China demographics thread.

Beihuxiang

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Some jobs you can’t actually increase productivity because of how dependent they are on chance and waiting for things to happen on their own. For example, sitting on my ass for 24 hours browsing this forum and waiting for shit to happen in an ICU isn’t productive, but you better hope there’s a doctor sitting on his ass there in case anything does. There’s a hard upper limit on parallelisation too because if too many things start to go wrong at once, people die.
 

gadgetcool5

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South Korean TFR falls to 0.79, which is probably the lowest in the world. If historical association is of any indication, China lags South Korea about ~5-10 years in terms of TFR. This is the future of the East Asia, if drastic steps are not taken to reverse the TFR decline.

The South Korea news sounded too good to be true, and it looks like it was. She has been repudiated by the president for floating ideas that are against the government's "principles", according to another article on the website. The article didn't say what those principles were. Perhaps one of the principles is the national extermination of South Korea?
 

Michaelsinodef

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The South Korea news sounded too good to be true, and it looks like it was. She has been repudiated by the president for floating ideas that are against the government's "principles", according to another article on the website. The article didn't say what those principles were. Perhaps one of the principles is the national extermination of South Korea?
Nah, it's just she is floating ideas to boost fertility that would go against the big companies backing Yoon.

And ofc we can't have the big companies pay more or earn less.

As for birth problems, that's something the president after Yoon can take care of, the good old kick the can down the road.
 

Quan8410

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19000 yuan is a joke, nowhere enough to raise a child. Raising a child cost a lot of resources and even slow career progress for both parents, especially in a city like Shenzhen for example. 190000 yuan is a more feasible number, and even so will be limited impact only. China will need to transform its social-economic and even spiritual condition to reverse the trend.
 

Stryker

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That's about $80 per month for 3 years
I don't think the reason for people not having kids is solely monetary. It's just the modern way of life with internet, gaming, social outings, flings, hectic work schedules etc. This I say from personal experience as a millennial in his mid twenties navigating through life. I'm sure, many other individuals not just in China but the rest of the developed world as well hold dear all these things alongside money. It may possibly work in rural areas which may not be as exposed to the modern way of life as the rest of us are, but going forward I just don't see a way for developed or urbanised countries to halt the population decline.
 

Ptah

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South Korean TFR falls to 0.79, which is probably the lowest in the world. If historical association is of any indication, China lags South Korea about ~5-10 years in terms of TFR. This is the future of the East Asia, if drastic steps are not taken to reverse the TFR decline. For comparison, North Korea TFR is 1.9, indicating that this is not as much about East Asian culture, as it is about the highly materialistic hybrid of East Asian and Western culture that prevails across much of East Asia.

This is a historic moment and opportunity. The near term fate of East Asia will be determined by the strength and courage of its leadership to explore alternate solutions, separate from the West's largely absurd proposals of feminism being the solution (because we all just know feminists would love to have more children, but for the patriarchy) or immigration being the solution (because getting third rate immigrants that the US doesn't want is an obvious recipe for success, I'm sure).

The price is high, but so is the reward.

Succeed, and the country in question will likely become the model for other East Asian countries, if not the developed world as a whole. Solving TFR and achieving sustainable growth is the holy grail of post-industrial economic leadership. If a government wants to show to the world that it's got the superior system, this is one way you do it.

Fail, and a long period of economic stagnation and decline awaits; for though automation and AI can provide a degree of relief, there is no fundamental advantage that East Asian economies enjoy beyond their superior talent base and forward planning. Robot factories and AI systems can be replicated else where, and they only address labor, not demand, therefore being vulnerable to economic nationalism from importing countries.

By contrast, demographic advantages other countries enjoy cannot be replicated in East Asia. If you don't have young people, you don't have young people, and it's young people who tend to take risks, create start ups, new business strategies, products, and inventions. AI might be able to help with many of these tasks, but they cannot replace the energy of human youths. We see a great example of this in the decline of Japan as a post-industrial power - they are just too old, too slow, to keep up with the pace of change in business and technology. China must not suffer the same fate.
The only way out is growing babies in artificial wombs....rear them like chicken or pigs.

The other way is like Japan and Italy which have this problem for years. A slow but controlled decline. I guess there remains two generations for these countries to enter into a cycle of poverty.

Until there is more houses than people, more jobs than workers. I think we will go into a pre industrialization state where population was at equilibrium for millennia
 

PeoplesPoster

Junior Member
Free and guaranteed access to day care, kindergarten, after school care, grade school and high school. Right now Chinese parents are paying out the wazoo for day care, kindergarten as well as after school care. And it's not even about money sometimes, a lot of these services are limited and there are huge queues to even qualify resulting in the need for bribes and connections to even get your kid into some of these programs.

Mandate that companies of a certain size provide in company day care, same with neighborhoods and large apartment developments.

Reduce the stress of childcare will go a long way towards improving birth rates.
 
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