China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[clockwork]

Anyone have sources on differences between the actual missile of the DF-31AG and DF-31A? While some claim it's the same (only TEL is different) I seem to recall some OSINT guy measuring the AG to be longer or something but can't find it now. Trying to determine if the AG can carry 3 MIRVs. I think it should be able to especially if the booster was lengthened and because it's heavier than the 36t MMIII which could carry

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warheads to everywhere but the southernmost USSR targets.
Not sure if

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is accurate either.

 

[Kalec]

Anyone have sources on differences between the actual missile of the DF-31AG and DF-31A? While some claim it's the same (only TEL is different) I seem to recall some OSINT guy measuring the AG to be longer or something but can't find it now. Trying to determine if the AG can carry 3 MIRVs. I think it should be able to especially if the booster was lengthened and because it's heavier than the 36t MMIII which could carry

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warheads to everywhere but the southernmost USSR targets.
Not sure if

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is accurate either.

No way 31 series can carry more than one warhead, and no idea whether China has a 350kt warhead either.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Would it help if China had direct access to the sea of Japan? Maybe they could strike a deal with Russia for a corridor and port south of Vladivostok.

I think Sea of Japan is too contested and negotiating with Russia is harder than just asking North Korea, a treaty ally, for help. But even that hasn't happened.

 

[bustead]

No way 31 series can carry more than one warhead, and no idea whether China has a 350kt warhead either.

I am pretty sure that the 575 warheads are only <200 kilos and the DF-31A has a throw weight of around 700kg. So it is possible to lob more than one warhead in a single DF-31A/AG. That again, the larger 535 warheads are 360-400kg in weight. So DF-31s may not be able to carry multiple 650 kt warheads.

 

[Kalec]

I am pretty sure that the 575 warheads are only <200 kilos and the DF-31A has a throw weight of around 700kg. So it is possible to lob more than one warhead in a single DF-31A/AG. That again, the larger 535 warheads are 360-400kg in weight. So DF-31s may not be able to carry multiple 650 kt warheads.

Not if you count the weight of PBV, which is usually more than 50% of throw weight when you have less RVs.

Also there is no point to keep 31. 41 with MIRVs and penetration aids greatly surpasses the effectiveness of 31, not to mention a possible heavies silo-based ICBM. 6+ RVs with many penetration can nullify any attempt of ABM interception. With the help of early warning system, heavy ICBM can ensure a credible MAD, which 31 cannot.

 

[sunnymaxi]

The only way for PLAN warships to transit between Vladivostok and the Yellow Sea is through the narrow Tsushima Strait, which can be easily cut off by the JMSDF and ROKN.

everyone is talking about yellow sea and east China sea. yeah water is too shallow to operate heavy submarines.

but what about Hainan island naval base. look at the map. if type 094 or type 096 operates from this base, these subs can easily go through Luzon strait and enter in open ocean for patrolling. correct me if i m wrong.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

View attachment 93123

everyone is talking about yellow sea and east China sea. yeah water is too shallow to operate heavy submarines.

but what about Hainan island naval base. look at the map. if type 094 or type 096 operates from this base, these subs can easily go through Luzon strait and enter in open ocean for patrolling. correct me if i m wrong.

Luzon strait, the strait flanked by US treaty ally Philippines, and Taiwan?

 

[bustead]

Also there is no point to keep 31. 41 with MIRVs and penetration aids greatly surpasses the effectiveness of 31, not to mention a possible heavies silo-based ICBM. 6+ RVs with many penetration can nullify any attempt of ABM interception. With the help of early warning system, heavy ICBM can ensure a credible MAD, which 31 cannot.

41 is a lot heavier than 31. Some bridges or roads may not be able to support that weight. I suspect that this is the reason why DF-31A/AG will still be in service for the next decade.
That again, I agree that 41 is a far superior missile and will eventually make up the core of the road mobile TEL force for China.

 

[tphuang]

Luzon strait, the strait flanked by US treaty ally Philippines, and Taiwan?

In any scenario where 094's safety is under concern, it will be in a conflict and Taiwan will most likely not have capability to threaten after initial hours. Philippines is unlikely to get involved and risk getting themselves bombed.

 

[ansy1968]

Luzon strait, the strait flanked by US treaty ally Philippines, and Taiwan?

@FairAndUnbiased bro in deference, MDT (Mutual Defense Treaty) will come to effect "IF Attack" and that attack means the 3 main island of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao that constitute the Philippine and need US congress concurrence. The SCS is not included and therefore the US had no jurisdiction to involve themselves in the dispute using OUR NAME. Regarding the strait, its a source of irritant between Taiwan and the Philippines than the Chinese. Sorry for deviating.

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May 10, 2013 — MANILA–The Philippine Navy on Friday denied allegations that its forces had shot dead a crewman of a Taiwan fishing vessel, saying none of ...

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  May 10, 2013 — In 2006, a Taiwanese fishing boat skipper was shot dead off the northern Philippines. Taipei protested then to the Philippines over what it said ...

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May 10, 2013 — Philippine authorities admitted that one of their coast guard ships opened fire Thursday on the victim's Taiwanese vessel, but said they had ...