China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Suetham]

Just look at the Iranian anti-ship ballistic missiles. They basically have a seeker on the warhead which tracks the target for terminal guidance. Sure that's at way lower terminal speeds but I wouldn't be surprised if something similar was doable. Also I read a couple of NASA papers a couple of years back about communications with reentry vehicles. For one the reentry plasma is mostly focused on the nosecone of the reentry vehicle, so you can communicate a lot better with satellites in orbit via an antenna on the back of the reentry vehicle than with ground stations. For another there seems to be a radio frequency window which is mostly transparent to the plasma field. If you transmit in that frequency range you can still get communications to and from the reentry vehicle just fine. So the plasma isn't nearly as impenetrable as once thought to be.

I don't know how the Iranians acquire the target, but in order to have a terminal orientation, you must necessarily have a MaRV.

With regards to methods other than satellites for tracking ships, the Chinese already have drones to do this like Soar Dragon. In 2019 one supposedly tailed the Ticonderoga-class cruiser "USS Antietam" in the Taiwan Strait.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. China has external actuators for targeting targets such as the Soar Dragon, it necessarily needs these assets to obtain confirmation of the target before launching the ballistic missile. A satellite cannot obtain to be a target acquisition platform as well as OTH radars, the ideal solution adopted is precisely UAVs and I know that China is advancing in this field.

However, what I say is that before these vectors were operational, how did the DF-21D achieve the target's accuracy with an incomplete satellite constellation it held and without these external actuators?

Don't get me wrong. China is really doing something incredible in Asia with A2 / AD capable of denying an area for a CSG and is starting to "push" out of the First Chain of Islands, but this architecture is not yet completely complete and I do not imagine that China manages to hit a moving target 1,500 km away. This is changing with the incredible Chinese development that I follow through this website, Soar Dragon itself is an incredible platform for what I am arguing, but that development is not yet capable of overcoming the challenges presented in the western Pacific.

 

[escobar]

if usa deploy intermediate range weapons in asia against china, china will deploy their in south and central america? In places like venezuela and cuba for example?

CN gov lack this kind of boldness

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

I am not being prejudiced, I just want to ask my opinion and understand how China can conclude that it can hit a CVN hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away, even with all the difficulties of a dedicated ASBM architecture. My arguments are totally focused on the technical issues of the formation of the A2 / AD of China.

First fact: For me, it doesn't matter if the Chinese are going to implement a system that works or not, I just want to understand how it would work and address technical issues without taking the merits of either party.

Second fact: The Chinese implementing the system showing that they have confidence does not tell me much or almost nothing or absolutely nothing.

Third fact: You showed the take-off of an airplane, now you cannot show me a satellite continuously accompanying a ship, and the only satellite image that I saw in previous comments was that of a CVN docking at the port.

Fourth fact: If a satellite constellation has a limited time on the target and cannot provide continuous data on a target, that constellation cannot act as target designators, a triggering solution cannot be effective based fundamentally on a network of satellites, this ASBM architecture needs external actuators like UAVs - if I'm not mistaken China is implementing these assets that may have a role in the acquisition of the target, although this may demonstrate that the ASBM system is still under construction and cannot act on its fullness due to the deficiency in external vectors. Satellites are a good starting point to ascertain a pre-designated area, but are unable to track real-time reconnaissance aircraft, surface vessels, drones, submarines and a network of maritime surveillance sensors.

Fifth fact: I have been following the Forum for about 1 year, I have read practically all the previous conversations, and all its arguments have not convinced me yet.

Sixth fact: In his later comment the following is written in bold: "We see that coverage is almost constant, with the longest interruption lasting around 30 minutes, and most interruptions lasting 10 minutes every half hour."

Do you really think this is enough to make it act as a target designator for a DF-21D during the journey to ballistic re-entry?

If you really believe that, I can consider you a very optimistic person, but that doesn't make me a pessimist.

No one cares what you're thinking. This discussion has been over and over on different threads. You don't have to talk about countermeasure because it is obvious.

So you can deal with it that variant of DF-26 can hit the ship as well as DF-21D, but also it may not if the enemy has enough resources to make DF-26/DF-21D miss or shoot it down.

And ASBMs are a bonus, which is nice because they complicate the defense of the enemy vessel against swarm attacks of different missiles. It's not some uber weapon. Airpower is and will remain the primary strike capability of the PLA against enemy vessels.

 

[ougoah]

I don't know how the Iranians acquire the target, but in order to have a terminal orientation, you must necessarily have a MaRV.



That's exactly what I'm talking about. China has external actuators for targeting targets such as the Soar Dragon, it necessarily needs these assets to obtain confirmation of the target before launching the ballistic missile. A satellite cannot obtain to be a target acquisition platform as well as OTH radars, the ideal solution adopted is precisely UAVs and I know that China is advancing in this field.

However, what I say is that before these vectors were operational, how did the DF-21D achieve the target's accuracy with an incomplete satellite constellation it held and without these external actuators?

Don't get me wrong. China is really doing something incredible in Asia with A2 / AD capable of denying an area for a CSG and is starting to "push" out of the First Chain of Islands, but this architecture is not yet completely complete and I do not imagine that China manages to hit a moving target 1,500 km away. This is changing with the incredible Chinese development that I follow through this website, Soar Dragon itself is an incredible platform for what I am arguing, but that development is not yet capable of overcoming the challenges presented in the western Pacific.

Soar Dragon and AShBM are old hat. AShBM was announced when I started getting into this military watching hobby. Back then it might've been only concepts and limited land target tests but to even consider such a thing, they would have very promising targeting methods already by 2010 era.

Assassin's Mace was talked about back then (referring to AShBM of course) and these newer ones are just what's been revealed. They work with satellites and drones like WZ-8 and Soar Dragon. They may have some yet undisclosed navigation and guidance. MaRV are required ideally for fast moving targets but "conventional" warheads can also be made MaRVed for cheaper surely. Within the atmosphere they can make use of control surfaces. They have guidance that's for sure. What about compressed gas nozzles for steering? Who knows it doesn't even matter. If they can do HGVs with so much ease now, they can make a traditional conical warhead maneuverable inside and out of the atmosphere. Guidance is harder but they clearly have it right? That much is obvious.

What constitutes "complete satellite constellation"? They surely had enough to make the weapon workable at its initial introduction and probably had it during development and testing. What would suggest the architecture is not yet complete? When have they ever shown something that's not complete? It's been over 10 years since the weapon platform was publicly leaked. If that was the case back then, it isn't now. Besides it's probably not a binary completion thing but an improvement over time.

 

[Suetham]

Soar Dragon and AShBM are old hat. AShBM was announced when I started getting into this military watching hobby. Back then it might've been only concepts and limited land target tests but to even consider such a thing, they would have very promising targeting methods already by 2010 era.

Assassin's Mace was talked about back then (referring to AShBM of course) and these newer ones are just what's been revealed. They work with satellites and drones like WZ-8 and Soar Dragon. They may have some yet undisclosed navigation and guidance. MaRV are required ideally for fast moving targets but "conventional" warheads can also be made MaRVed for cheaper surely. Within the atmosphere they can make use of control surfaces. They have guidance that's for sure. What about compressed gas nozzles for steering? Who knows it doesn't even matter. If they can do HGVs with so much ease now, they can make a traditional conical warhead maneuverable inside and out of the atmosphere. Guidance is harder but they clearly have it right? That much is obvious.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles and intermediate range even without MaRVs can be very accurate, some reaching 50 meters, but because they have a “post boost” which is a propelled stage that puts the ballistic reentry vehicle in the exact position to have a very accurate big. Short- and medium-range missiles (up to 3000 km) do not adopt this type of stage and depend entirely on a MaRV for accuracy, otherwise the accuracy is very poor.

A minority of these Chinese missiles are equipped with MaRVs (maneuverable reentry vehicle) and none yet with HGV (hypersonic glider vehicle). That is, most have very poor accuracy, which removes much of its real value. That is changing, but it turns out that at present the Chinese cannot get the best out of their ASBM devices.

Not all warheads can be implemented with MaRVs. The internal volume and mass of a MaRV available for the actual payload (explosives) are significantly reduced by additional indispensable equipment (guidance system, steering elements, energy sources, perhaps also fuel sensors), among other things. An example would be the DF-11, that missile cannot have the space needed to load MaRV, as this would exclude space for other essential things in the operation of the missile.

A ballistic missile with a range of 1000 km with a conventional RV (reentry vehicle) can only adjust its accuracy in the thrust phase, with the engines running. It does not have an altitude control system in space capable of refining the accuracy of its warhead. It only ejects it when the propellant runs out and the rocket engine shuts down. At most it corrects its trajectory based on the inertial system and GPS while burning fuel. This type of action is impossible to provide great precision to a ballistic warhead that will suffer the consequences of passing through the atmosphere, which will result in a departure from the expected point of impact and so that there is no correction.

There are two ways for a ballistic missile to re-enter the atmosphere: ejecting a reentry vehicle or the missile being a single body. If it is a reentry vehicle (RV) it cannot have terminal orientation because it does not have actuators that can interact with the atmosphere and make it change direction, unless it is a MaRV.

If it is single-body it can change direction with the help of fins that would work throughout the flight.

There is no way for a ballistic missile to have a terminal guidance system other than a MaRV, and it cannot be applied to a traditional warhead. It can even have a post boost and refine the accuracy, but then it would be inertial / GPS or equivalent, but not a terminal orientation with a radar on the nose of the warhead.

What constitutes "complete satellite constellation"? They surely had enough to make the weapon workable at its initial introduction and probably had it during development and testing. What would suggest the architecture is not yet complete? When have they ever shown something that's not complete? It's been over 10 years since the weapon platform was publicly leaked. If that was the case back then, it isn't now. Besides it's probably not a binary completion thing but an improvement over time.

As for the satellite constellation, Hendrick responded to my comment by stating about the use of Yaogan-30 for the designation of a moving target as a CVN, and the task was only completed last year. And the previous years? Didn't I have the ability to track a ship in the South China Sea?

 

[escobar]

My best optimistic estimate of China nuclear warheads
DF-5B : 18x5=90
DF-31A/G : 84x1=84
DF-41 : 24x3=72
JL-2 : 48x1=48
DF-26 : 180x1=180
ALBM : 20x1=20
Total: 494

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Yes. For use against fixed targets it is essential, however, for use against moving targets it is not an ideal platform for accurate accuracy.

You don't seem to know what you're talking about.

Now you are the one that does not know what you are talking GPS work by triangulation of known satellite position . The GPS in your car has transponder that receive those signal and your car is moving and not fixed all along it know the location of your car. Now change car to missile seeker

 

[styx]

CN gov lack this kind of boldness

i think since the way they have responded to us media assaults that they can deploy non nuclear hypersonic weapons in western emisphere in tit for tat retaliation if usa do the same thing in asia

 

[Suetham]

Now you are the one that does not know what you are talking GPS work by triangulation of known satellite position . The GPS in your car has transponder that receive those signal and your car is moving and not fixed all along it know the location of your car. Now change car to missile seeker

The GPS system does not work with a triangulation shape, but they resort to a geometric trilateration process, this is an error commonly identified in several sources.

Second, a car will obviously have a GPS signal receiving system, where you can locate the car's position with accurate accuracy.

Will a Chinese warship accept a signal from an enemy GPS satellite? In fact, not even these ships are connected to a GPS antenna. The Chinese own Beidou.

What you said doesn't make any sense.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The GPS system does not work with a triangulation shape, but they resort to a geometric trilateration process, this is an error commonly identified in several sources.

Second, a car will obviously have a GPS signal receiving system, where you can locate the car's position with accurate accuracy.

Will a Chinese warship accept a signal from an enemy GPS satellite? In fact, not even these ships are connected to a GPS antenna. The Chinese own Beidou.

What you said doesn't make any sense.

I just want to refute your assertion that satellite cannot locate a moving target(car) which certainly it can. Because Yaogan is not complete does not mean that it cannot find a target. What it mean is that the coverage is limited to say western pacific . But they keep sending satellite and the persistency and coverage depend on the number of satellite the more satellite mean you have the wider the coverage and more latency.

They still send Yaogan series satellite the last one yesterday

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It use triangulation method to locate the target

As usual, Chinese media refer to the new satellites as being used “for electromagnetic
environment surveys and other related technology tests,” and the mission is similar to the Yaogan-31 Group 01, Group 02, and Group 03 launched on April 10, 2018 and January 29 and February 24, 2021.

This designation of the Yaogan Weixing series is used to hide the true military nature of the satellites. In this case, the three satellites are orbited in a flying formation like a type of NOSS (Naval Ocean Surveillance System, considered as the Jianbing-8 military series.

Designed for locating and tracking foreign warships, the satellites will collect optical and radio electronic signatures of the maritime vessels as well as other information valuable for the Chinese maritime forces.

This satellite arrangement determines the location of radio and radar transmitters using triangulation and can identify naval units by analyzing the operating frequencies and transmission patterns detected.