China demographics thread.

[AndrewS]

I think English requirements are already dropped for graduation, only requires for MS/PHD entry.

1 other problem is that there aren't enough jobs for mid tier university graduates. Pay gap is too big. 211 and 985 graduates are in huge demand while even regular tier 1 graduates are struggling.

Demographics is really complicated now and nobody has really figured it out.

Historically we only know of 3 eras of significant demographic expansion:

1. Colonialism bringing high calorie potato to Europe and Asia in 1500s. Increased population but not per capita income.

2. Coal based industrialization and Haber-Bosch process in 1870-1920 which led to both increased population and per capita income. But by 1920 birth rates were declining again.

3. Oil and electricity based industrialization after WW2 to 1990. Biggest leap in population by far as this finally changed manual farming to mechanical farming. And now there is a birth rate decline again since 1990s.

In no other eras were there continuous population growth.

1. There was also sweetcorn, so call it "new crops from the Americas" overall

2. Item 2 was part of the First Industrial Revolution

3. Item 3 was part of the Second Industrial Revolution

And we're now in the midst of the Third Industrial Revolution (known as the Fourth in Europe) which comprises solar/wind/batteries/electric transport/AI/5G/Biotech/etc.

But I severely doubt these technologies will increase population

 

[resistance]

About India. They have a lot of chance to industrialize since 1950s. British did lay good foundation for industrialization. Unlike china, India never get heavy sanctions from the west or being war thorn like Afghanistan. But still, India haven't reach meaningful development for reasons.
But anyways in the future, this Chinese project will nailed down coffin of the nation called India.

PS. This project will fixed the root cause of Chinese demographics problem. Which is increase carrying capacity.

 

[Serb]

About India. They have a lot of chance to industrialize since 1950s. British did lay good foundation for industrialization. Unlike china, India never get heavy sanctions from the west or being war thorn like Afghanistan. But still, India haven't reach meaningful development for reasons.
But anyways in the future, this Chinese project will nailed down coffin of the nation called India.

PS. This project will fixed the root cause of Chinese demographics problem. Which is increase carrying capacity.

Regarding India, only 40% of the population speaking Hindi says everything.

They are more reminiscent of a continent like Africa than a coherent homogenous country like China.

I think that even India in the form of a pseudo-country like today won't remain for long.

They accidentally became a country thanks to the British, they were never known to be particularly unified throughout history.

They can have 10 billion people, in the sub-continent, but if they are internally divided as of now, they are not going to accomplish anything as a so-called one entity-nation India in the long run.

This is not even considering the things I mentioned in my previous post.

Saying that India is going to overtake China simply due to its population quantity is crazy.

Hell, you can even compare India and Iran, and see how miles ahead more united a country like Iran is.

Not to mention China. India is a sum of many different ethnic groups.

Han Chinese are still the most numerous ethnic group and will remain that forever.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Economic growth the last quarter
India: 8.4%
Taiwan 6.5%
China 5.3%
South Korea 3.4%
Japan 0.4%

Based on the data, perhaps East Asia should be asking themselves why they are not as successful as India.

 

[Serb]

Economic growth the last quarter
India: 8.4%
Taiwan 6.5%
China 5.3%
South Korea 3.4%
Japan 0.4%

Based on the data, perhaps East Asia should be asking themselves why they are not as successful as India.

Those other countries are already advanced developed countries and economies, so it is logical why they would have slower economic growth than India (basic economics sense).

China is a moderately developed country (certainly compared to India which is in the lowest 15 countries on the global hunger index), but in absolute numbers, it still dwarfs India in absolute growth of GDP (widens the gap), even while on such a higher developmental stage.

Contributed twice as much as India in the last year, with 33% new global added GDP share, whereas India had 15-16%. (Despite India being 16.5 years behind China in GDP).

India needs to grow much more relatively to start narrowing the gap with China. And China during similar development periods certainly grew more than India.

If we take China for example at a point in time when they had a $1500 per capita GDP, and then go 11 years after that, China grew 430%, whereas India grew 100%.

You can probably also take a similar point on the developmental stage of all those countries, Japan, South Korea, and entities like Hong Kong and Taiwan, and see a similar thing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1699300116967182616

 

[azn_cyniq]

No, it doesn't. Why don't you actually look at the economic policies of east Asian countries instead of just saying chauvinistic shit that makes you feel superior

I don't feel superior to anyone at all...

I believe that feeling superior to other people because of things that are out of my control will inevitably lead to failure. I'm not Albert Einstein. I'm not Carl Gauss. I know that I was born with certain limitations. Nonetheless, I try my best to do the most that I possibly can with the cards that I was dealt. That's the best that I can do.

However, the most up-to-date science tells us that intelligence is hereditary. You can attack me if you want, but I'm not responsible for that discovery.

 

[doggydogdo]

But why do they (East Asians) have better economic policies than Indians, for example, fundamentally in the first place?

Strong government.

Everything comes down to the innate quality of the population itself (intelligence, culture, and general personality traits like agreeableness and conscientiousness).

Population decides its political system, population decides its politicians, hence even economic policies. It doesn't come out of thin air.

Most of the east Asian countries were literally US backed dictatorships. It's also why US had their markets open to those countries.

Also, economic policies are not everything that matters for development, there are 5-10 other factors as well.

You can have the best economic policies, in the world, but if your population is unqualified (not intelligent enough) to work and compete in higher-valued-added industries and manufacturing broadly, and compete on a global stage, you did nothing.

But even before then, if your population isn't willing to be patient enough to work hard in factories over time in low-value industries, extremely intense jobs, for good portions of their lives, until you as a nation accumulate enough capital required to invest in those fixed assets, required for higher-value-added, and higher quality jobs, for next generation, it similarly can't happen.

Education is an economic policy; east Asian countries have heavily invested in education.

East Asian countries are the only countries empirically shown to be able to economically develop to a decent level without any colonialism and extremely late when the West already had hundreds of years of accumulated economic advantages.

So, why did no country in the hundred+ of different countries in the Global South manage to do the same as them?

There have to be much deeper cultural, but mostly biological factors (seen how all East Asians have certain similarities).

It is not only about some kind of general intelligence but also biological predisposition to certain 'collectivistic' personality traits.

That kind of Western hypocritical way of thinking "anyone could accomplish anything, grow wings and fly", is false and "fairy tale".

Soviet Union literally had the second highest economic growth after Japan in 20th century. It's not an east Asian country lol

 

[azn_cyniq]

Economic growth the last quarter
India: 8.4%
Taiwan 6.5%
China 5.3%
South Korea 3.4%
Japan 0.4%

Based on the data, perhaps East Asia should be asking themselves why they are not as successful as India.

Taiwan's nominal GDP per capita in 2023 was $32,443. India's was $2,612..

 

[Serb]

Strong government.

Half of the world today has "strong governments", yet no similar results to show as East Asian countries have.

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And South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, even have much "weaker governments" than a majority of the African countries for example, and are classified as democracies, so I don't think this makes any sense.

Most of the east Asian countries were literally US backed dictatorships. It's also why US had their markets open to those countries.

The US gov. didn't give them anything. Instead, the US corporate class that controls the US gov. noticed the business opportunities there (due to the naturally intelligent, conscientiousness, agreeable, hardworking, high-skilled, and affordable labor force) and started investing there slowly and lobbied for exporting to the US to make more $$$.

Education is an economic policy; east Asian countries have heavily invested in education.

But WHY, why did they invest in the first place, when others don't? There has to be some innate fundamental reason.

And you can't increase your fluid intelligence with education, you can only learn industry-specific skills/knowledge.

Soviet Union literally had the second highest economic growth after Japan in 20th century. It's not an east Asian country lol

I think that they were 6th.

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[azn_cyniq]

Everything comes down to the innate quality of the population itself (intelligence, culture, and general personality traits like agreeableness and conscientiousness).

I agree.

Serbia, for instance, is a country of less than 7 million people that was engulfed by war not too long ago. However, it has a talented population so it excels at many things.

Serbia started participating in the International Math Olympiad in 2006 and it has already accumulated 16 gold medals. India started participating in 1989 and it has also accumulated 16 gold medals. The International Math Olympiad is not a random competition. IMO medalists are among the brightest minds in the world and 16 participants have gone on to win a Fields Medal.