China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Quickie]

Playing down a threat could also serve the function of tricking the opponent into revealing what they really have for the reason they don't want their abilities to be underestimated too much. Historically though China doesn't respond much to this kind of report.

 

[balance]

Last year China report a massive missile firing of ICBM which can even observe from US shore and China side. In fact, it a show of China missile build up which is totally different from this report. It is very unusual for China to conduct such large scale missile test.

Even more funny is how this report claim JL-2 is not operation then why chairman xin jiping bother to make a headline visit to submarine fleet and step onboard Type094 SLBM? He go there for fun?

Hi Lion, can you give us the link to these two facts above? Thanks in advance.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Hi Lion, can you give us the link to these two facts above? Thanks in advance.

I believe this report is not accurate at all. They are the same year after year. I can understand that the intelligence community in US is at lost since they are completely shut off from knowing the extend of Chinese strategic weapon. No Humint at all and unless they have satellite that can peer thru 300 feet of solid rock .They have no basis at all to estimate the Chinese ballistic missile development. They themselves concede that China has the most active missile test ever.

We have been discussing this ad nauseum http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/str...-ballistic-missiles-nuclear-arms-33-5881.html

Another thing it is a bit odd when China are making progress thru all spectrum of weapon development. Yet this analyst want us to believe that China doesn't make progress at all in nuclear and missile development.

Second artillery is the most senior of all China services and the most favored one. They have the largest budget allocation and the best resources .Their importance was highlighted by the first military unit that were visited by Xi Jinping as soon as he took control of government. In which he said second artillery is the shield and spear of People Republic

It is also the most sophisticated one having uninterrupted development thru the history of of People Republic of China. Even during the cultural revolution ,they were shielded from turmoil to concentrate on the missile development

Now we know that JL 2 is finish with testing They have been tested over the years from 2001 and Last January they were supposed to have the final test before deployment which they did by firing in salve to simulate what would happened god forbid that China has to unleash the Armageddon. Here is the news even though it is from Free beacon but it was confirmed by Chinese sources as well

it could be as Quickie put it fishing expedition to induce China to reveal the extent of their nuclear and missile program

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) test fired a new submarine-launched ballistic missile on August 16, less than a month after it tested a new ballistic ground-mobile missile armed with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV), according to the Free Beacon.

The new JL-2 missile, which too can carry a MIRV warhead, was fired from one of two state-of-the-art Jin-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines already in operation by PLAN. The test missile test is reported to have been fired in Bohai Sea which lies between northeastern China and the Korean peninsula.

The test demonstrates the first submarine-launched “potential first strike” nuclear missile in China’s arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).

The submarine launch of the JL-2 comes on the heels of a July 24 test launch of the DF-41 road-mobile ICBM capable of delivering multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, or MIRVs, to anywhere in the US. Like the DF-41, the JL-2 is deemed capable of carrying MIRVs with up to 10 independently targetable nuclear warheads.

The test launch of the JL-2 is partially corroborated by an August 8 report on China’s Shenzhen TV that a Jin-class missile submarine had departed on a sea patrol equipped with JL-2 missiles. That was followed by an Aug. 13 warning notice by the Liaoning Province Maritime Safety Administration about military exercises to take place in the Bohai Strait on Aug. 16 and 17. Ships were warned to stay clear of the area.

Each Jin-class submarine is capable of carrying up to 12 JL-2 missiles. That would mean that three Jin-class submarines would be able to launch up to 36 JL-2 missiles carrying MIRV payloads. JL-2 missiles have an estimated range of 7,400 – 10,000 km (4,588 – 6,250 miles). Once China adds just one more of an estimated eight Jin-class submarines currently in construction or in planning stages, it would have the capability to target every US city with a population of over 50,000 with a sea-launched nuclear warhead.

Some observers have speculated that the coincidence of the JL-2 missile test and the heating up of the dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands suggests China may have conducted the test as a warning to Japan. However, military analysts doubt that to be the case because such missile tests are generally planned months in advance

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Xi Jinping calls for powerful missile force
(Xinhua)
08:32, December 06, 2012

BEIJING, Dec. 5 (Xinhua) -- The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been ordered to build a powerful and technological missile force by Xi Jinping, the newly elected chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Xi, also newly elected general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, made the comments on Wednesday while meeting delegates at the 8th Party congress of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)'s Second Artillery Force.

The artillery force is the core strength of China's strategic deterrence, the strategic support for the country's status as a major power, and an important cornerstone safeguarding national security, Xi said.

 

[rhino123]

You choose to believe so be it. But I am stating some obvious and some prelude which you choose to ignore. So be it. Do you see Chairman Xi vist Type035 Ming submarine or Song class diesel/electric sub? Why Ex chairman Hu Jintao only go for CV-16 Liaoning commission and not 056 Corvette? You have too know the significant of those visit to observe the operational readiness of Type 094 SLBM and if JL-2 is not operational. Why bother to build 3 of Type094?



I dont think you need an expert to tell you US having a defense cut. US need to prioritise what they need to work on. They cant spend like they used too. Oviously US choose to maintain a powerful USN navy fleet. Adding another expensive expansion of missile shield which gurantee no 100% proof against (if 1000) nuke warhead fire from China is not feasible..



US is possible to counter 200 warhead from China but 500 above mark will be impossible. Or you are trying to tell me 1 nuke warhead makes no difference from 50 nuke warhead? Yes, it makes hell lot of different in changing somebody strategic plan.



I am not defensve but the stated the obvious bull from the report. So you need a US report to tell what China military defense is? Hahaha... If US report says China has only mediaval fighter and no modern soldier. I bet you will agree too,right?

I did not say the report is right or wrong, however up till now, there is no indication of otherwise to the report that is presented by you in the form of a counter... rather... you have been most insulting, adding in the hahas, and coming out with assumption of things like Chairman Xi visiting a submarine, ex-Chairman Hu visiting the Liaoning carrier. Which basically can means anything.

Chairman Xi visited the submarine bases and step into a submarine amist the tension between China and Japan due to the Diaoyutai dispute to send a message to both Japan and US that China is serious in the protection of what China deemed is hers. It is as much a political move then anything else, rather you chose to believe the JL2 is operational... which is frankly logicless.

If you have proof like what Henrik had, and present the facts, then yeah, I would take it whole heartedly. But as such, you don't. Your only proof is Chairman Xi visiting the Type094, and so JL-2 must be operational or he won't do it, that is why i say, funny.

Plus... you sure the US could counter 200 warheads coming their way? Where you get that information? And how to you come up with the 500 figures?

BTW, I don't choose US report to tell me the Chinese military might (that is what you want others to think), I choose to read a real report, don't care whose. If you could present me with another reports to state the otherwise and is creditable, then yeah, I will discount this report. But obviously your assumption is bias as to how advance and great the Chinese military might was.

Also which part of the report is stated as obvious bull? Care to share and show references? Not just Chairman Xi visiting a submarine... because it don't count too much as whatever. And unless the good Chairman himself stated that JL-2 is operational, then his visit can be anything.

Finally, the US report can state that China only had medival soldiers and no modern soldier for all I care, but like I say, if there are no proof otherwise, then, yeah, there are no modern soldier at all (but obviously, there are heaps of record saying otherwise). So instead of coming in like a bull and start bashing everyone, come up with some credible source (in english, in Chinese, in whatever language you want), but some credible sources to proof someone's posted report as wrong.

(PS. After reading Hendrik_2000 post, I wholeheartedly accept what he had mentioned and JL-2 might indeed had been operational. And to Lion, that is how you do presentation, rather than coming in with childish retorts, the hahas, the sneering but no solid proof of stuff... duh.)

 

[duskylim]

Here is some surprises...

Air Force Intelligence Report Provides Snapshot of Nuclear Missiles

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Hmmm.... Interesting indeed.

Aren't these the same 'intelligence' people that were 100% sure that Iraq possessed "weapons of mass-destruction" including biological and chemical weapons and had a certain African-American general make a presentation in the U.N. to justify the actions of the 'coalition of the willing' who wanted to invade Iraq?

Just curious.

And of course they don't lie, cheat, steal, smoke or even drink.

 

[TyroneG]

US plays it down on the capability and number of China's nuke weapons because it foresee a possible limited conventional engagement with China. That's what it wants to see. It doesn't want any possible nuke exchange. It knows in conventional war it will win and the goal is to make China do what it wishes.

Also US doesn't want its allies to think China is too strong on nuke otherwise its allies might panic, so US only acknowledges CHina has only 250 to 300 warheads and no more.

 

[Broccoli]

I wonder if those 1992-1996 test were DF-31 RV tests or tests for more compact RV? If they were testing new more compact weapon, then it means that China's latest warhead has a yield of 90kt or so. Quite similar to what other P5 states have in their arsenal.

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Americans do not have problems to sacrifice warheads yield if it makes weapon more accurate and reliable (article about cancelled RRW).

The Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program’s WR1 design was intended to replace, not improve, the W76 , one of two warheads that arm the U.S. D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile and that will make up a significant portion, perhaps 40 percent, of the strategic nuclear weapons deployed by the United States once reductions under the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty are completed in 2012.

The W76 has a yield of approximately 100 kilotons, five times the size of the bomb that destroyed Nagasaki. The W76 entered the stockpile in 1979 at a time when the United States was increasing its military capabilities in response to the perception that the Soviet Union was seeking a capability to fight and win a nuclear war. It was meant to fix a perceived gap in the U.S. arsenal: Through the 1970s, the U.S. submarine force had little or no hard-target capability against Soviet missile silos. The relatively small and inaccurate warhead for the Poseidon was unable to hold Soviet hard targets at risk (see table 1 in the print edition of ACT).

Administration officials sold the WR1 as part of an effort to “relax” Cold War design constraints that placed a premium on keeping warheads light so many of them could be placed on a single missile. Yet by making the warhead heavier—it will have the same aerodynamic characteristics as the W88/MK5—the WR1 will also be more accurate than the W76/MK4. Military officials have testified that the WR1 will be slightly more accurate than the W76/MK4 to compensate for a small loss in yield. This is not surprising. A heavier warhead in the right packaging might have a higher ballistic coefficient, much as a rock drops straight down while a leaf drifts in the wind.

Initial calculations suggest that the heavier, more accurate WR1 may have a significantly greater capability against hard targets. As one can see in figure 1, I calculate that the W76 has a 43 percent chance (“single shot probability of kill”) of destroying a target capable of withstanding up to 5,000 pounds per square inch (psi). In contrast, the WR1 would have a 55 percent chance of destroying the same target, roughly equivalent to placing a 160 kiloton warhead in the less accurate MK4 re-entry vehicle. In other words, the effect of replacing the W76 with the WR1 for a 5,000 psi target is the same as increasing the yield of the W76 by 60 percent. By the same calculation, had the National Nuclear Security Administration lowered the yield of WR1 to 60 kilotons, it would still have performed equivalently to the W76 against 5,000 psi targets. These comparisons are illustrated by the “hypothetical warheads” in Table 1 (available in the print edition).

To be clear, increasing military capabilities was not the intent of the RRW program. The ability to destroy a 5,000 psi target is not the only measure of capability, and there are more efficient means to increase the hard-target kill capability, including improved fuses that are being integrated as part of the W76 Life Extension Program. Still, the result is unfortunate.

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[rhino123]

US plays it down on the capability and number of China's nuke weapons because it foresee a possible limited conventional engagement with China. That's what it wants to see. It doesn't want any possible nuke exchange. It knows in conventional war it will win and the goal is to make China do what it wishes.

Also US doesn't want its allies to think China is too strong on nuke otherwise its allies might panic, so US only acknowledges CHina has only 250 to 300 warheads and no more.

On the contrary, I really don't think the US played down on China's capability. In a sense, they actually step up a notch on the capability. Look at what the US implied... what they meant is that China had stepped up its effort and capability in short to medium range ballistic missiles. Although these have only single warheads, at current capability of China's neighbour (except for Russia), few would have the ability to defend against.

Thus it will bring some panic over to the neighbouring states (such as states in the South East Asia, Korea, Japan and heck... even Taiwan.) and they will gladly invite the US to come in and thus US could came in with all glory (like the saviour and not the tyrant that forces its presence in Asia), thus completing the re-emergence of US to Asia.

Secondly, some of the nations are not really wanting a US missile shield in their nation for fear of China's and Russia's reaction. However, with the current shown projection of China's effort in building a larger and more modern short to medium range missiles, many of which are nuclear capable and also the 'rogue' country's (North Korea) nuclear arsenal, they might finally give in and allowed or even beg for the missile shield to be in place, thus completing US coverage from Asia right up to her mainland.

And that will definitely gave US an edge in detection and knocking out of missiles and missiles swarms even before they reach US mainland.

 

[Lion]

On the contrary, I really don't think the US played down on China's capability. In a sense, they actually step up a notch on the capability. Look at what the US implied... what they meant is that China had stepped up its effort and capability in short to medium range ballistic missiles. Although these have only single warheads, at current capability of China's neighbour (except for Russia), few would have the ability to defend against.

Thus it will bring some panic over to the neighbouring states (such as states in the South East Asia, Korea, Japan and heck... even Taiwan.) and they will gladly invite the US to come in and thus US could came in with all glory (like the saviour and not the tyrant that forces its presence in Asia), thus completing the re-emergence of US to Asia.

Secondly, some of the nations are not really wanting a US missile shield in their nation for fear of China's and Russia's reaction. However, with the current shown projection of China's effort in building a larger and more modern short to medium range missiles, many of which are nuclear capable and also the 'rogue' country's (North Korea) nuclear arsenal, they might finally give in and allowed or even beg for the missile shield to be in place, thus completing US coverage from Asia right up to her mainland.

And that will definitely gave US an edge in detection and knocking out of missiles and missiles swarms even before they reach US mainland.

Isn't what you explain precisely what this distorted report try to create the effect? China neighbour are unsafe while US continent need not fear from China retaliation if USA enter war with China.....

All falls into US planning if people believe what US report about China nuke. Precisely, why US needs to come up with this crook report. Shall I thank you instead?

 

[LesAdieux]

nukes are deterrent weapon, the more you have or even more importantly, the more your adversaries Believe you have, the more secure you are.

China certainly has a problem with its deterrent weapons; it either doesn't have enough, or it hide them too well such that the world believes that China has very few nukes, either case, it puts the nation under grave danger, it may encourage a mad enemy to take the chance. China must set straight this problem immediately!

it's high time to stop the self-cheating, self-fooling so-called principle: "no first use, and keep absolutely minimum amount", NOBODY believes it and NOBODY gives a fuck for it.

the world believes in power!