China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[caohailiang]

What you said could be right, but the expensive desinger aquarium can be well explained with the current policy, which is "mutual vunerability can be accepted even with certain degree of disparity"
The strategic ambiguity in terms of warhead numbers, can be seen as an intentional step to further the deterrence. And given the recent anxiousness on the US side, it is obviously working.

Nuclear program is one of the few things the government will lie about because its core to the national defense mission and also because PLA's actual nuclear policy might not be politically justifiable to the population.

China officially saying they have 300 nukes is bullshit not just because they have much more ICBM alone than that, more importantly they also have a vast nuclear war infrastructure that's many times more expensive to maintain and upgrade than maintaining warheads. It's like someone filling his house with expensive designer aquariums then claiming he only has 1 goldfish.

Building 100 kms of nuke proof tunnels, pioneering missile defense tech and finding new stealthy/fast ways of delivery isn't the behavior of a reluctant minor nuclear power who would never attack first...

In words China doesn't admit it but in actions they're seeking some form of nuclear superiority, maybe not necessarily planning to preemptively strike US but a small nuclear power like India, or the missile defense buildup is to win a limited nuclear exchange. If such a strategy was publicly known, it would be a huge scandal for the military who would lose public support.

Very few people in China compared to say America or India would find it justifiable to lose several cities and/or go into nuclear bunkers in exchange for annihilating the enemy country, yet this might be one of the scenarios that the Chinese government is planning.

 

[Dante80]

The strategic ambiguity in terms of warhead numbers, can be seen as an intentional step to further the deterrence. And given the recent anxiousness on the US side, it is obviously working.

The US knows exactly both arms levels and capabilities of PRCs nuclear arsenal. How could they not, after all?

I think you are confusing or misinterpreting Trumps' re-election campaign rick-rolling antics with generalized US anxiety.

 

[ougoah]

The US knows exactly both arms levels and capabilities of PRCs nuclear arsenal. How could they not, after all?

I think you are confusing or misinterpreting Trumps' re-election campaign rick-rolling antics with generalized US anxiety.

Unless they've got spies high up in CCP, I doubt they know PRC's nuclear arsenal exactly.

Unfortunately for China, both ASAT/BMD and hypersonic vehicle tests and launch sites are easily observable for the US (through satellites and vessels stationed close to China) and both of those have been happening in China since 2006/2007. If building towards some sort of eventual pre-emptive strike on the US is ever on the cards, with the trade off being a few successful US hits, is actually something the CCP wants to build towards having even if it's not realistic or palatable either. I think for now, a very strong deterrence should be pursued at the very least. This means stockpiling over a thousand high yield MT warheads and building enough long range ICBM/SLBMs like DF-5, DF-31, DF-41, DF-x, JL-2, JL-3, and of course Type 094 and future Type 096.

China's would be using SRBMs, MRBMs, and IRBMs against any exchange with India. Maybe also JL-2 if it's seriously going to be a cover the country with nukes scenario. India isn't suicidal and will not seriously be considering nukes unless PLA is marching on New Delhi with the intention of taking over. None of this will happen or even needs to happen these days, but this still wouldn't be reason enough for the CCP to not be stockpiling their newest nuclear weapons.

 

[Figaro]

The US knows exactly both arms levels and capabilities of PRCs nuclear arsenal. How could they not, after all?

I think you are confusing or misinterpreting Trumps' re-election campaign rick-rolling antics with generalized US anxiety.

Oddly enough many people did not pick up on this intelligence assessment, which I think was extremely significant. If I'm not mistaken, the Chinese arsenal size estimate was approximately 300 ten years ago as well. So basically US intelligence just confirmed that China has at least 600 nuclear weapons, which is double the number the anti-nuclear FAS or SIPRI gives for China. I still think they have at least 1000 nukes but finally the US intelligence is producing a more realistic assessment.

Another official, Rear Adm. Michael Brookes, director of intelligence for the command, said China's nuclear forces modernization is a concern.

"China has long had a no-first-use policy, and yet they've doubled their nuclear arsenal in about the last decade, and they're on track to double it again in the next decade," Brookes said during a Stratcom conference on deterrence.

"It's a little bit concerning the breathtaking pace of change with regard to their arsenal," he said.

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[shanlung]

China officially saying they have 300 nukes is bullshit not just because they have much more ICBM alone than that, more importantly they also have a vast nuclear war infrastructure that's many times more expensive to maintain and upgrade than maintaining warheads. It's like someone filling his house with expensive designer aquariums then claiming he only has 1 goldfish.

I dont think and never seen China ever officially saying they have 300 nukes.

China consistently declined to comment on how many nukes that they got or to refute any numbers being bandied about by Western knowledgable experts. Perhaps China decided China too stupid in comparision to those folks and declined to join in on their comments.

Perhaps something I wrote here China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread might shed some light on the numbers.

Then also consider that while China got 200 ++ nukes as so claimed, there is also a strong possibility China got 2000 to 3000 U235/Pu cores AND 2000-3000 assemblies.
Without the cores inserted, no nukes, or just 200++ nukes. But in time of crisis, China can insert those 2 to 3000 cores into the assemblies in a matter of days. That the warheads delivered be sending more than just dim sum or General Tso sweet and sour chicken or cleaned pressed laundry.

So please, let there be peace.
No one will give a flying f**k as to why the many suns be shining on Earth or why that started.

Building 100 kms of nuke proof tunnels, pioneering missile defense tech and finding new stealthy/fast ways of delivery isn't the behavior of a reluctant minor nuclear power who would never attack first...

That needed a wee bit of correction.
Saying China got 100 kms of nuke proof tunnels is like saying China got 200++ nukes.

Read this and smile.

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[escobar]

Nuclear program is one of the few things the government will lie about because its core to the national defense mission and also because PLA's actual nuclear policy might not be politically justifiable to the population.

China officially saying they have 300 nukes is bullshit not just because they have much more ICBM alone than that, more importantly they also have a vast nuclear war infrastructure that's many times more expensive to maintain and upgrade than maintaining warheads. It's like someone filling his house with expensive designer aquariums then claiming he only has 1 goldfish.

Building 100 kms of nuke proof tunnels, pioneering missile defense tech and finding new stealthy/fast ways of delivery isn't the behavior of a reluctant minor nuclear power who would never attack first...

In words China doesn't admit it but in actions they're seeking some form of nuclear superiority, maybe not necessarily planning to preemptively strike US but a small nuclear power like India, or the missile defense buildup is to win a limited nuclear exchange. If such a strategy was publicly known, it would be a huge scandal for the military who would lose public support.

Very few people in China compared to say America or India would find it justifiable to lose several cities and/or go into nuclear bunkers in exchange for annihilating the enemy country, yet this might be one of the scenarios that the Chinese government is planning.

Director General, Department of Arms Control, MFA, PRC

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1280733149819887616

 

[Figaro]

Director General, Department of Arms Control, MFA, PRC

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1280733149819887616

Of course that's what the Chinese gov would say ... since everyone believes they have very few nukes (along the lines of 300), how could they demand China to go into a nuclear arms agreement with Russia and the US? IMO this is the ultimate form of strategic deception ... the US knows this and knows that China probably has at least 1000 nukes. The problem is what can the US do about it without evidence, especially since people have long held the belief China didn't have many nukes. There is a reason why Trump really wanted China to participate in the arms agreement.

 

[ougoah]

The US almost certainly knows how far off a guess the 300 warheads number may be. The deterrence factor doesn't change for PLA as long as its main nuclear threats understand the reality. There's simply no way a country with many hundreds, possibly over a thousand missiles from SRBMs to DF-5 range ICBMs and two concurrent SLBM types, could only be keeping 300 warheads active. Yu Min configuration is supposed to allow for extended warhead lifespans too. Most of these ICBMs and SLBMs are designed to carry MIRVs so it's not even a case of 1 warhead per missile.

Ignoring the vast resources spent on the tunnel networks, silos, rail and cargo hidden missiles and the effort made to hide and make missiles mobile and difficult if not impossible to track, could China be relying on a measly 300 warheads? That's barely enough to guarantee the coverage of the US alone.

Okay so the 300 figure is decade old assumption made by the "China is weak" analyst crowd in the US. But the real warhead numbers should factor/s greater than the SRBM-ICBM missile count. There are also free fall bombs and cruise missiles or air launched missiles that may be nuclear capable as other nuclear powers continue to use. That would only up the warhead numbers.

 

[antiterror13]

Of course that's what the Chinese gov would say ... since everyone believes they have very few nukes (along the lines of 300), how could they demand China to go into a nuclear arms agreement with Russia and the US? IMO this is the ultimate form of strategic deception ... the US knows this and knows that China probably has at least 1000 nukes. The problem is what can the US do about it without evidence, especially since people have long held the belief China didn't have many nukes. There is a reason why Trump really wanted China to participate in the arms agreement.

Yes, so the goal is to know exactly how many nukes China have? cunning plan and China is just way too good to know that, yes 1,000 nukes is very reasonable to me

 

[Dante80]

Yes, so the goal is to know exactly how many nukes China have?

Of course not.
Moreover, the 300 deployed warhead estimate 10 years ago sounds pretty accurate, at least given the particulars at hand back then and the unclassified sources available. I don't really understand how this "China is weak analysts" criticism came to be in the first place.
Nationalism/fanboyism?

I will re-iterate. One thing is for certain, the US - at least - knows how big the Chinese arsenal really is. Anyone thinking something different should probably re-adjust his views on the matter at hand.