China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[AndrewS]

That is right Sometime people forgot Japanese role in Chinese modernization though Japanese thought their assistance is not free or large But they paly important role in technology transfer because in the 60's when China start the modernization of infrastructure. Most of the harbors, railways, airport are built by the Japanese companies. I remembber 16 harbors and 2 electrified trunk line.Power plant etc Latter modern manufacturing move en mass to china again transfer of technology and management.

Even today with semiconductor many japanese semiconductor are supplying Huawei and robotic stepper motor from Fuji.

Certainly the government is toeing to US out of obvious reason But there are in Japan who see that their future will hinge on China and they make preparation for that day specially among the industrialist Keidanren.

It's the politicians as well who see Japan's future is in a Chinese orbit.

Tokyo Mayor Ishihara Shintaro was on record as saying they needed to solidify control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island now, because in the future, China would be so big it could easily overwhelm Japan from both an economic and military point of view.

Ishihara Shintaro was famous for authoring the nationalistic book "The Japan That Can Say No: Why Japan Will Be First Among Equals" when Japan thought it could compete with the USA in the 1980s.

And when Abe Shinzo was Prime Minister the first time around, he was in favour of engagement in China (and still is).
It was for the same reason as he also saw China as Japan's future/challenge.

Anyway, back on topic.

 

[hullopilllw]

It's the politicians as well who see Japan's future is in a Chinese orbit.

Tokyo Mayor Ishihara Shintaro was on record as saying they needed to solidify control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island now, because in the future, China would be so big it could easily overwhelm Japan from both an economic and military point of view.

Ishihara Shintaro was famous for authoring the nationalistic book "The Japan That Can Say No: Why Japan Will Be First Among Equals" when Japan thought it could compete with the USA in the 1980s.

And when Abe Shinzo was Prime Minister the first time around, he was in favour of engagement in China (and still is).
It was for the same reason as he also saw China as Japan's future/challenge.

So how much leverage do you feel Japan has over China, currently. Has it reached a tipping point ? When will it be considered "big it could easily overwhelm Japan" ?

 

[AndrewS]

So how much leverage do you feel Japan has over China, currently. Has it reached a tipping point ? When will it be considered "big it could easily overwhelm Japan" ?

China currently is larger than Japan as follows:

Population: 11x
GDP (nominal): approx 3x
GDP (PPP): approx 5x
Military spending (nominal): approx 5x
Military spending (PPP): approx 8x

It's difficult to say when the tipping point will be, as it is depends on a mix of factors.

Perhaps in 10-15 years time, when the Chinese economy and military spending could be 2x bigger than today.

Anyway, back to the topic.

 

[MrCrazyBoyRavi]

When you pay 250 nukes as premium for Natiobal security , you will get stupid coverage when actual shooting war occurs. Ads by Geico

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Ishihara Shintaro was famous for authoring the nationalistic book "The Japan That Can Say No: Why Japan Will Be First Among Equals" when Japan thought it could compete with the USA in the 1980s.

It's times like these I wish this forum had a laugh emoji.

 

[hullopilllw]

It's times like these I wish this forum had a laugh emoji.

Don't be so bad, we all knew Plaza Accord come by and Japan does not look back ever since.

 

[antiterror13]

deleted

 

[Deino]

Ok guys ... with the next post containing anything on a potential Japanese nuclear arsenal and their Plutonium stockpile I will delete the whole discussion of this off-top stuff!

The topic is China Ballistic missiles ... and not Japan!

 

[Totoro]

Second piece of evidence is the latest numbers from US gov's China Military Power Report 2019. The report gives us the total number of launchers in each range class, so the total number of deployed ICBM launchers is cited to be 90. Because we know the ORBAT for the PLARF, we can break that down based on each brigade. The silo forces are the easiest to count - they have three brigades, each with six silos, so subtract 18 launchers, giving us a remaining total of 72 launchers. All these remaining launchers are DF-31 or DF-31A brigades (the deployment location for the DF-41 is still under construction, and is thus not yet deployed). Because we accurately measure the infrastructure at each brigade base, we can estimate how that breaks down, as the PLARF has exactly 72 places to deploy the DF-31 and its variants. Five of the brigades have twleve launchers, and two have only six, which is why I say that DF-31 brigades USUALLY have twelve launchers.

I don't think it's at all clear from the DoD report that it doesn't include DF-41 in their assesment. It could very well include them. So something like 20-ish launchers out of those 90 could be for DF-41.

Finally, we can count brigade numbers my examining where they build the vehicle TELs. ...because the production locations ship completed TELs out in brigade sized batches, we can see a completed brigade set before they deploy, which serves as additional confirmation that brigades have 12 launchers per brigade.

Not sure I understand you here. Are you saying there are actual images of the launchers at production facilities out there? And that some images show 12 launchers together? If so, please do present such an image here, that would be very much a big piece of news, if such image exists. And if it's a satellite image, please do supply the coordinates of the location as well.

As a note, Hans actually does say in his count that the DF-31 and its variants have six or twelve launchers per brigade, he's just counting less launchers than I am. He counts one DF-31 brigade with six launchers, two DF-31A brigades with twelve launchers, and two more DF-31AG brigades each with twelve launchers, for a total of five brigades. There's some disputes over the two brigades that I'll get into at a later date.

In the 2019 edition of Chinese nuke forces Hans says he thinks there are 4 DF31A brigades with 6 launchers each for a total of 24 launchers. And DF31 having a total of 6 launchers. Implying there's just one unit.
And he says there are 24 DF31AG launchers but also doesn't give number of brigades. There could be, of course, just 2 or 3 brigades for those, if the launcher numbers increased. And and you yourself say, there are some indications SOME of the DF31 family units do seem to have increased number of launchers, compared to initial brigade sizes.

 

[Totoro]

A thought about JL-2 missile numbers. Recent newsbits suggested that the additional two 094 subs that were built have been commissioned. For a total of 6 boats right now. They may not all be actually ready for active service yet, but that's beside the point right now.

How many missiles could there be for those 6 boats, once they do get ready for active service? We have the example of UK/France, which maintain missile numbers for 3 subs, out of the 4 they have. And we have the claim by H. Kristensen about US nuke forces, deploying missiles to 12 out of 14 subs that the US has. So a ratio between 1 in 4 and 1 in 7 is also plausible for Chinese subs.

In practice, that'd suggest that out of 6 094 subs, at the very least 4, but more likely 5 of those would actually have missiles deployed to them. Kristensen also mentions that even though 240 Trident missiles are deployed on those 12 US subs, there are in total 448 Trident missiles in the inventory. He mentions about half of those are for spares and test flights. It is unclear whether that inventory also includes the 30 something tridents that the UK uses. The UK does source their tridents from the same resource pool as the US, as missiles get maintained together and the missiles UK gets are basically leased missiles - they get a right to A missile but after maintenance the missile they get may not be the same missile they had before.

Anyway, even IF the UK Tridents are part of that number, it'd suggest US maintains some 420 SLBMs for a fleet of subs numbering 14 vessels, with total theoretical launch cells numbering 336 missiles. That's 25% more than theoretical capacity and 45% more than the usual capacity if 12 subs are available.

Now, those percentages may not apply to China. Certainly, UK and France use fewer missiles than they have room for. And even in the case of the US, the Trident stock may be there just because they had missiles left over since they retired other classes of subs, besides Ohio class.

When it comes to Minuteman ICBMs for example, 400 missiles out of stock of 450 are actually deployed. So 11% more could be deployed, in theory.

With all that - I would wager that with the current/upcoming 6 boat strong fleet of 094 subs - China likely has deployed 48-60 JL-2 subs and may have in total 60-72 JL-2 missiles overall in its inventory.