China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Appix]

China's test of sub-launched missile a threat to peace, retired captain warns

Underwater JL-3 launch comes amid fears of North Korean missile test
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- The Washington Times - Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Photo by: Mark Schiefelbein
A Great Wall 236 submarine of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, billed by Chinese state media as a new type of conventional submarine, participates in a naval parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of China's PLA Navy in the sea near Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong province, Tuesday, April 23, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool)

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’s military this week conducted a flight test of a new submarine-launched missile capable of hitting the entire United States with a nuclear warhead, according to

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officials.
The Chinese test comes amid heightened concerns North Korea is preparing its own long-range missile launch, possibly as early as Wednesday.

The test firing of

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’s new JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile took place Sunday in the Bohai Sea off the coast of northern

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, from a submerged Jin-class ballistic missile submarine, said two defense officials familiar with reports of the launch who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The missile firing was monitored by U.S. intelligence satellites and other platforms from a position in the same sea and was monitored on a flight path westward.
No other details of the launch were disclosed, including whether the missile test was successful.

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spokesman Lt. Col. David W. Eastburn said he had no information on the launch.
The Chinese launch followed reports that U.S. intelligence agencies are on alert for an anticipated long-range missile test by North Korea.

Source :.

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Are there other sources which report a new Julang-3 SLBM test? I should not depend on one neo-con American source.

 

[Dante80]

Are there other sources which report a new Julang-3 SLBM test? I should not depend on one neo-con American source.

My understanding is that we have seen some aerial photos of missile plumes that are pretty compatible with such a test (or sth similar) taking place. There was also a test launch of a re-usable rocket prototype (TianXing Ⅰ) on Dec 23 though, so said pictures could be from that article.

 

[tidalwave]

According to Chinese news, the most significant aspect of JL3 testing is its launch platform which was 094, not the diesel test submarine. This is significant, because JL3 now doesn't have to wait for 096 and directly upgrade ALL 6. 094 and form a second strike underwater unit that can hit anywhere in US. All of them can be stationed in South China Sea with deep water, almosr impossible to discover.
Land mobile DF41 based at heilongjiang can be wiped out with first strike but this ses based JL3 second strike unit will be much more survivable.

 

[SinoSoldier]

According to Chinese news, the most significant aspect of JL3 testing is its launch platform which was 094, not the diesel test submarine. This is significant, because JL3 now doesn't have to wait for 096 and directly upgrade ALL 6. 094 and form a second strike underwater unit that can hit anywhere in US. All of them can be stationed in South China Sea with deep water, almosr impossible to discover.
Land mobile DF41 based at heilongjiang can be wiped out with first strike but this ses based JL3 second strike unit will be much more survivable.

There is no indication that the 09IV is capable of launching the JL-3.

 

[tidalwave]

There is no indication that the 09IV is capable of launching the JL-3.

Fits 094 tubes.

 

[antiterror13]

According to Chinese news, the most significant aspect of JL3 testing is its launch platform which was 094, not the diesel test submarine. This is significant, because JL3 now doesn't have to wait for 096 and directly upgrade ALL 6. 094 and form a second strike underwater unit that can hit anywhere in US. All of them can be stationed in South China Sea with deep water, almosr impossible to discover.
Land mobile DF41 based at heilongjiang can be wiped out with first strike but this ses based JL3 second strike unit will be much more survivable.

Thats great news. Any link to the news?
There is no way to wipe out land mobile DF-41 with first strike, impossible!

This is the link

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Paragraph mentioning the launch from Jin SSBN (094)
"The test firing of China’s new JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile took place Sunday in the Bohai Sea off the coast of northern China, from a submerged Jin-class ballistic missile submarine, said two defense officials familiar with reports of the launch who spoke on condition of anonymity."

 

[Totoro]

I would consider those alleged news to be quite implausible and use extreme caution before simply believing they're true and correct. The likelihood that JL-3 is the same size as JL-3 and that it can fit in a Jin class sub might actually be quite small.

JL-2 is already fairly small when compared to other modern SLBMs. So even if the missile tech itself is on par with those missiles, likelihood that enough range can be extracted from a smaller size is remote.

On the other hand, if we do accept that JL-3 is likely a bigger missile that would require a sub capable of launching larger missiles. There are two possiiblities here:
1. That the news are wrong and it was indeed the Qing class test submarine that did the test. Why is that likely? Because it's a test submarine desinged specifically for the purpose of SLBM tests (among other things) and because we actually saw that submarine be modified so it received a larger sail capable of taking in a larger SLBM. Which would point out to the fact that JL-3 is indeed larger than JL-2

2. Second possibility is that indeed a Jin class sub was used to test JL-3. But if we accept that JL-3 is larger, then that Jin class must also be a special test submarine. A vessel that would be unmistakable as it'd have to have a visibly larger hump. To date we've not seen such a Jin sub. That doesn't mean it's not out there. But it may not be as likely, as we've had pretty good coverage of new Jin subs and the shipyard is monitored so secret launches of new subtype of subs are not that likely.

Furthermore, an one-off modified jin sub means that all the rest 094 subs can not use those larger JL-3 missiles. At least not until they too have been modified. Which is certainly a multi year process and one that we would not miss, as the bigger humps would be very obvious.

In a sense, if that does happen, then one could call the new 094 variants virtually new classes. Something in between of 094 and 096. And the urgency for 096 may not even be there anymore, as other improvements may be added as well.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Land mobile DF41 based at heilongjiang can be wiped out with first strike but this ses based JL3 second strike unit will be much more survivable.

Why would the DF-41 be based only in Heilongjiang? They have the range to hit the entirety of the US from anywhere in China; they wouldn't be concentrated in one province, they'd be spread throughout the country.

 

[tidalwave]

Why would the DF-41 be based only in Heilongjiang? They have the range to hit the entirety of the US from anywhere in China; they wouldn't be concentrated in one province, they'd be spread throughout the country.

Closest to US, gives the least amount of reaction time.

 

[tidalwave]

I would consider those alleged news to be quite implausible and use extreme caution before simply believing they're true and correct. The likelihood that JL-3 is the same size as JL-3 and that it can fit in a Jin class sub might actually be quite small

JL-2 is already fairly small when compared to other modern SLBMs. So even if the missile tech itself is on par with those missiles, likelihood that enough range can be extracted from a smaller size is remote.

On the other hand, if we do accept that JL-3 is likely a bigger missile that would require a sub capable of launching larger missiles. There are two possiiblities here:
1. That the news are wrong and it was indeed the Qing class test submarine that did the test. Why is that likely? Because it's a test submarine desinged specifically for the purpose of SLBM tests (among other things) and because we actually saw that submarine be modified so it received a larger sail capable of taking in a larger SLBM. Which would point out to the fact that JL-3 is indeed larger than JL-2

2. Second possibility is that indeed a Jin class sub was used to test JL-3. But if we accept that JL-3 is larger, then that Jin class must also be a special test submarine. A vessel that would be unmistakable as it'd have to have a visibly larger hump. To date we've not seen such a Jin sub. That doesn't mean it's not out there. But it may not be as likely, as we've had pretty good coverage of new Jin subs and the shipyard is monitored so secret launches of new subtype of subs are not that likely.

Furthermore, an one-off modified jin sub means that all the rest 094 subs can not use those larger JL-3 missiles. At least not until they too have been modified. Which is certainly a multi year process and one that we would not miss, as the bigger humps would be very obvious.

In a sense, if that does happen, then one could call the new 094 variants virtually new classes. Something in between of 094 and 096. And the urgency for 096 may not even be there anymore, as other improvements may be added as well.

Possible that 094 having tube that larger than JL2. When design a sub , making the tube exact fit to a specific missile means it cannot be upgraded and that would be inflexible