So it seems I was slightly mistaken in the above post. According to a out today, the number of marriages in 2021 was actually 7.64 million, down from 8.14 million in 2020, or a 6.15% drop. Continuing the same 6.15% drop in 2022 would mean 7.17 million marriages. Anything above that is good; below that is bad. For the first three quarters of 2022, according to the SCMP, the number of marriages was 5.4 million. That is a rate of 1.8 million marriages per quarter. If we assume the same number of marriages in Q4, then we would get 1.8 x 4 = 7.2 million marriages for 2022. On the other hand, if the trend is that of declining marriages, the fourth quarter may come in a bit lower, which would put the final number at awfully close to 7.17 million exactly.Well, the fact that it's late November and there haven't been Twitter screenshots of Chinese-language tables with data from the Provinces of horrendous collapses in the birth rate for 2022, or dooming South China Morning Post headlines about the same, makes me cautiously optimistic that the drop in the number of births this year won't be as bad as last year.
Last year, the number of births dropped from 12 million to 10.62 million for a 11.5% drop. This year, China would have to have at least 9.4 million births to match the drop in the birth rate; below that is bad, above that is good, considering expectations and everything.
Additionally in 2020, the number of marriages dropped to 8.14 million from 9.27 million, or a 11.2% drop. That's similar to the 11.5% drop in births for 2021. In 2021, the number of marriages dropped to 7.6 million from 8.14 million, or a 6.6% drop. That would suggest 9.9 million births. If there was even close to that many births in 2022, it would count as good news.
Finally, there is the marriage data for 2022. If marriage is a leading indicator of births, then that is a critical number to project births for 2023. I fear for whether it has been affected by lockdowns and the slowdown in China's economy this year. A rate of 7.1 million marriages would represent a constant trajectory of decline (6.6% annually) based on 2021 numbers. Anything above that is good; below that is bad. A renewed acceleration in the decline of marriages would be very bad news.
That means the trend of declining marriages is neither accelerating or slowing, but that the rate is staying steady at a 6.15% decline per year.
The SCMP also mentioned a new statistic from the China Statistical Yearbook 2022, not previously widely reported, called "the number of individuals entering their first marriages" and claimed that it "is considered a better gauge among young adults and is more closely related to the birth rate" and that it stood at 11.58 million in 2021 and that was "half the rate" of 2013.
If you use the to calculate average annual decline, you come up with ((1/2)^(1/8)-1)*100, since only the fact that it halved in eight years is relevant; or -8.3%. An 8.3% decline from 11.58 million is 11.58 million x .917 = 10.62 million. So we would expect 10.62 million Chinese people to enter their first marriage in 2022. Anything above that is good; below that is bad. However, that is a rough estimate from the SCMP claiming that the number had halved since 2013.
If anyone has the actual table for this figure from the China Statistical Yearbook 2022, please post it here.
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