China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

People who say America is trying to create a perception of China being weaker by lowballing the # of nuclear warheads China has clearly don't know much about America. If anything they do the exact opposite, trying to hype things up to be more threatening than they are. They do it with China, they did it with the Soviet Union, even with middling powers like Iraq and now Iran.

If they say China has under 400 nukes, it's because they actually THINK so. Whether it is true or not, we do not know, and we certainly don't know if the American intelligence agencies have the ability to figure it out. It seems unlikely that they do, but not impossible.

Well because nobody know. And the proponent of low balling is not US government but FAS people like Jeffrey Lewis and Hans Kristensen They do have motive since they are pushing for nuclear disarmament and Having China with 1000 nuclear bomb is not going to advance their cause . A lot of DOD Study are actually compilation of publicly available material on Chinese stockpile And most of them are generated by the like of FAS DOD has their own study for the eyes only not available for wider public So we never know what their actual thinking

 

[Hendrik_2000]

What is the point then of having lots of nuclear weapons. The primary reason for it is deterrence. If you produce supposedly thousands of warheads, then why on Earth would you pretend not to have them. Then their only use becomes the actual use of them, which is ridiculous as we all know what happens in a nuclear 'surprise attack'.

The only reason for the scenario in which China has actually produced significantly more warheads than it says, is if the Chinese leadership believe that they have or will have a nuclear decapitation strike capability against the United States.

It is called strategic ambiguity read it up. Now here is the official statement

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[totenchan]

And you believe Chinese diplomat? remember this is individual diplomat statement not Chinese state. Of course they said that because they don't want to be pressured into entering nuclear limiting treaty. Their excuse is we don't have as many as the US or Soviet Union.

You still does not get it. Nowadays you don't built plutonium bomb Nobody does. They use plutonium as charger or primer to ignite the U235 fissile material You need very little of it something like 5 kg Now according to western estimate China has 200 to 300 ton of refined Plutonium So do your calculation.

Another thing why can't China increase the plutonium production? They have the technology to built graphite moderated reactor or even heavy water reactor and reprocess the spent fuel. China does have a reprocessing plant built using indigenous technology. They can't use the CANDU but they have their own heavy water reactor and nobody can prevent China to produce it. No inspector will be there as China is not signatory of any nuclear treaty. That is why US is desperate for china to join into SALT treaty

You are the one who doesn't get it. China retains a small stockpile of nuclear warheads because it is in their interest to, because maintaining a large stockpile is UTTERLY POINTLESS and EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. What the hell do you think nuclear weapons are? Do you think it matters that the USA has 6000 and China has 200? If just 40 nukes hits the US, they lose 20 percent of their population. With ten nukes, that's one-third of their economy gone. Do you think it is AT ALL smart that the US spends so much money on nuclear weapons? Do you realize what China is doing avoids the pitfalls of the Soviet Union and the US? You apparently realize none of this, which is why you are basically parotting the clownish American arms envoy by claiming that the Chinese stockpile is oh-so-big, and we need oh-so-many new systems from oh-so-many defense contractors to retain deterrence. You are doing a great service to the United States government, I hope you are happy.

 

[sinophilia]

Well because nobody know. And the proponent of low balling is not US government but FAS people like Jeffrey Lewis and Hans Kristensen They do have motive since they are pushing for nuclear disarmament and Having China with 1000 nuclear bomb is not going to advance their cause . A lot of DOD Study are actually compilation of publicly available material on Chinese stockpile And most of them are generated by the like of FAS DOD has their own study for the eyes only not available for wider public So we never know what their actual thinking

So in your opinion Jeffrey Lewis and Hans Kristensen are openly scheming and lying? I'm not sure sure about that. They would look like fools if China ever came out with the truth. If anything, bringing attention to a large Chinese nuclear arsenal would be more helpful to them if that is their goal. How is hiding the truth of the greatest nuclear buildup since the height of the Cold War a help to nuclear disarmament. If that is their goal its likely to blow up in their face.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

So in your opinion Jeffrey Lewis and Hans Kristensen are openly scheming and lying? I'm not sure sure about that. They would look like fools if China ever came out with the truth. If anything, bringing attention to a large Chinese nuclear arsenal would be more helpful to them if that is their goal. How is hiding the truth of the greatest nuclear buildup since the height of the Cold War a help to nuclear disarmament. If that is their goal its likely to blow up in their face.

Well Gordon Chang has been lying for decades now Does it hurt his career NO in fact it advance his career.
They have caught no guard so many time First they low ball then come DF 41 with 10 warhead and in the parade they have 18 launcher or more so He said it is not possible to have mirved 10 warhead His estimate is only 2 warhead If that is not mental gymnastic. I don't know what!

 

[sinophilia]

It is called strategic ambiguity read it up

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Maybe instead of asking people to read up on basic terminology as if to sound more complex and nuanced than you actually are, choose instead to define your terms and get to explaining your reasoning.

So tell us, how does the (supposed) policy of deliberate ambiguity on the Chinese nuclear arsenal help China?

 

[sinophilia]

Well Gordon Chang has been lying for decades now Does it hurt his career NO in fact it advance his career

Gordon Chang is just some insecure guy with an identity crisis. What is his expertise, what is his reputation among the highest intellectual circles? The height of his authority is his Fox News interviews. He is not on the same level as the Federation of American Scientists. They don't do tabloid work like Comrade Chang.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Gordon Chang is just some insecure guy with an identity crisis. What is his expertise, what is his reputation among the highest intellectual circles? The height of his authority is his Fox News interviews. He is not on the same level as the Federation of American Scientists. They don't do tabloid work like Comrade Chang.

What make you sure of that Only because you want to believe china has only 100 warhead?

 

[sinophilia]

What make you sure of that Only because you want to believe china has only 100 warhead?

I want to believe what the truth is, and you don't have any more knowledge on what that truth may be than any one of us.

You don't know, I don't know, and we can't even begin to guess with any more reasonable certainty than the FAS. I would say the FLOOR is 250 warheads, but likely more. I'd hope China has at least 600-800.

Not sure where you got the number 100 from...

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Maybe instead of asking people to read up on basic terminology as if to sound more complex and nuanced than you actually are, choose instead to define your terms and get to explaining your reasoning.

So tell us, how does the (supposed) policy of deliberate ambiguity on the Chinese nuclear arsenal help China?

Are you so thick of not knowing what is strategic ambiguity go figure it out yourself You are adult and not in kinder garten! Put it this way you been in this forum and you witness chinese progress by leap and bound in conventional weapon Why when it come to nuclear stockpile they are stuck to 300 for 2 decades USE YOUR HEAD

And why they build 3000 mile undergrounds tunnel if it only for 300 warhead? ANSWER ME