even an ever increasing exodus of people leaving those specific neighborhoods. All of my neighbors have left, next door an extremely wealthy Chinese dude, behind me a large White family, etc etc etc. Don't take my word for it, ask Elon Musk or Joe Rogan or any of the other people on the US Census and other reports that state the same.

US Census data just came out and the only 3 states with population declines were West Virginia, Mississippi and Illinois. Population grew everywhere else and using Census data, population in formal city boundaries grew. Are population growth distributions even? No. But those specific neighborhoods are isolated such that it doesn't affect US growth. In any case, the contention, being multi-ethnic is baaad for social stability is wrong given the suburbs have similarly become multi-ethnicized (Orange County, CA; Oakland County, MI; Gwinnett County, GA; Fort Bend County, TX; Fairfax County, VA) without any disruptions to social stability.

When the people that have raised the average so much start leaving, you're going to see a VERY quick change in the financial position and living standards of those cities/counties/states.

They aren't leaving, population is in fact growing for 47 out of 50 states. The claims of white flight simply haven't panned out anywhere. No white flight in CA in the 1990s, in TX in the 2010s, etc; even as those states became multi-ethnicized. In any case, the existence of min-maj or maj-min states in the United States (for a long time to boot) indicates that in fact, no, becoming more diverse will not be a deterrent to continued US growth and power.

 

[broadsword]

Not all of us share your fetish.

My fetish is to nlayse you.

Short term changes are needed to produce improvements in 30-40 years. The longer they procrastinate, the greater the risk of China entering a relative decline vis-a-vis the USA by 2050.

30-40 year short term? That is a generation.

Decreasing working age population is certainly a head wind, but nobody knows what the future will bring. Based on Japan's experience it will find it difficult to achieve that in face of continuous decline. Japan's GDP in 2019 was lower than what it was in 1995. Their productivity per hour worked has certainly improved, but not enough to offset the loss in labor force.

Then you need to embrace communism. It is dope. Per capita is all I care given China's relatively large population.

 

[sinophilia]

Social issues exist in urban governance? Pretend I'm shocked (I'm not). Crime rates are manageable, income inequality is high but even the poorest people in Los Angeles have incomes higher than in Pudong and those major school districts ended up producing workers in an economy with a GDPPC of 60K.

Yea no, I didn't say social issues just 'exist', I claimed they are atrocious and getting worse. And I didn't limit it to 'social issues' either. Nice try attempting to brush it under the carpet. The poorest people in LA have higher incomes because they live in a city and a country which has a higher minimum wage than even the average rich nations median wage, not because they are smarter or harder working or more productive. The people of Detroit have higher incomes than any major city in China, by your ridiculous standards Detroit is a far better place to live than Shanghai or Beijing.

Ah yes, the OP mentioned how the US becoming multi-cultural/multi-ethnic would lead to the US collapsing. Now we've moved on to no true scotsman.

The OP is not me, are you confused? I NEVER claimed that multi-culturalism would lead the US to collapse, even going as far as to give the example of Belgium. I furthermore doubled down by saying that the term "multi-culturalism" when applied to the US is nonsensical as the US is one of the least multi-cultural nations on Earth. The only one using logical fallacies is you. While multi-culturalism isn't ideal it pales in comparison to a multi-ethnic/multi-racial one, which itself pales in comparison to creating a multi-ethnic/multi-racial one where the foreign populations displacing the original ones are far less capable in a variety of cognitive and behavioral traits.

US Census data just came out and the only 3 states with population declines were West Virginia, Mississippi and Illinois. Population grew everywhere else and using Census data, population in formal city boundaries grew. Are population growth distributions even? No. But those specific neighborhoods are isolated such that it doesn't affect US growth.

Yes, because two of those three are White trash states and are hardly the places immigrants are going to go to. Not sure how this has anything to do with the debate? They are poor podunk states filled with the dumbest Whites whose ancestors came from the wild borderlands of the English-Scottish border and who still make up the great majority of the White populations (of those first two states) today. How is any of this relevant? When immigrants go to the UK they don't usually end up in rural Scotland. You must be shocked that London has higher population growth rates than Dornoch, Scotland. But I am more shocked that this is being posited as giving any support for either side of the debate...

They aren't leaving, population is in fact growing for 47 out of 50 states. The claims of white flight simply haven't panned out anywhere. No white flight in CA in the 1990s, in TX in the 2010s, etc; even as those states became multi-ethnicized. In any case, the existence of min-maj or maj-min states in the United States (for a long time to boot) indicates that in fact, no, becoming more diverse will not be a deterrent to continued US growth and power.

Wrong, you mean the low-success minorities aren't leaving (as quickly). The number of Whites in California by decade as reported by the Census:

1990: 17,029,126
2000: 15,816,790
2010: 14,938,836
2019: 14,421,962 (an estimate from the Bureau, final numbers will be worse)

More people have been leaving the state than entering it for a while now:


Source again is the Census Bureau:

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[nlalyst]

In case this wasn't posted already. A pessimistic viewpoint: