Re: China's DF-41
I really think that china's nuke force is just too insignificant to counter US. Chinese nuclear deterrence capability is just always couple of steps behind the US's offensive capabilities which basically render them ineffective. The triad of nuclear deterrence, being ICBMs SSBNs and bombers, there is not one in which China has either the sufficient numbers or the technology leap to make them effective means of deterrence.
take for example their yet to deploy DF-31/DF-31A, the most modern ICBM developed by china. Sure its a good system with high survivability, but it is simply not enough to counter the US. One reason because China won't have it in sufficient numbers in the comcing 10 years to beat the US missile shield. And when it does in like 15 to 20 years, the US would have developed effective means to track and destroy them in a preemptive strike (such tracking systems are already in the make).
Now look at the SSBNs, these systems are even more flawed as already pointed out in previous posts: they are vulerable to US hunter killers because China wouldn't have the means to protect them in case of a crisis.
So based on all these, I can only come to my conclusion that China does not and will not (in the foreseeable future) possess a credible nuke force capable of detering the US...
Nobody know how many missile and nuclear warhead China posses plus the ABM is imperfect system that rush into operations It is imperfect system at best We do know that China has vigorous missile program Anybody who underestimate Chinese capability will do so at their their own peril here is the latest article from Aviation Week
China Accelerates Missile Tests, Reports AVIATION WEEK
WASHINGTON, April 6 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Secret new U. S. intelligence about China proves the Chinese are accelerating the test of new medium and long range ballistic missiles, reports AVIATION WEEK, which broke the story on its website, AviationWeek.com, today. The complete story will appear in the April 9 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology (AW&ST).
In the story, AVIATION WEEK also reports that China is demonstrating a wide range of new tactics with those missiles. The new Chinese missile development could affect Taiwan and U. S. strategy toward China, especially if China were ever to attack Taiwan. The Chinese tests indicate that China is gaining a much more powerful ability to militarily deter the U.S. or attack U.S. soil or assets such as aircraft carriers at sea.
Much of this information comes from several U.S. Air Force Defense Support Program (DSP) missile warning spacecraft watching China from geostationary orbit, 22,300 miles above the Earth. The April 9 issue of AW&ST will carry an exclusive report about how the DSP constellation of missile warning satellites monitors not only China, but also Iran, North Korea and other countries. The same spacecraft are also seeing a similar acceleration of Iranian ballistic missile test activity.
The story quotes Dr. Edward Tagliaferri, a longtime independent consultant to the Air Force and Northrop Grumman on use of the spacecraft, as saying, "Both the Chinese and Iranians have very vigorous test programs. The number of (ballistic missile launch) events we are seeing with DSP are increasing."
"China's missile testing is surpassing anything since the Soviet Union's missile buildup of the 1960s," John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org, says in the Aviation Week report. "It is as if China was in near war-time production of missiles ... in what amounts to the largest missile production and test rate seen since the Cold War with the Soviet Union," Pike says.
Craig Covault, overall Senior Editor for AW&ST, reported the story. Covault has written about 3,000 major articles on space and aeronautics during 34 years at the publication, including extensive reporting on national security space issues. Covault has filed stories from 20 countries and written extensively from Europe, Russia, and Japan. He also has extensive experience across China covering Chinese space and aeronautics. He is a pilot and has flown about 20 major military aircraft including numerous bomber, high performance fighter and command and control aircraft. Covault served as AW&ST's Paris Bureau Chief from 1992-1996.
The China story is the third significant international defense story to break this year via AVIATION WEEK's newly redesigned website. The January 18 story "Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon" and January 25 story "Iran's Sputnik" were also reported by Covault.
Related link: AW&ST
)) as a healthy provocation sparking a controversial discussion in chinese expert circles. (so let the games begin!
