Where did people ever came up with the "China has 300 nuclear warheads" figure. Let it be known that China is the only member of the 5 recognized nuclear weapons states to have NEVER DISCLOSED ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL. I personally am puzzled how western analysts even got the 300 figure anyway. They have been saying that since the 1990s. There is no way I would believe China's nuclear arsenal remain unchanged for the past 30 years while it is adding thousands of new nuclear capable delivery systems, and China is not stopping there.
New systems like the brand new DF-41 that can field around 10 MIRVs, DF-17 hypersonic missile have already been showcased, indicating operational service. New Type 096 SSBN that can fire the new JL-3 SLBM(sucessfully test fired multiple times already) and nuclear capable H-20 stealth bombers will fielded in this decade. More hypersonic weapon systems are also being developed. This shows that China takes nuclear deterrence very seriously!
But these modernizations are also being noticed by the US. Recently, the US side has become increasingly worried about the pace of China's nuclear modernization, calling it a "crash buildup". According to US, China's rapid pace in nuclear modernization is making it increasingly inconsistent with China's official "no first use" and "minimal deterrence" policy. This has alarmed the US so much that they finally decided China needs to be included in a future nuclear arms control treaty along with Russia. This highlights China's strong and credible nuclear deterrent.
"
They want the world to believe that they only have a few hundred nuclear weapons, and the question you have to ask them is: Why have they never admitted how many nuclear weapons they actually have today? Right? Fu Cong has said what you said. My question is: Why don’t we start with you telling us how many weapons you have and how many you plan to build?"
August 18, 2020
Question: Thanks very much for doing this and for taking my question. I heard – Ambassador, I have a question regarding the United States’ assessment of China’s nuclear buildup. I remember that in this year’s annual China military power report there was – well, a forecast or a prediction that China’s nuclear arsenal would double in size with regards to the number of warheads, I think, over ten years. And, many of us were slightly surprised when that came out. Can you clarify how that number was arrived at, and what that means in the context of the security concerns that you’ve outlined earlier? Thank you.
Ambassador Billingslea: Kathrin, great question.
A couple of important aspects of that report. First of all, the numbers ascribed by the United States to China are – is an estimate that – first of all, is an estimate that we would be comfortable releasing publicly. And it is with reference to the operational warheads of China only – not the total size of their arsenal, their stockpile, nor perhaps, at any level of granularity that we would be prepared to discuss, except in a public format.
Also, I would tell you that the estimates of what they intend to do – what we’ve said is that they intend to at least double. At least double. And again, I cannot get further into that with you today, but I would very much recommend that we take note of a recent editorial run by the editor-in-chief of the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece, the
Global Times, where he publicly called for the deployment of a thousand warheads of the DF-41 ICBM alone.
October 1, 2020
These are recent statements coming from Marshall Billingslea, chief negotiator for nuclear arms control representing the US. Let that sink in. Even the US do not believe China has just a "few hundred nuclear weapons".
To better put into perspective China's buildup from US Admiral Charles Richard:
"Again, don't shoot behind the duck, right? It's not where they are, it's where they're going, right? And when China sets its mind to something, they are very impressive in their ability to go accomplish it.
They're -- and you've got to be careful about mirror imaging. They're not put together the same way that we are. But one of my favorite examples, and I think I have it here because it -- I want to get the numbers right -- you know, China just established a Coast Guard in 2013, right? And again, they've had other forces but they -- they decided they wanted a Coast Guard and in 2013 -- they have 255 ships today -- or I'm sorry, 255. In seven years, they go build 255, on -- on top of all of the other ships they're building. I just think that their strategic forces are next on their to-do list, right, and I'm trying to posture us for the threat that we're going to face, not the one that we have today."
