China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

And what is your guesstimate? Nothing, Nil.

Yes I don't know and I don't profess to know. The Chinese themselves never disclose so how should I know

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

But DoD is not an open-source report?

 

[escobar]

But DoD is not an open-source report?

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[Suetham]

DF-16 erguido:

View attachment 69730

Esta variante é para fins anti-navio:

View attachment 69731

Does the DF-16 use a terminal guidance system?

A missile like the DF-16 that does not contain a PBV (Post boost vehicle) or MaRV cannot have such high accuracy. And we know that the DF-16 does not use PBV or MaRV.

 

[escobar]

Fourth DF-17 brigade operational : 614, 616, 627 and 655.
DF-17 missile being rolled out quickly.

 

[Appix]

Fourth DF-17 brigade operational : 614, 616, 627 and 655.
DF-17 missile being rolled out quickly.

Do you have a source?

 

[escobar]

Guesstimate nothing more than that The Chinese know which satellite flying above them and they can move their launcher from factory when there is no satellite above them as easy as that.

Tracking DF-31AG TEL production with open source imagery

We start to see DF-31AG TELs appear at Tai’an on 10/17/19 when two TELs are visible. On 11/03/19, three TELs are visible. On 11/10/19, four TELs are visible. Finally, on 03/14/20, ten TELs are visible. As DF-31AG brigades have twelve TELs per brigade, the brigade was almost done by March. This is an important find that allows us to estimate the rate of production of DF-31AG launchers at Tai'an. Given the rate of construction we see at Tai’an, it appears it takes around twenty days to complete a single DF-31AG launcher. If production occurs at this steady rate, it takes Tai’an Special Vehicle around eight to nine months to complete a single brigade’s worth of DF-31AGs. Adding this brigade to the number of launchers already deployed puts the number of DF-31AG launchers at 48 or more, as three brigades worth of DF-31AGs are already deployed at Tianshui (643), Shaoyang (632), and Luoyang (664). This will be the fourth brigade.

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[Hendrik_2000]

Tracking DF-31AG TEL production with open source imagery
View attachment 69791

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Look at the proportion of factory and the TEL The factory is just huge I just don't understand why they have to store is outside It is TEL production and not the rocket itself So the author assume that there is must be 1 to 1 correlation between production of TEL and rocket which is big assumption

 

[escobar]

Look at the proportion of factory and the TEL The factory is just huge I just don't understand why they have to store is outside It is TEL production and not the rocket itself So the author assume that there is must be 1 to 1 correlation between production of TEL and rocket which is big assumption

The author never assume that because we already know there are more missile than TEL in PLARF brigades; some launcher have one reload. Your pessimism about the ability of the DoD to monitor China strategic assets is the opposite of your optimism on China capacity for tactical space surveillance. It's intellectual dishonesty

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The author never assume that because we already know there are more missile than TEL in PLARF brigades; some launcher have one reload. Your pessimism about the ability of the DoD to monitor China strategic assets is the opposite of your

No DoD report is based on open source material which is normally generated by organization like FAS who has agenda to drive which is nuclear disarmament and China is their poster boy because China never disclose their nuclear stockpile so they can generate all kind of BS like saying China has only 300 warhead for DECADES.

imagine we know Chinese conventional forces goes by leap and bound and China defense budget balloon from low 20 billion to 200 billion dollar now And yet china nuclear stockpile stay at 300 for 30 years Does not make sense since the all the war monger threatening China with nuclear annihilation .
When we know there is no constraint whatsoever for China to increase their stockpile be it material, finance or technology Or motivation

They do have intelligence report for for internal consumption only and not for public

All those number that they they throw in is only gross and unreliable estimate

China ASBM surveillance is robust and use multiple sensor and it has been demonstrated successfully with last year test. It does not need 365 day 24X7surveillant All it need is to detect where is the CBG know their approximate location and get update send it to the missile and the system on board will take care. Since it is ocean there is no place to hide. Completely different thing from estimating number of warhead base on park component in factory parking lot! With too many assumption and guess work