China demographics thread.

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
According to your sources:

Iran's fertility rate is 2.09, which is extremely high by East Asian standards.

Saudi Arabia's fertility rate is 2.175, which is even higher than Iran's.

Finland's fertility rate is 1.42, which is very high by East Asian standards.

Ireland's fertility rate is 1.79, which is much higher than Finland and almost as high as Iran.

All of those countries have high birth rates compared to the secular, socially conservative East Asian countries. It would be considered a miracle by anyone hoping for higher East Asian fertility, if any East Asian country outside of North Korea or Mongolia had those fertility rates next year.

(That is assuming those numbers are right, which I have doubts as to, since for China, they claim the birth rate for 2022 is higher than in 2016 even though China had 45% fewer births in 2022 than 2016. The number of fertile women in China did not drop more than 45% between 2016 and 2022, so we know their data for China is not right.)

Secular social conservatism is a civilization-killer. This would be more clear if there were more religious socially liberal societies, but there are not because all the world's major religions are socially conservative. But there is evidence that secularism lowers birth rates, and when you add social conservatism and East Asian work culture on top of that, it's even worse.
but their birth rates all collapsed within decades relative to the past, just as East Asia's did. They're just less far along in the process.

The difference between 1.42 and 1.79 and lower or whatever, is just a few years in China's case. That's not much time in a demographic transition. All these countries will drop soon and noen of them have any solutions either.
 

Quan8410

Junior Member
Registered Member
Let say China government failed in all attempt in increasing birth rate then they will need to force it, no matter if their citizens like it or not. China already has a culture of encouraging child-bearing, they just forgot it.
 

eprash

Junior Member
Registered Member
Let say China government failed in all attempt in increasing birth rate then they will need to force it, no matter if their citizens like it or not. China already has a culture of encouraging child-bearing, they just forgot it.
Isn't housing the biggest issue why young people are reluctant to get married?, Government would have to acquire all private players consolidate and make it a low profit socially focused enterprise like current high speed railways
 

KYli

Brigadier
I would wish China had Iran 1.7 or Japan 1.37 TFR because this year it seems it will fall below the 1.0 (2022 - 1.08) if prediction of about 7 million births are correct. Right now China is following South Korea, we'll see if there's going to be any change to the current pattern of free fall in births. I hope it can go back to 1.4 or above.
7 million births this year is just another exaggerated statistics by a professor that wanted to be famous and anti-China SCMP. There is no way that the total births this year would be 7 million. Most of the early statistics coming out of major cities and counties have shown births decline of 2% to 12% with few exceptions. The estimate is 10% decline this year at most so 8.5 million births this year is the low estimate.

Due to pandemic, economy, more women delaying having babies to pursue higher education and career, the decline of birthrates is much more profound. However, China doesn't have a demographics like South Korea yet. Many women born in 80s and 90s which delayed having children would still want to have children in the next few years. Although, China doesn't have that much time. It probably has 10 years to have policies in place to incentivize having more babies. By the time women born after 00s and 10s, these women need to have more than 1 child if China wanted to stabilize the birthrates.
 

KYli

Brigadier
Isn't housing the biggest issue why young people are reluctant to get married?, Government would have to acquire all private players consolidate and make it a low profit socially focused enterprise like current high speed railways
Housing is a drag but resolving housing problem would not necessary resolve the low birthrates problem. Government needs also resolve the extreme feminism movement and tiger moms problem. Many women have unrealistic expectation due to feminism movement and have delayed their marriage until it is too late to find someone suitable. Tiger moms is also a very problematic as many women spent so much money on their children due to peer pressure or unrealistic expectation of their children which ended up draining their financial resources and well being that many women chose to not have a second child.
 

Quan8410

Junior Member
Registered Member
Isn't housing the biggest issue why young people are reluctant to get married?, Government would have to acquire all private players consolidate and make it a low profit socially focused enterprise like current high speed railways
It's maybe even more complicated. The rise of feminism in China leads to large number of women don't even want to get married and having kids. Youth employment is rising meaning more people will defer having babies (if they wants one) until they find a job. Housing bubble is a fund for many local governments (who is one mainly responsible for concrete measures of increasing birth rate, central government provides the targets and directions only) for decades and if it burst when these local governments does not change the model for funding then they will not have money for provide incentives for the youth.
 

Michael90

Junior Member
Registered Member
Let say China government failed in all attempt in increasing birth rate then they will need to force it, no matter if their citizens like it or not. China already has a culture of encouraging child-bearing, they just forgot it.
Lmao, how do you force people to have children? Lool You mean the Chinese governemnt will go around forcing people to have unprotected sex with their woman to have children? Lool That's not feasible. If the government ever tried to force people to have children against their will, the people might evennlead to an uprising against government due to public anger and dissatisfaction. Afterall, people are more educated, open and aware today than they were in the 70s and 90s. The younger génération is less tolérant and more demanding than their parents génération. For example, i believe if the one child policy was introduced today, i think the Chinese people reaction would have been different compared to their parents generation.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yes, but China is already facing this issue while not being a developed country yet.
China is either right on the border, or will pass, the World Bank defined nominal GDP per capita for high income country.

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More importantly, China already has exceeded the life expectancy of some certain developed countries, has lower maternal mortality than said certain developed countries, and is #1 in almost every product market.

Consumption of household durables like appliances has been saturated for decades - even in rural areas.

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