China demographics thread.

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Deleted member 23272

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luminary said:
How much of that is due to COVID-19 deaths?
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Doubt it, I think its just last year with Zero Covid as draconian as it was it deincentivized people from having children. It was the case with other countries when they had to undergo lockdown.

Things fully reopening won't change some of the underlying factors like youngsters just simply not wanting children or the property values being too high. So we'll see how things go for the year.
 
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gadgetcool5

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gadgetcool5 said:
This data is going to be released on January 17.

Bottom line: In 2021, births dropped 11.5%. A further 11.5% drop would take births to 9.4 million. Below that is bad; above that is good.

However, there are a couple reasons to suspect that births may be higher than 9.4 million:

1) China liberalized its birth policy in May 2021 to allow a third child. During the previous liberalization, which was announced in November 2015, a brief baby boom followed in 2016. Parents who heard of the new policy in May 2021 and thus started trying to have a third child, would have had that child born in 2022 if they were successful.

2) The number of marriages dropped only 6.6% in 2021. The number of births tends to track with the number of marriages. If we used that barometer instead of linear extrapolation, we would get 9.9 million births.

There are
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saying that He Yafu, an independent demographer, "predicted that the number of newborns in China fell by 5 to 10 percent from 2021, stood at a number between 10.09 million and 9.56 million."

That seems reasonable to me. Overall at this point, 9.4 million would be slightly disappointing for the reasons above, but over 9.5 million would still be good news.
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The number came in at 9.56 million. It's good news in that the decline in births decelerated from 11.5% in 2021 to 10.0% in 2022. However, given the 3rd child liberalization of 2021 and the smaller decline marriages, more could have been hoped for. It's at the lower end of He Yafu's projection.

The big news is that China's population has now entered decline.

Fewer than 10 million births in 2022 for the first time in my life, and I will likely never live to see over 10 million again. Nor will any of us likely ever live to see China's population grow again.

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gadgetcool5

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In 2020, 2021 and 2022 China suffered at least a 10% annual decline in births each year. I crunched the numbers, and if the same percentage annual decline as 2022 continued for the next 10 years, then in 2032, China would have only 3.33 million births, fewer than the United States in 2021 (3.6 million). If it continues for 19 years, then by 2041 China would have fewer births than Russia in 2021.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
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Work-life balance/economics is usually the biggest problem. When everyone is slaving to afford an apartment and a good education for their child, don't expect them to go for a second and a third child

Social engineering should also be on the cards after the work-life balance/economic aspect has been addressed.
 
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