China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[PiSigma]

I'm very interested by the DF-26B, as they could make aircraft carriers obsolete against all but countries with small militaries. If the DF-26B was a smashing success, you can be sure that lots of countries around the world would start making their own versions. Ironically that could severely limit China's future plans for operating multiple aircraft carriers.

The only question I have is how fast was the target moving. That's an important detail that was not mentioned.

I agree with what you said, but the caveat is how long have China been doing research on ASBM? If a country like US start now, they are behind. By the time they catch up, another tech will become mature. Think that is why the Americans are focusing on hypersonic missiles.

 

[broadsword]

I'm very interested by the DF-26B, as they could make aircraft carriers obsolete against all but countries with small militaries. If the DF-26B was a smashing success, you can be sure that lots of countries around the world would start making their own versions. Ironically that could severely limit China's future plans for operating multiple aircraft carriers.

The only question I have is how fast was the target moving. That's an important detail that was not mentioned.

I don't think it matters whether it was doing 20 or 40 knots. Unless it was a 100hp speedboat zigzagging.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Spotting ships with satellites is old hat. Just look at this.

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Part of the Soviet Union's Legenda satellite targetting system to track targets to hit with the P-700 Granit missile.

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With modern satellite and launch technology China can't do it? Unthinkable.

I think the issue is not the answer, but rather than the question.

Is it possible to detect ships with satellites? ---- YES
Is it possible to get targeting data good enough for anti ship missiles with active seekers with satellites ? ---- YES
Is it possible to continuously (hourly or less update ) track ships with satellites ? -- NO
Is it possible to get targeting data for missiles without active seeker with satellites ?--- NO

See, the first step is to know the exact question, the answer is obvious afterwards.

 

[gelgoog]

I think the issue is not the answer, but rather than the question.

Is it possible to detect ships with satellites? ---- YES
Is it possible to get targeting data good enough for anti ship missiles with active seekers with satellites ? ---- YES
Is it possible to continuously (hourly or less update ) track ships with satellites ? -- NO
Is it possible to get targeting data for missiles without active seeker with satellites ?--- NO

See, the first step is to know the exact question, the answer is obvious afterwards.

Actually it is possible to continually track ships with enough satellites. But you don't need to. Ships are slow as snails compared with rockets.
Yes, the missile will have some sort of active seeker in it. It isn't a particularly big deal. The Soviet P-700 Granit had such seekers, heck even the Iranian Khalij Fars missile is a sort of SRBM with an active seeker to hit ships. It is obvious any such weapon system will have multiple ways to detect and track the target in order to be robust in combat scenarios. These will include inertial guidance, stellar guidance, satellite tracking with synthetic aperture radar (SAR), radar seekers and whatnot. Possibly even mid-course guidance updates based on position tracking data by surface ships or drones. The thing is, it isn't a new problem, even civilian satellites today have enough SAR resolution to be effective at tracking ships, if you read the Wikipedia article on that Soviet system, they were using it to track single destroyers in the 1970s. If you can track destroyers you can more easily track a whole carrier group with a huge carrier in the middle.

 

[ougoah]

I'm very interested by the DF-26B, as they could make aircraft carriers obsolete against all but countries with small militaries. If the DF-26B was a smashing success, you can be sure that lots of countries around the world would start making their own versions. Ironically that could severely limit China's future plans for operating multiple aircraft carriers.

The only question I have is how fast was the target moving. That's an important detail that was not mentioned.

Soviets had the idea but the technology back then simply couldn't make the idea workable. Iran has AShBM as well now. China spent 20 years at least developing AShBM and we've been hearing about it rather publicly for at least the last decade. The DF-26 and DF-21 AShBM versions in service now are probably already the nth iteration of this weapons platform that probably have been developing alongside improvements to other peripheral technologies.

Lots of countries cannot and will not spend the effort to achieve this because they are not under threat by Chinese or American or whatever carrier force. When it comes to other nations outside of China, Iran, and Russia (out of which two have AShBM while Russia has HGVs and Poseidon AKA Status 6 to sink CBGs) they would either not have the money, not have the skills, or not have the reasons. Iran and China both have great reasons for developing anti-carrier weapons.

So no, you can't be sure lots of countries around the world can start making their own just like lots of countries can't make their own nukes, or satellites, or space launch vehicles, or telecomm tech and the list is endless. Out of those that can, they may not have the money to burn, and out of those that can and have the spare funds, they don't have the need.

 

[gelgoog]

Russia does not use AShBM but they have the Oniks and (now) the Zircon missiles.
You have to understand that because of treaty limitations (INF Treaty) Russia did not use to invest in IRBMs.

With regards to China and its SAR satellites just look at this.

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[Hendrik_2000]

Everything you want to know about ASBM from western POV

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[AssassinsMace]

Remember how they said a Chinese ASBM couldn't hit a ship smaller than an aircraft carrier and certainly not while moving? And also China never tested it because the US would've known such a test had taken place. Was it a first time lucky shot? No, because two scored a hit for the US to have a front row seat meaning there had to have been many more tests they weren't able to detect in order to have that confidence to let the US to see it for themselves.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

That is correct that is why I said moving goal post!
China just confirmed what we had said all along they can hit back and their nuclear arsenal is secured
So all those talk of nuclear decapitation carry big risk and might boomerang

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China now has the nuclear strength to hit back at a first strike, former PLA colonel says

• The military has built an ‘underground Great Wall’ of tunnels to hide and move its arsenal of ballistic missiles, Wang Xiangsui tells Moganshan forum
• The defences add up to a credible ability to mount a second strike, resulting in a deterrent effect, he says

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in Beijing
Published: 12:00pm, 17 Nov, 2020


China’s JL-3 is estimated have a range of over 12,000km, putting the US well within reach from the Chinese coast. Photo: Handout

China has spent the last two decades building defences for its nuclear armoury on land and at sea, ensuring that

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can hit back at a nuclear attack and deter others from launching one, according a former Chinese senior colonel Wang Xiangsui, now a professor at Beihang University in Beijing, said these defences – which included a vast network of tunnels to transport and protect missiles – meant China’s security was guaranteed even in the worst scenario.
“Launching nuclear strikes on China has always been a military option for the US,” Wang told a closed-door meeting last month.

“But for this option they are facing increasing uncertainties due to our adjustment and changes in the past 20 years.

He delivered the assessment at the four-day Moganshan forum to discuss domestic and international issues and China’s new

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, but the transcript of his remarks was only made public on Wednesday.

Without specifying the source, Wang said some US assessments claimed that only one Chinese nuclear warhead would be able to survive a US first strike and reach American soil in a counter-attack.
He dismissed the claims as “clearly nonsense”.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Soviets had the idea but the technology back then simply couldn't make the idea workable

The Soviets had the technology, and they made it work.

The satellite that they used had half of the height than the current ones, means the efficiency of them was 16 times higher than the current ones.

So, the new generation has to have at least two magnitude higher capability to make up the loss due to the high altitude.