China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[plawolf]

I don't advocate using tactical nuclear weapons in the way you described. The entirety of my position can be summed up in one word: symmetry. If America attacks China with tactical nuclear weapons, China attacks America (as in the American homeland) with tactical nuclear weapons. I've even advocated attacking the US homeland with tactical nuclear weapons in response to conventional strikes on the Chinese homeland. America attacks a Chinese shipyard, China deletes an American shipyard.

Also, the problem with the USSR wasn't that it was sought to match American capabilities, the problem was that it had a crippled economy.

I don't see how China improving its tactical nukes can weaken its position - building up capabilities can never weaken a position, that's just a matter of logic. At worst it's a complete waste. I will never be convinced that China having rungs missing on its escalation ladder is a net positive.

When it comes to nukes, the only appropriate response is massively disproportionate overreaction. Symmetry be fucked.

This is how the US ensures no one targets CONUS with nukes, even tactical ones, and that should also be China’s policy to delete any American neocon delusions about tactical nukes being an option.

The first step the US will take on the nuclear escalation ladder would be an at sea use, targeting Chinese naval forces and/or its SCS island bases. If it does that, China’s response need to be grossly and excessively disproportionate in both scale and scope and burn the Americans and their vassals so badly that there can be zero room for doubt that any nuclear strike on Chinese soil, which includes Taiwan, will equal MAD. Otherwise the next tactical nuke is going to land on the PLA beachhead on Taiwan.

The problem is that America has the same disproportionate response policy with regards to any nuclear strike on CONUS, so all the fantasies about tactical nukes deleting things like LockMart, Baths shipyards or other CONUS targets is just that. As soon as the first mushroom cloud goes up anywhere on CONUS, we are on an express train to MAD.

That is why the best and only way to put a hard stop to nuclear escalation once America used its first tactical nuke is to use strategic ones to delete a major island. Maybe also pine gap since the Australians are so keen to play at the top table.

Anything else will see ever more tactical nuke strikes from the US until both sides are too invested to back down and then it’s MAD.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

When it comes to nukes, the only appropriate response is massively disproportionate overreaction. Symmetry be fucked.

This is how the US ensures no one targets CONUS with nukes, even tactical ones, and that should also be China’s policy to delete any American neocon delusions about tactical nukes being an option.

The first step the US will take on the nuclear escalation ladder would be an at sea use, targeting Chinese naval forces and/or its SCS island bases. If it does that, China’s response need to be grossly and excessively disproportionate in both scale and scope and burn the Americans and their vassals so badly that there can be zero room for doubt that any nuclear strike on Chinese soil, which includes Taiwan, will equal MAD. Otherwise the next tactical nuke is going to land on the PLA beachhead on Taiwan.

The problem is that America has the same disproportionate response policy with regards to any nuclear strike on CONUS, so all the fantasies about tactical nukes deleting things like LockMart, Baths shipyards or other CONUS targets is just that. As soon as the first mushroom cloud goes up anywhere on CONUS, we are on an express train to MAD.

That is why the best and only way to put a hard stop to nuclear escalation once America used its first tactical nuke is to use strategic ones to delete a major island. Maybe also pine gap since the Australians are so keen to play at the top table.

Anything else will see ever more tactical nuke strikes from the US until both sides are too invested to back down and then it’s MAD.

It's clear we have irreconcilably different views about the psychology of nuclear weapons use and what enemy responses will be. Whatever the truth of the matter might be, it does nothing to alter the necessity of China maintaining a large nuclear arsenal of both tactical and strategic weapons and the technological means to execute any mission with them.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It's not racism, it's because the people planning Chinese strategic deterrence policy are morons/freeloaders off the Soviet/Russian strategic deterrent.

If Russia did not exist, the US would have already first striked the PRC long ago. The core of the matter is that the PRC deterrent is not survivable against a US first strike without basically implicitly relying on the Russians as their second strike.

Why did they fear the Soviets? Because the Russians could end all of western civilization for all time ten times over and still have more nukes to blast everyone else.

This is factually untrue. Russian deterrence was far less survivable until 1974 with the deployment of Delta submarines and R-29s.

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in the best case scenario; otherwise they only had single digit R-7s which took equal time to fuel.

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(1)

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and

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. Russia couldn't deliver their weapons except with MRBMs on western Europe.

Even with a literal 100:1 advantage they didn't risk it.

 

[r41]

China will not necessarily use nukes as weapons of mass destruction in the future, now that a critical mass has been reached, future progress (DF17 etc ) could be used only to divert attention

biological warfare (we have seen an extreme light version with Corona) plus nanobots

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could easily wipe out the whole planet in not a long-distance future more swiftly than a DF41

very soon they will lead the world in AI, CCCP set 2030 as the overtake year

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[9dashline]

China will not necessarily use nukes as weapons of mass destruction in the future, now that a critical mass has been reached, future progress (DF17 etc ) could be used only to divert attention

biological warfare (we have seen an extreme light version with Corona) plus nanobots

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could easily wipe out the whole planet in not a long-distance future more swiftly than a DF41

very soon they will lead the world in AI, CCCP set 2030 as the overtake year

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Covid, even if it was a weapon, certaintly wouldnt be faster than DF41 with delivery time of 30 minutes...

Two years into this pandemic, only thing covid has done is created artificial demand destruction while masking the true symptom of hyperinflation due to money's loss of purchasing power as global primary energy resources continue to slide down the slope of deminishing EROEI

 

[r41]

yes but this is just an initial primitive experiment, AI will maybe (it is all hypothetical still is becoming a concern) implement far more sophisticated and difficult-to-detect ways with nanobots...when it will be detected it will be too late...

among the 56 millions american indians massacred by European colonizers (whose descendants are today the North American citizens )

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biological warfare had its place...https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/native-americans-colonial-america/

 

[Deino]

Guys ... this is a military thread! Political discussion - especially in the way it is discussed here and even more in that tone is forbidden, so either you stop it o I'll close and clean that thread and some will get an instant vacation until 2022!

 

[bustead]

I've said it before, I'll say it again. You use tactical nukes against the most valuable targets - American military production.

Imagine if tactical nukes destroy America's F-35 factories and nuclear submarine shipyards.

Stopping F-35 production is of enormous value. Think about it - the enemy can no longer produce effective aircraft. Military, it's hard to think of anything more important.

Conventional strikes can achieve most likely achieve the same effect. USAF plant 4 (the F-35 assembly plant in Fort Worth) is not underground or heavily reinforced. Conventional munitions can easily collapse the structure.

That being said, it is a great target for tactical nukes. Another target that I can think of are launch pads for US space force. Just to disrupt their space operations.

 

[bustead]

Just how do you actually expect tactical nukes to be used? Because I can assure you it won’t be en mass as that will almost inevitably lead immediately to full MAD. Similarly, responding to a US nuke attack against PLA forces outside of mainland China with an ICBM against CONUS is stupid even if only armed with tactical nukes as that is also almost inevitable to lead to immediate full MAD.

If America psychs itself up to dare to use tactical nukes, it will do so with a single one first to see how China responds, and its target will not be mainland China. Probably targeting a PLAN fleet or its beachhead on Taiwan.

If China response with a meek tactical nuke of its own, then its game on as far as the Americans are concerned. But if China response by erasing Okinawa and/or Guam with a multi-megaton city-killer, you think the Americans are going to double down for full MAD? I don’t think so.

Partially agree. The current American nuclear doctrine calls for a gradual escalation and flexible response. So the prime target is something like a Chinese carrier or a small surface fleet. However, I think by then Guam/Okinawa will be destroyed by conventional missiles already so nuking them will not make that much of a difference. I'd rather nuke military installations in Alaska.

 

[Ringsword]

This is factually untrue. Russian deterrence was far less survivable until 1974 with the deployment of Delta submarines and R-29s.

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in the best case scenario; otherwise they only had single digit R-7s which took equal time to fuel.

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(1)

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and

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. Russia couldn't deliver their weapons except with MRBMs on western Europe.

Even with a literal 100:1 advantage they didn't risk it.

All of you guys have very pertinent points with good and viable concepts and hypotheses(Gee I wonder if this is what they do at the "think tanks" like Rand Corporation/Institute?-bet the food/drink is a little better!!)However the salient point is that China IS a RISEN power -indeed a pacing competitor and America does not slug it out with someone who CAN incinerate CONUS whether 3 times or 10 times(MAD-MAD-MAD).And hence USA wants a future arms treaty eliminating the "Global threat of hypersonic weapons"(unless they are American guaranteeing peace,prosperity and democracy of course.