China demographics thread.

[PeoplesPoster]

Interesting analysis by DukeofQin

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1613165895362269186

A lot of energy and money (thousands of dollars in vet bills and pet food and grooming) coming from well educated, middle class females going towards their pets when traditionally that energy would have bene put towards raising a child/children. This phenomenon is not simply a Chinese issue but also rank in the developed OECD.
Anecdotally, i've seen it when women unironically say that their pets are the same as a human child, even going so far as to pressure the government for legislative changes, for eg in Denmark you can bring your dogs (not service animals) onto the subway whereas as far back as the 2000s, this was unheard of.

So what is the solution? There is no easy solution, are we going to ban under 30 year old women from having pets? barring them from college until they have kids? No developed OECD nation has successfully solved this population crisis and importing africans and arabs is merely a band aid solution, effectively vampirically leeching from the human capital of other nations.

this is the dumbest theory. May as well blame video games and porn for keeping young males from starting families.

 

[Maikeru]

Finally a bit of nuance from BBC:

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[supercat]

The issue is a precipitate drop like going from 1.7 TFR in 2017 to 1.18 in 2021. That's a 50% drop in four years.

This does not sound normal. I'm wondering if it has something to do with COVID-19. But China still has more than 1.4 billion people with 62% (more than 840 million) in the working age group of 16-59 yo by the end of the day. I think the increase in China's productivity will overcome any slight drop in absolute population in the short and mid terms. Long termly, China will become a much richer country and it won't be worse off than other rich East Asian and European countries that have low birth rate currently.

 

[gadgetcool5]

If you look at the statistics I posted above, the drop in China's birth rate is not due to Covid. The number of marriages has been falling since 2013 and are down 50%. The birth rate started to plunge in 2018. There was an 15% plunge in births already apparent in 2020, but that cohort of mothers mostly conceived in 2019. Also, the decline in first marriages accelerated in 2019, which could explain that drop. So the trend definitely precedes Covid.

 

[Minm]

If you look at the statistics I posted above, the drop in China's birth rate is not due to Covid. The number of marriages has been falling since 2013 and are down 50%. The birth rate started to plunge in 2018. There was an 15% plunge in births already apparent in 2020, but that cohort of mothers mostly conceived in 2019. Also, the decline in first marriages accelerated in 2019, which could explain that drop. So the trend definitely precedes Covid.

So what happened in 2017/2018 that reduced the birthrate? The only major event was the trade war, but economically 2017-2019 wasn't that bad. So what's your theory on why there's such a sudden decrease in fertility?

 

[tonyget]

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In 2014，the so called "demographic expert" Zhai Zhenwu predicted that：the second year after policy allowing two child per family，China will have 50 million new born. Now he become a laughing stock.

There are too many unqualified expert leading all kinds of wrong policies

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

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In 2014，the so called "demographic expert" Zhai Zhenwu predicted that：the second year after policy allowing two child per family，China will have 50 million new born. Now he become a laughing stock.

There are too many unqualified expert leading all kinds of wrong policies

I think he is from corrupt ex-family planning committee. They were defending they corrupt income I believe. That agency was one of the most corrupt places, good it was dissolved.

 

[supercat]

What worries some people most is that China will get old before getting rich. However, China will get older while getting richer.

Why China is anti-fragile​

Dan Blumenthal illustrates by negative example how utterly wrongheaded Washington’s strategic approach has been

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Declining workforce can be mitigated by improving productivity.

Robotic upside to China’s demographic decline​

Fewer workers mean more industrial robots, greater efficiency and higher value-added

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For those who are interested, here is a research paper about China's economic demography transition strategy.

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[Taiban]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618096375740387330

 

[Lethe]

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We remain in a national state of denial over the magnitude of China’s challenge to us, and Blumenthal’s error-ridden account shows how hard it is to sustain this self-consoling fiction in the face of massive evidence to the contrary. It is high time to focus on what China does right rather than what it does wrong – and undertake to do it better.

The author of this review fails to reckon with the power of American mythology. How things are done in America is, by definition, the best way to do things, for America is the greatest nation the world has ever seen and has nothing to learn from anyone, certainly nothing to learn from communists.

America's self-satisfied mythology impedes its ability to respond to the rise of China, and for this Beijing should be grateful. The ongoing challenge for Beijing is to ensure that China does not fall victim to its own mythologies that engender complacency and impede the adoption of evidence-based policies to meet changing circumstances.