Do you think there's going to be a baby boom this or next year as zero covid ends?
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Doesn't appear to have happened in other countries which left lockdown in 2021. OTOH China locked down a lot harder for a lot longer, so maybe.
That doesn't explain why East Asian countries have the lowest birth rates in the world, compared to the US and Europe. In 2021, for instance, the birth rate in the U.S. actually rose, and the majority of the rise came from white mothers, not immigrants. The birth rate among white Americans is about 1.6, and they enjoy a higher standard of living than most East Asians. The combination of East Asian culture of modern capitalism seems to be a uniquely toxic mix in bringing birth rates below 1 in places like Korea, Taiwan, and parts of China.
This data is going to be released on January 17.
Bottom line: In 2021, births dropped 11.5%. A further 11.5% drop would take births to 9.4 million. Below that is bad; above that is good.
However, there are a couple reasons to suspect that births may be higher than 9.4 million:
1) China liberalized its birth policy in May 2021 to allow a third child. During the previous liberalization, which was announced in November 2015, a brief baby boom followed in 2016. Parents who heard of the new policy in May 2021 and thus started trying to have a third child, would have had that child born in 2022 if they were successful.
2) The number of marriages dropped only 6.6% in 2021. The number of births tends to track with the number of marriages. If we used that barometer instead of linear extrapolation, we would get 9.9 million births.
There are saying that He Yafu, an independent demographer, "predicted that the number of newborns in China fell by 5 to 10 percent from 2021, stood at a number between 10.09 million and 9.56 million."
That seems reasonable to me. Overall at this point, 9.4 million would be slightly disappointing for the reasons above, but over 9.5 million would still be good news.
The difference is due to immigration. Migrants tend to have more children than the host population. In some countries you take out children born to a parent born abroad and you have an even lower rate.
Because a lot of them, also the white Americans, are poor and still operate on the principle of "no need to get an education when I can just be a baby factory at home". Just look at how things look in the more rural areas in USA or in the ghettos.
Wealth inequality is completely different in USA than China. The top 1% own far more of their economy than it does for the Chinese.
The shittiest jobs in China, I.e. factory blue collar workers are about equivalent to the same counterparts in USA in terms of their spending power. Of course, that is not a compliment for China, but it could still be worse. In US you have even more shitty jobs that are bordering on slave labor.
If you look at an European country with similar profile as China such as Germany, you will see that birthrates are similarly low, even with massive immigration. This is a fairly natural course as the native population gain access to cheap education, good jobs and strong social net. The pressure to create a second generation reduces as people would rather live in the now rather than be bound by traditional expectations.
The population growth evolution in China by province, from 1998 to 2021. Not looking good at all, especially from 2017 onwards...
Why is Xizang's population increase so high? Another thing that stood out to me was how fast Xinjiang's population increase dropped. I think if we don't get misled by the covid data starting from 2020 it's not that bad.
I have been lurking in the trend for a while now, and I just want to ask if someone can give a summary:
1 why is there a general low desire to have children in well developed economies?
2 following on is there any developed country in the world that has successfully counter acted this low desire and boosted indigenous population?
3 what should China do to change this desire?
From my observation no country have successfully reversed population decline through paying extra child care benefits
1 why is there a general low desire to have children in well developed economies?
2 following on is there any developed country in the world that has successfully counter acted this low desire and boosted indigenous population?
3 what should China do to change this desire?
From my observation no country have successfully reversed population decline through paying extra child care benefits
For developed countries, most families are dual-earner families. Due to women empowerment and financial independent, many women might feel it is more important to retain their standard of living and career advancement than having children. In addition, having children requires a lot of resources and investment, many families in developed countries just can't cope with such pressure and demands and responsibilities.
Most countries were not very successful in persuading women to have more children but many countries do see an uptick of births with more child care benefits. China doesn't need to drastic increase in births. It just needs to increase births in 1 to 2 millions per year for the next few decades. I am not too pessimistic as some members here as between allowing families to have more than 2 children, ending COVID and handing out more child care benefits, I would think the decline of births per year would be slow down and stop in the near term.
Most countries were not very successful in persuading women to have more children but many countries do see an uptick of births with more child care benefits. China doesn't need to drastic increase in births. It just needs to increase births in 1 to 2 millions per year for the next few decades. I am not too pessimistic as some members here as between allowing families to have more than 2 children, ending COVID and handing out more child care benefits, I would think the decline of births per year would be slow down and stop in the near term.