China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Interesting graphs because Americans like to boast about their immigration. But what is the average age of a southern border illegal migrant(big bulk of the migrants into the US) probably late 20s and early 30s i reckon and mostly males? Those males probably have to pretty much start from zero so it will take a couple of years before they can settle down and start a family or bring over their family.
Until China started experiencing its first demographic-related problems, the US would have collapsed in civil times 5 times already!
Yes, anyway in economics, the macroeconomic productivity growth projections of various countries always factor in and model - human capital, TFP, capital, not only labor, in their calculation.
If they have less crude labor, the central government and other actors will start developing/focusing on the existing workforce's human capital (education, health) and TFP (science, technology).
And if Japan or South Korea are good relative comparisons to China, then the "quality" and "depth" of the Chinese economy can really grow much further than now for multiple decades even.
And what the Westerners are doing to address the same issue is a bunch of unselective immigration of economically and socially unfitting immigrants that are more of a liability, than are asset. This is on top of the already very deep polarization of their native citizens themselves.
Most of the work that those migrants could even realistically do with their qualifications will be replaced by AI in a few years if it is not already completely replaced by various modern tech and became obsolete. So, they just wasted resources and social capital practically for nothing.
But to be honest, there is no way that they can increase their TFP or human capital in the magnitude that China can, they've already vaguely reached their developmental ceiling (in terms of human capital/education entirely, TFP nearly entirely and they have left nowhere near the potential here to improve than China has there). Nevertheless, this situation is still way better than accepting all those immigrants as they did.
If they have less crude labor, the central government and other actors will start developing/focusing on the existing workforce's human capital (education, health) and TFP (science, technology).
And if Japan or South Korea are good relative comparisons to China, then the "quality" and "depth" of the Chinese economy can really grow much further than now for multiple decades even.
And what the Westerners are doing to address the same issue is a bunch of unselective immigration of economically and socially unfitting immigrants that are more of a liability, than are asset. This is on top of the already very deep polarization of their native citizens themselves.
Most of the work that those migrants could even realistically do with their qualifications will be replaced by AI in a few years if it is not already completely replaced by various modern tech and became obsolete. So, they just wasted resources and social capital practically for nothing.
But to be honest, there is no way that they can increase their TFP or human capital in the magnitude that China can, they've already vaguely reached their developmental ceiling (in terms of human capital/education entirely, TFP nearly entirely and they have left nowhere near the potential here to improve than China has there). Nevertheless, this situation is still way better than accepting all those immigrants as they did.
Ever a day where the west isn't projecting?
Until China started experiencing its first demographic-related problems, the US would have collapsed in civil times 5 times already!
I remember seeing on Reddit this comment:
So we are importing a load of unskilled men who are already adults and will have trouble fitting into our current society due to language/cultural/skill issues. And this is happening in a time where AI and automation is taking off so the number of jobs they have is decreasing every moment. And this is somehow sustainable?
And yet for some reason, westerners are like we will win because immigration (without specifying) will mean our birthrates are sustainable so take that China! Im really amazed at the ability to know the problem and yet at the same time think its not a problem coz CYNHA.
This is probably the tactic the upper echelons use. This thing is clearly gonna screw over most people. But if we tell them we can defeat China with this, then they will accept it without hesitation! And so far it has worked well.
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The US has a substantially worse demographic outlook than China in reality, despite what their propaganda machine and arrogant brains generate.
Even with a slowly shrinking labor force size, the Chinese labor force will still be getting more and more productive with each passing year for a very long time.
Even with a slowly shrinking labor force size, the Chinese labor force will still be getting more and more productive with each passing year for a very long time.
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Jan-Feb China birth numbers down 9.8%
Not good news, as last year it had slowed to a 5.65% drop. This could be the first acceleration of decline since 2020, China can't afford it. Hard to believe given that China's marriages actually slightly rose last year, plus year of the dragon. Although technically Feb. 10 was the first Dragon Year day, but still concerning. There is a Chinese blogger this person cites further down who might be worth following.
Not good news, as last year it had slowed to a 5.65% drop. This could be the first acceleration of decline since 2020, China can't afford it. Hard to believe given that China's marriages actually slightly rose last year, plus year of the dragon. Although technically Feb. 10 was the first Dragon Year day, but still concerning. There is a Chinese blogger this person cites further down who might be worth following.
this is just a sampling of northern China around the Beijing-Tianjin area though.
If Chinese couples do indeed aim for the Year of the Dragon, then this is probably what you would expect; Many Couples planning to have kids choosing to hold off on conception for a couple of months to ensure a Dragon. Thus lowering births the months before and at the first few weeks of the new year.
Just looking at basic demographics data suggests the Year of the Dragon might not have any real impact though. While 2012 saw a clear increase in births there is no such trend for previous years of the dragon. Unless it's a recent phenomena only covering the last cycle that is.
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