China demographics thread.

[manqiangrexue]

1.29 before 2050 is still better than China today. India having a 30 years advantage in demographics is ultimately not what you want to see. Even if Indians are not as competent as Chinese, the sheer number of them around the world will bring consequences to China’s interests. Indians are already influencing politics in the UK and US. It’ll only get worse since they very much see China as an opponent to attack however possible.

A large number of incompetent people do not suppress a smaller number of competent people just like the value of 10 dog turds will not exceed the value of a gold brick, even if you went up to 100 or 1,000 dog turds. Indian incompetence is self-limiting; they literally shoot each other more than they shoot their enemy when they get sent into conflicts. And Indians cannot influence politics in the West; they are not white and they are not Israelis. Indians are too visibly different and will always be under the microscope for loyalty to their current country rather than loyalty to India. And that's assuming they still have loyalty to India, when in reality, Indians who make a good life in the West refuse to contribute anything to or return to India.

 

[PeregrineFalcon]

Proselytizing Christianity is something I'm familiar with as I had been at the receiving end many years ago. So much malarkey and I think it should be banned here as they are fanatics.

Totally agree. Problem is how many christians does china now have and how many are from underground churches. You might sinicise the religion but if the leaders and pastors look to the west for knowledge and inspiration more and more problems for the state and society will arise once the number of believers are many enough to flex their muscles and influence government and society. Just look at south korea, singapore and hong kong.

 

[Randomuser]

India is below replacement now and trends show it going the way of South Korea.

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If China's problem is getting old before getting rich, India's could be getting old while still poor.

Honestly this should be much bigger news. But for some reason it's getting swept under the rug. Keep in mind the birth rate will actually get worse as they become more developed.

Maybe they won't want this spreading because this contradicts a lot assumed about China. After all India followed so many things in the west, is a developing country and STILL has the same projected demographic problem. This shows thos problem is global and no one has a real solution especially for a big country that can't get free American finding like someone we know.

Easy to mock China but let's see these other countries come up with something better despite having less people to deal with. After all they are in the same boat.

 

[coolgod]

Honestly this should be much bigger news. But for some reason it's getting swept under the rug. Keep in mind the birth rate will actually get worse as they become more developed.

Maybe they won't want this spreading because this contradicts a lot assumed about China. After all India followed so many things in the west, is a developing country and STILL has the same projected demographic problem. This shows thos problem is global and no one has a real solution especially for a big country that can't get free American finding like someone we know.

Easy to mock China but let's see these other countries come up with something better despite having less people to deal with. After all they are in the same boat.

I think it's slightly too early to talk about India's demographics since its last census is from 2011. Its birth rate could have significantly differed from predictions, we have to wait and see.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Honestly this should be much bigger news. But for some reason it's getting swept under the rug. Keep in mind the birth rate will actually get worse as they become more developed.

Maybe they won't want this spreading because this contradicts a lot assumed about China. After all India followed so many things in the west, is a developing country and STILL has the same projected demographic problem. This shows thos problem is global and no one has a real solution especially for a big country that can't get free American finding like someone we know.

Easy to mock China but let's see these other countries come up with something better despite having less people to deal with. After all they are in the same boat.

Yep the reality is that as India modernizes their fertility will drop like a rock too. As much as they think they're special they're not. The pollution, heavy work culture, social media and religion clashing with modernity is already catching up to them and dragging their fertility rate down. Modi is just the last generation of Indian boomers on their way out the door.

The only high fertility countries I see outside of Africa are like Egypt, Iraq and someone else. All of them basically have food paid for by aid. Otherwise even the Middle East has low fertility - see the drop in Turkey and Iran. Even Saudi Arabia dropped to 2.0.

 

[Eventine]

South Korea getting more desperate by the day:

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But that also begs the question - when will the Chinese government take it more seriously?

 

[BlackWindMnt]

South Korea getting more desperate by the day:

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But that also begs the question - when will the Chinese government take it more seriously?

They have been doing policies South Korea as far as i know isn't daring to take.
Drop the cost of rising a child by making private tutoring harder to access(?).
Also putting a cap and lowering the bottom of the real-estate market.
Time will tell if that is enough to increase it tho.

 

[Staedler]

South Korea getting more desperate by the day:

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But that also begs the question - when will the Chinese government take it more seriously?

South Korea's not getting desperate. if they were, they would be actually spending the significant amount of money needed to even attempt at a solution. This is just like efforts at combating climate change in these countries.

They've spent $0.01 of the needed $1000 on feel-good-items and pat-yourself-on-the-back agencies, meetings, and ministry. They've done nothing substantial at all.


China isn't even close to the situation South Korea's in and its already done significantly more to address the issue. For example, they did a forced deflation of the real-estate market - taking maybe 2% out of their annual GDP growth - to help combat some of these issues. China might still need to do more, but what has South Korea actually done to confront their own problems other than empty words and bluster? Nothing.

The article literally says:

The ministry, once launched, plans to bolster public campaigns and promotions to address demographic challenges, and conduct research and analysis on demographic data, officials said.

That's a big bag of nothing.

I wouldn't use empty talk from South Korea as evidence that somehow they are tackling the problem more seriously than China.

 

[Wrought]

Just a reminder that demographics are a long-term problem, not a short-term one.

The first and most important reason that China’s demographics are non-catastrophic is that they’ve got a large generation of young people, currently aged 5 to 15, that will relieve demographic pressure in the coming years.

Anyway, as the Alphas reach working age over the next decade, they will stabilize China’s demographics. China’s working-age population is actually projected to increase over the next few years, before beginning a slow decline:

China’s dependency ratio in 2030 will still be as good as Japan’s at the height of its economic miracle. Only by mid-century will China’s ratio deteriorate to the level of Japan’s in 2020.

So aging basically won’t be a problem for China’s workforce until mid-century. Around 2050, things start to look worse. China’s big Millennial generation will begin to age out of the workforce, and no large young cohort will be coming up to replace them:

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[tokenanalyst]

Just a reminder that demographics are a long-term problem, not a short-term one.

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There not long term problems just short term solutions.