China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[davidau]

I think thats the reason why trump admin is so desperate in bringing China to start treaty, the won't allow China to reach nuclear parity and able to fight limited nuclear war
The question is what can they do to prevent China nuclear build up?

I don't believe China is that stupid dancing to the nuclear tune of US. The parity of nuclear warheads between US and China is 20:1. Until US brings its nuclear arsenal to China's level, it is laughable and intimidating to start 'treaty'. China can see through US cunningness.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

If Chinese navy keeps all its forces within Chinese territorial waters then a nuke there is still a nuke on the mainland.

This is a ludicrous suggestion. Then the US's nuclear weapons would have done their job even if they aren't used. The response is to threaten retaliatory use of nuclear weapons and have the means to enforce that threat.

 

[montyp165]

With the way things are going I'd say reviving all of the nuclear production programs that were frozen/shut down by Deng Xiaoping would be imperative at this point to augment existing expansion of nuclear forces, especially since the fundamental duplicity and triggerhappiness of the US right wing is so high as to fabricate any excuse for a preemptive nuclear strike. Making certain the US has no chance of winning at all is a strategic requirement, regardless of whether it is Russia or China having to deal with this situation.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Not necessarily. If the PLAN is nuked in territorial waters that isn't recognised by the US, then China can choose to retaliate against the US mainland and its cities or choose to back down and not retaliate. The former means certain destruction, the latter means the entire Chinese mainland is free from nuclear war. If the US goes down the path of nuking the PLAN, escalation is not a sure thing. China may even be the first to nuke the USN because the calculus is true both ways. Nuclear escalation is no longer a simple binary, in fact it has never been. Only Russia says any nuke no matter how "tactical" in yield and placement is going to be retaliated in full. I think it's important for China to also officially declare this in order to discourage US tactical nukes being used on Chinese military targets far from the mainland.

China has publicly announced no such policy and neither has the US. China's nuclear policy actually makes it unclear whether it will retaliate or how it will retaliate if only military targets are nuked. There is a lot of nuance and complexity when it comes to nuclear escalation and exchange.

And Russia is obviously bluffing. They will not go for Complete Nuclear suicide if they think the war they are fighting will not lead to existential crisis for the Russian state and people. So, even tactical nuke attack will be swallowed if the objective was limited. But they will retaliate with their own tactical nuke on their opponent. So, the opponent will have to be ready to see huge casualties in their own ranks. China openly declaring so will not make it believable either.

In fact, I think US and Russia or any other country will even swallow losing one city and only retaliate proportionally instead of going for a national suicide, if they think the enemy will only attack that one city. All out nuclear attack on all cities sounds like a good plan to create deterrence. But anyone bold enough actually do an attack on another country will find that Human beings have a lot of tolerance in terms taking losses or swallowing their pride. Even the most fanatic soldiers do surrender instead of fighting suicidally until the end. Most death row inmates do walk to their deaths instead of trying strangle their guards suicidally. Its human nature to try to survive even one more day if possible.

I think people just have a lot of inherent fear of Nukes. But nukes are just like any other weapon. They are used for advancing your goals. War can happen between nuclear states without becoming an all out nuclear shootout over cities. That kind of event will never happen because no one will escalate things to that level. They will either fight conventional war, and if they think they are losing, they will go for a negotiated surrender. The other party will always show restraint and try to advance its limited objectives instead of fighting an existential war of annihilation.

Even a all out war can happen without becoming a nuclear exchange over cities. People are intelligent enough to limit fighting to certain boundaries.

The reason war doesn't happen is because its just too costly without much benefit these days. In the past, the main resource was agricultural land or mining resources. Now a days, you can buy anything you want in the global market. Controlling land and people is simply not as beneficial as before. People themselves are more educated and national identity also exists. Thus, they are more likely to resist domination by another country. Which makes controlling more land even costlier.


The biggest source of wealth now is industry and trade. Things that are easy to destroy in a war. So, people do not fight wars anymore. The only wars that happen are civil wars. War between states are always limited in nature in order to stop losses on the most important that matters, Money.

 

[ougoah]

And Russia is obviously bluffing. They will not go for Complete Nuclear suicide if they think the war they are fighting will not lead to existential crisis for the Russian state and people. So, even tactical nuke attack will be swallowed if the objective was limited. But they will retaliate with their own tactical nuke on their opponent. So, the opponent will have to be ready to see huge casualties in their own ranks. China openly declaring so will not make it believable either.

In fact, I think US and Russia or any other country will even swallow losing one city and only retaliate proportionally instead of going for a national suicide, if they think the enemy will only attack that one city. All out nuclear attack on all cities sounds like a good plan to create deterrence. But anyone bold enough actually do an attack on another country will find that Human beings have a lot of tolerance in terms taking losses or swallowing their pride. Even the most fanatic soldiers do surrender instead of fighting suicidally until the end. Most death row inmates do walk to their deaths instead of trying strangle their guards suicidally. Its human nature to try to survive even one more day if possible.

I think people just have a lot of inherent fear of Nukes. But nukes are just like any other weapon. They are used for advancing your goals. War can happen between nuclear states without becoming an all out nuclear shootout over cities. That kind of event will never happen because no one will escalate things to that level. They will either fight conventional war, and if they think they are losing, they will go for a negotiated surrender. The other party will always show restraint and try to advance its limited objectives instead of fighting an existential war of annihilation.

Even a all out war can happen without becoming a nuclear exchange over cities. People are intelligent enough to limit fighting to certain boundaries.

The reason war doesn't happen is because its just too costly without much benefit these days. In the past, the main resource was agricultural land or mining resources. Now a days, you can buy anything you want in the global market. Controlling land and people is simply not as beneficial as before. People themselves are more educated and national identity also exists. Thus, they are more likely to resist domination by another country. Which makes controlling more land even costlier.


The biggest source of wealth now is industry and trade. Things that are easy to destroy in a war. So, people do not fight wars anymore. The only wars that happen are civil wars. War between states are always limited in nature in order to stop losses on the most important that matters, Money.

Well this is purely theoretical ground. I wouldn't call Russia's "bluff" if I were the US and as things stand, China's ability to make such a bluff simply doesn't measure up to the US or Russia's. Will the US really nuke one city and risk it? Again, there is no practical handbook on this. No nation knows for sure how another will respond to a tactical nuke or a nuke destroying one of their cities. If the US nukes Beijing, will China nuke NY or Washington DC? Beijing's population is many, many times more. So is one city for another truly equal retaliation? You see the problems already.

 

[antiterror13]

I think thats the reason why trump admin is so desperate in bringing China to start treaty, the won't allow China to reach nuclear parity and able to fight limited nuclear war
The question is what can they do to prevent China nuclear build up?

more tariffs and bans ... thats the only weapon he has in his arsenal

 

[Sardaukar20]

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I'd be careful about sharing these kinds of articles. I've seen a good number of videos of the Beirut explosion to safely say that it is not nuclear. I suggest to go and see some real-life videos of small yield nuclear tests, and other videos of large non nuclear explosions. You'll get all your answers there.

I do not like Trump and Netanyahu. But we should not be having discussions based on obvious mistruths.

 

[ougoah]

No way the Beirut explosion was nuclear and still somehow hidden from public knowledge. You can get alpha beta gamma detectors on ebay ffs for less than $100, ionising radiation or not, they're all available. Nuclear would have so much detectable radiation still it just takes one random or government effort to verify this. That site and material is absolute junk. If you want to spin propaganda and BS, you gotta take some lessons from the English, Americans, and Israelis first. One read and about the author/s it is the usual pish posh Chinese effort. Seriously when are we going to get better at propaganda?! This shit is embarrassingly bad. The pathetic "missiles" in "infrared" At least it's distanced from actual Chinese networks. Hopefully this is just an example of random nationalists making an attempt rather than some state backed effort. Fire those people, hire some westernised Chinese for the job.

 

[Sardaukar20]

No way the Beirut explosion was nuclear and still somehow hidden from public knowledge. You can get alpha beta gamma detectors on ebay ffs for less than $100, ionising radiation or not, they're all available. Nuclear would have so much detectable radiation still it just takes one random or government effort to verify this. That site and material is absolute junk. If you want to spin propaganda and BS, you gotta take some lessons from the English, Americans, and Israelis first. One read and about the author/s it is the usual pish posh Chinese effort. Seriously when are we going to get better at propaganda?! This shit is embarrassingly bad. The pathetic "missiles" in "infrared" At least it's distanced from actual Chinese networks. Hopefully this is just an example of random nationalists making an attempt rather than some state backed effort. Fire those people, hire some westernised Chinese for the job.

I've read a few articles from this 'metallic man' website and seen his YouTube videos. He is an American expat living in China. But he is an example of an extreme Pro-China fan, and a sensationalist. He has published many conspiracy theories about US evils. But too many of them are based on made up fantasies. So he is one of those guys I do not recommend to get any news.

He is definitely not involved in the Chinese propaganda machine. They would be censoring him even if he is 'Pro-China'. He is actually a lone wolf conspiracy theorist. That's all.

On the point of the CCP propaganda machine hiring more westernised Chinese. This I quite agree. I would even suggest to get some more non-Chinese English speakers who share the Chinese view of things to join the cause. Good thing is, I already see this starting to happen now with CGTN.

 

[ougoah]

I've read a few articles from this 'metallic man' website and seen his YouTube videos. He is an American expat living in China. But he is an example of an extreme Pro-China fan, and a sensationalist. He has published many conspiracy theories about US evils. But too many of them are based on made up fantasies. So he is one of those guys I do not recommend to get any news.

He is definitely not involved in the Chinese propaganda machine. They would be censoring him even if he is 'Pro-China'. He is actually a lone wolf conspiracy theorist. That's all.

On the point of the CCP propaganda machine hiring more westernised Chinese. This I quite agree. I would even suggest to get some more non-Chinese English speakers who share the Chinese view of things to join the cause. Good thing is, I already see this starting to happen now with CGTN.

Most of the content in that post seems to be written by a "Gordon Duff" from the Veterans Today publication

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For the rest of the blog, there are plenty of Chinese posters talking about US plans to kill all Chinese people. Now I'm also confident the US wants to destroy China by any and all means necessary but those posts are pure conjecture and wild conspiracy.

Anyway the Beirut explosion involving some nuclear device is pure nonsense. Even in the case of an airstrike attack, the explosion could have been caused by chemicals and triggered by conventional weapons. Why does it need to be nuclear? That wasn't a "mushroom cloud". How is any of this possibly hide-able?