China demographics thread.

august1

New Member
And government-subsidised public healthcare is one way to ameliorate China’s birth rate decline.
This is a very odd conclusion to come to since healthcare in many of the world's lowest-fertility countries, such as Japan and Itay, are very heavily subsidized by the government - a fact that has been established very early on in this thread. I think this discussion is becoming circular and we need to think more outside the box.
 

didklmyself

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is a very odd conclusion to come to since healthcare in many of the world's lowest-fertility countries, such as Japan and Itay, are very heavily subsidized by the government - a fact that has been established very early on in this thread. I think this discussion is becoming circular and we need to think more outside the box.
Just look at Hungary , the failure of theirs to push TFR. I guess it is more of a cultural issue, women are being independent, they want to achieve in their workspace.
No one is simply going to pump out children just because the Healthcare, education or other child services are cheaper.
Those who want children will mostly reproduce irrespective of costs, those who don't won't even if they are paid to...
 

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is a very odd conclusion to come to since healthcare in many of the world's lowest-fertility countries, such as Japan and Itay, are very heavily subsidized by the government - a fact that has been established very early on in this thread. I think this discussion is becoming circular and we need to think more outside the box.
Well, that’s why I argue that it is one of the solutions. Now it seems like it can only ameliorate the situation by providing more disposable incomes to single parents and families with 3 kids or more. The idea is that the government would somewhat look after families that would be committed to helping to replenish the population. The retirement age for folks born after 01/01/1978 should be raised to 68, or even 70. It will be an unpopular move, and violent protests could last for months following such policy change. But it needs to be done (just like in France, but more drastic).
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well, that’s why I argue that it is one of the solutions. Now it seems like it can only ameliorate the situation by providing more disposable incomes to single parents and families with 3 kids or more. The idea is that the government would somewhat look after families that would be committed to helping to replenish the population. The retirement age for folks born after 01/01/1978 should be raised to 68, or even 70. It will be an unpopular move, and violent protests could last for months following such policy change. But it needs to be done (just like in France, but more drastic).
I think radical education reform is more important than radical healthcare reform for now.

There's enough healthcare for most conditions. Can't get a high average life expectancy if there wasn't.

But Koreans and Chinese alike cite too heavy pressure for children education a reason they don't want more. And it directly delays child birth. The fundamental problem is limited educational resources.

Luckily it is far cheaper to solve education than it is to solve healthcare.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I know this forum is biased toward jingoistic nationalists like you and dozens of other.
Oh you know that this is one of the rare places in the American internet where you don't get coddled like a lil angel child for complaining that the CCP was mean to you and didn't let you run amock infecting others during COVID?
I understand, and I am ready to move on!
The mods almost moved you on the last time. You'll move on yourself now?
I am not going to challenge your narrative dominance on this forum anymore. Let facts on the ground decide for themselves. We are just observers. No need to get personal!
Keep your observations clear from hanjian slander.
Having said that, I think we can all agree that many of China’s problem should not be over looked, including declining birth rate and the social problems causing young people not to get married and have kids. I absolutely agree with you that when today’ youths who refuse to get married and have kids get old, they do not deserve to get a penny from the government besides their own meagre social security and savings.
OK
In fact, I argue that there should be a monthly tax/fine levied on social groups (including WeChat/Weibo/WhatsApp forums) and their members who actively encourage young women and men not to have kids. The money would ideally then be used to subsidised the livelihoods of single families and families with 3 or more kids. Tax the single advocates to subsidise the hardworking mothers and fathers.
This is not a tax or little money issue. In Russia, there is a very serious charge called "corruption of the youth" and those engaged in it go to jail, some never heard of again.
But I don’t quite understand your confidence in technology. Technology will cost money, so will doctors and nurses hired to operate them. The AI softwares running them also require maintenance of which the IT tech folks would certainly demand higher pays. That would higher tax (or another round of massive economic expansion) to generate more revenue. Given the fact that China will no longer return to the 8-10% growth of the 2000s, and real-estate is no longer the goose that lays the golden egg, whilst demands for public healthcare (particularly birth, childcare, and elderly care) will continue to increase, there needs to be additional sources of tax revenue. And government-subsidised public healthcare is one way to ameliorate China’s birth rate decline.
Throughout human history, technology has always reduced the need for manual labor. Technology is like a snowball, with more and more of it evolving rapidly as we near modern times. China is not in the fast and dirty phase of 10% growth anymore but its technology has never improved more rapidly than it is now. So my confidence in this is doubled, firstly because technology always replaces human labor everywhere and secondly because nobody comes close to China's currently accelerating and already world-beating speed of technological advancement.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
But Koreans and Chinese alike cite too heavy pressure for children education a reason they don't want more. And it directly delays child birth. The fundamental problem is limited educational resources.
Would increasing the 9-year mandatory education to 12 years (high school included) be too prohibitively expensive?

Another option is to give private school more space to grow, so rich kids would go to certified privately owned middle and high schools out of their families’ pocket books, whilst public schools would be for the lower middle class and blue collar kids. But this option by itself would exacerbate the wealth gap and social stratification, as high-skilled professors and teachers would all join private schools as opposed to public ones. One way to regulate it is to set up party cells in private schools to indoctrinate rich kids and require them to go though basic military trainings, but such political moves do little to address the disparity in educational resources. It is the same issue with every country’s medical system, including those of the U.S. and China.

How about for both post-graduate doctors and school teachers, they must serve in public hospitals and schools for 7-10 years before they could receive the licenses to work in private clinics and teach in private schools? In this sense, whilst imperfect, there would at least be a supply to doctors and teachers for public institutions, whilst the upper middle class and rich could still enjoy the superior service if they are willing to pay out of their own pocket?
 

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
What kind of genetic advantages exist between East Asians and Indian/Africans/Latin Americans/South Asians that has resulted in them being successful?
The heritability of IQ is around 80%.

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Unfortunately, this is the truth. It would be foolish to think that this has no effect on the trajectory of a nation. It is absolutely immoral to use this information to discriminate, but for the sake of truth, it should not be surpressed either. Then again, IQ is by no means a perfect metric, but it is still important.
 

ChongqingHotPot92

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is not a tax or little money issue. In Russia, there is a very serious charge called "corruption of the youth" and those engaged in it go to jail, some never heard of again.
If you put them in jail, you would have to spend taxpayers’ money to feed them and pay cops to constantly beat them into submission. Much better off to seize their passports so they cannot 润, tax/fine them hard until they abandon their disruptive social activities, but help them find jobs that require constant attention to detail, so they don’t have time to engage in their online chat rooms. Shang Yang figured this out 2000 years ago, when he wrote about how to use a combination of busy labour, PUA/propaganda, harsh sentences, and “taxing the rich” to compel loyalty from subjects. I don’t agree with Shang Yang on a lot of things, but those woke radical anti-birth/family folks today should be subjected to some of Shang Yang’s prescriptions at minimal cost to the state’s coffers.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
If you put them in jail, you would have to spend taxpayers’ money to feed them and pay cops to constantly beat them into submission.
The well-deserved beatings are patriotic duty and given free of charge. Criminals are what jail is for; you cannot argue that to save money, we let the criminals out and fine them instead. That's why America's crime rate is so high.
Much better off to seize their passports so they cannot 润, tax/fine them hard until they abandon their disruptive social activities
The CIA will pay your fines and they will continue.
, but help them find jobs that require constant attention to detail, so they don’t have time to engage in their online chat rooms.
That's a watered down version of re-education through labor. Just give em the full working version in jail.
Shang Yang figured this out 2000 years ago, when he wrote about how to use a combination of busy labour, PUA/propaganda, harsh sentences, and “taxing the rich” to compel loyalty from subjects. I don’t agree with Shang Yang on a lot of things, but those woke radical anti-birth/family folks today should be subjected to some of Shang Yang’s prescriptions at minimal cost to the state’s coffers.
Alright, I've had enough of it. This is a fantasy. China's too free a place right now. The government won't pounce on them, but will only work against them by making things better for the people. This isn't a barbaric state like the US or Germany where agents show up at your door because you said something positive about Palestine/Russia or you get pulled off the street and into jail for wearing a Z shirt.
 
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