Maybe, but US cannot plan an all out strike on China without having to also take Russia's arsenal into account. Suppose US can with it's larger nuclear arsenal do a first strike against China while suffering 'acceptable' losses, what has it got left against a Russia that may then use this opportunity to eliminate her own threat? With 300 nukes China may not be able to game it this way. With 3000 it would work.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Maybe, but US cannot plan an all out strike on China without having to also take Russia's arsenal into account. Suppose US can with it's larger nuclear arsenal do a first strike against China while suffering 'acceptable' losses, what has it got left against a Russia that may then use this opportunity to eliminate her own threat? With 300 nukes China may not be able to game it this way. With 3000 it would work.
antiterror13
Brigadier
I believe China already have ~1,000 warheads .. for DF-41, yes need at least 100 which would cost roughly US$5B which is nothing
i dont quite understand the logic here. If a nuclear deterrence is kept secret from the opponent, then it is not much use in deterring, is it? I am sure there is a reason for the PLA to do that, what is it?
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Because revealing that you have a lot more warheads than previously believed can act as a serious trump card in times of tension.
If two countries were at a political impasse and one of them reveals that they actually have 10x the number of nuclear warheads than what the public has believed, then that leaves the other country with very little time or options to leverage a response.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
The number X is the biggest headache for any military planner trying to strategize against you.
that makes sense.
Has Russia or US ever pursued similar ambiguity?
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Well, the USSR and US were almost constantly in a state of tension, so they were facing a different set of circumstances. You also wouldn't need to pull this off if you had the luxury of 10000 warheads at your disposal, I suppose.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Well, I am sure the CIA would know the approximate number (which is NOT 300), but they just don't want the public to know ...
Why do you think Trump wanted to include China in the nuclear treaty with Russia and not UK and France if China had similar number of nukes as UK or France ?
As someone posted earlier, the Chief Editor of Global Times Mr Hu Xijin advocated on Weibo that China should expand its nuclear arsenal to about ~1000 warheads, roughly 1/6 th of the US's.
This stirred up much debate within China, many supported this motion some hated it while most people seem to be indifferent since it isn't an official announcement. But, interestingly, this question got asked during one of MoFA's daily press briefings and of course the spokesperson never directly said whether China was going to do it or not. But the fact a question as to what the Chinese government thinks of such a proposal got asked to the spokesperson says a lot in and of itself.
Many now doubt if China's already have that much nuclear warheads (~1000) OR is already in the process of building this number up and are just prepping people about this eventual outcome.
This stirred up much debate within China, many supported this motion some hated it while most people seem to be indifferent since it isn't an official announcement. But, interestingly, this question got asked during one of MoFA's daily press briefings and of course the spokesperson never directly said whether China was going to do it or not. But the fact a question as to what the Chinese government thinks of such a proposal got asked to the spokesperson says a lot in and of itself.
Many now doubt if China's already have that much nuclear warheads (~1000) OR is already in the process of building this number up and are just prepping people about this eventual outcome.
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