China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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kroko

Senior Member
Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

On military matters it is unknown, but they're giving such a concise and detailed (for PLA) info for the supposed missile that there's little reason to doubt it's authenticity.

What you say doesnt make sense. Just because it is concise and detailed doesnt mean its true. I dont know about you, but i wont believe anything coming out of china that doesnt already have at least some good track record of reliability

Besides it would make sense for a new generation of SRBM and IRBM to be developed and to take advantage of massive advances since the likes of late model DF-21 and DF-15. MaRV/MiRV, new guidance and teminal guidance, evasive maneuvers, decoys, and of course greater range are all attributes that could be improved upon in a new generation of missiles.

DF-21C isnt that old. It should already incorporate most of modern tech in this area. Again i ask, why the need for a 4000km range ??
 

Blitzo

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Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

What you say doesnt make sense. Just because it is concise and detailed doesnt mean its true. I dont know about you, but i wont believe anything coming out of china that doesnt already have at least some good track record of reliability

Alright, your choice.
While chinese media do have a tendency to misreport, it's hard to misreport so much, from a ballistic missile having 4000 km range, that it's underdevelopment and meant to enter service around

DF-21C isnt that old. It should already incorporate most of modern tech in this area. Again i ask, why the need for a 4000km range ??

First I'll ask, why shouldn't there be a need? Why did the US have ATF when their F-15s were good enough against the masses of soviet third gen fighters and few flankers and fulcrums? Why is Russia developing S-400 when S-300PMU2 is one of the best air defense systems around?
The same answer to these can be reformatted to answer your question.

As for what the benefits "weapon-wise" (excuse me it's early morning for me); greater range, means you can have TELs further inland (and thus safer) while having similar reach to existing IRBMs stationed closer to coast or simply you can have a greater reach altogether (US air bases anyone?). New technologies like better guidance/terminal guidance, MaRV or even MiRV, evasive maneuvers that older generation missiles do not feature, etc etc. All this has benefits for AShBM too of course.
Really I'd be surprised if they weren't developing a new generation IRBM.
 

kroko

Senior Member
Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

Alright, your choice.
While chinese media do have a tendency to misreport, it's hard to misreport so much, from a ballistic missile having 4000 km range, that it's underdevelopment and meant to enter service around

The logical choise. Anyone can make a page of news report and call it accurate. Taking into account PLA secrecy ( specially its ballistic missiles) and scarcy of reliable sources about PLA, i will only believe in sources with a decent track record. Otherwise, i take it with a grain of salt.

First I'll ask, why shouldn't there be a need? Why did the US have ATF when their F-15s were good enough against the masses of soviet third gen fighters and few flankers and fulcrums? Why is Russia developing S-400 when S-300PMU2 is one of the best air defense systems around?
The same answer to these can be reformatted to answer your question.

As for what the benefits "weapon-wise" (excuse me it's early morning for me); greater range, means you can have TELs further inland (and thus safer) while having similar reach to existing IRBMs stationed closer to coast or simply you can have a greater reach altogether (US air bases anyone?). New technologies like better guidance/terminal guidance, MaRV or even MiRV, evasive maneuvers that older generation missiles do not feature, etc etc. All this has benefits for AShBM too of course.
Really I'd be surprised if they weren't developing a new generation IRBM.

my only issue is the range. And long range BM are different because they are single use weapons, and very expensive to develop, build and maintain. Its just not cost-effective to target an enemy airfield with 4000 km conventional missiles. Even if it hits, the runway gets repaired more or less quickly, and the attacker just scored a big loss at its accounting sheet.

AsBM is another story. But remember that the farther from the target you fire, the more chance/time your target has to evade/destroy your missile.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
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Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

The logical choise. Anyone can make a page of news report and call it accurate. Taking into account PLA secrecy ( specially its ballistic missiles) and scarcy of reliable sources about PLA, i will only believe in sources with a decent track record. Otherwise, i take it with a grain of salt.

Really you should take everything with a grain of salt, but in this case it is something you should at least take.

my only issue is the range. And long range BM are different because they are single use weapons, and very expensive to develop, build and maintain. Its just not cost-effective to target an enemy airfield with 4000 km conventional missiles. Even if it hits, the runway gets repaired more or less quickly, and the attacker just scored a big loss at its accounting sheet.

Clearly IRBM isn't the only way to target airfields and bases... but it provides a fast reaction, hard to defend against weapon which strike aircraft and cruise missiles may have longer or more difficult to target.

Besides what you described is what the DF-21C is, a precision guided IRBM with conventional warheads targeting bases. The new weapon apart from having longer range will likely feature new technologies to improve survivability, payload/warhead, guidance etc, so it's a natural evolution of what DF-21C already offers.

AsBM is another story. But remember that the farther from the target you fire, the more chance/time your target has to evade/destroy your missile.

Evade? Making high speed turns when the missile launches doesn't exactly mean the missile will miss or anything... it's only in the terminal stage where turns may cause it to miss (leading to warhead questions etc). But sure a longer range inherently means it can be detected longer.
IT also means the weapon has longer range and lengthens the threat range which the otherside has to keep out of...
 

escobar

Brigadier
Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

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KxQiA.jpg

Road-mobile DF-31/31A ICBM launchers deploying to
Central China are visible on new commercial satellite images.


Recent satellite images show that China is setting up launch units for its newest road-mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in central China. Several launchers of the new DF-31/31A appeared at two sites in the eastern part of the Qinghai province in June 2011. This is part of China’s slow modernization of its small (compared with Russia and the United States) nuclear arsenal.

An image taken on June 27, 2011 (see above), shows two DF-31/31A launchers on the launch pads of a small launch unit near Haiyan (36°49’37.12″N, 101° 6’22.97″E). One is positioned in a circular pad with support vehicles surrounding it. The circular pad was added to the facility sometime between 2005 and 2010. The other launcher is on a pad to the north, located next to an x-shaped launch pad and a missile garage. The layout of the Haiyan launch site is similar, yet not identical, to the DF-31 launch unit of the 813 Brigade at Nanyang.

Another image taken on June 6, 2011 (see below), shows six DF-31/31A launchers lined up on the parade ground at the 809 Brigade base in Datong about 50 kilometers (32 miles) to the east (36°56’57.67″N, 101°40’2.63″E). The brigade has been thought to be equipped with the DF-21 medium-range missile, but might be under conversion to the longer range DF-31/31A. It is unclear if the launchers are permanently based in the area or temporarily deployed from the 812 Brigade some 500 kilometers (290 miles) to the southeast.

SgvRt.jpg

Six mobile DF-31/31A launchers seen on display at a launch
brigade in Datong, Qinghai, in central China in June 2011.

With an estimated range of 7,200-plus kilometers (4,470 miles), the DF-31 cannot target the continental United States from Central China. But the modification known as DF-31A can with its estimated range of 11,200-plus kilometers (6,960 miles), reach most of the continental United States from Central China. The DF-31/31A missiles can target all of Russia and India from Central China.

Slow Deployment


Deployment of the DF-31 has been slow since it first entered service in 2006. Less than 10 missiles had been deployed with as many launchers by 2010, and not many more were added in 2011.

The DF-31A began deployment in 2007 with about a dozen missiles on as many launchers by 2010. Also counting 20 silo-based DF-5As, the U.S. intelligence community estimates that China currently has “fewer than 50” missiles that can target the continental United States, suggesting that less that 25 DF-31As are currently deployed. (The number is a little more uncertain now after the Pentagon in 2011 started supporting Chinese nuclear secrecy by no longer providing a breakdown of Chinese missile forces in its annual report on Chinese military power).

As older missiles with shorter range are retired and replaced by the DF-31/31A over the next decade, a greater portion of the Chinese missile force will be able to target the continental United States, perhaps twice as many by 2025. But even then, the Chinese force will be small compared with that of Russia and the United States.

---------- Post added at 12:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:35 PM ----------

i quote some posts from the blog

Nice find, although because this looks so obvious, it may be a faux installation. Faux installations are mentioned repeatedly in The Science of Second Artillery Operations – they go to great efforts to make them look operational, and in a sense they are almost as valuable.

The people in charge of putting these vehicles in straight matrix are probably doing it for training or for the satelites. They are reading this blog too and try to tell the world through you that they can amass 6 large TELs and many more smaller ones in one location. Imaginations will fly. If they keep doing this, we can guess that they will be all fake ones for whatever global striking things the Americans are developing. The real things probably will never come out during day time. The technical experts can tell how much more difficult it is to detect TELs traveling at night. It would be easier to hide TELs near large cities, which have tonnes of infrared signals plus the thick smog that would greatly defract the photons. Qinghai is too clean and desolate; it would make them look like sitting ducks.
 

kroko

Senior Member
Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

Have any news been reported about that 8-wheel (all-terrain?) ICBM TEL launcher that showed years ago? the last photo was 3 years ago...I find it strange that we havent seen anymore of it.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

Have any news been reported about that 8-wheel (all-terrain?) ICBM TEL launcher that showed years ago? the last photo was 3 years ago...I find it strange that we havent seen anymore of it.

If you want to believe someone like Bill Gertz then
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For him it is a 4000km range IRBM called DF25/DF26 or DF27.
 

kroko

Senior Member
Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

If you want to believe someone like Bill Gertz then
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For him it is a 4000km range IRBM called DF25/DF26 or DF27.

No. Not an IRBM but an ICBM. DF-31A or even DF-41. The cannister is even lengthier than the DF31A cannister that we have been seeing since 1999, in order to accomodate a bigger missile i guess. There were some photos of it years ago. In fact, i was expecting it to show in the 2009 parade, but it didnt.

2007 photos

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And i think this photo is from 2009

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Schumacher

Senior Member
Re: Chinese ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons

No thread on ABM systems ? So I'll put this here.
This talks about a scientist who contributed to successful tests of what seems to be a medium tier BM defense systems.

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