China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[shanlung]

The rumors are referring to DF51. The DF-41 and 31 will remain mobile. DF51 is supposed to be much larger, higher payload and longer than 41's range, making mobile almost impossible, therefor the silo.

An extract of what I wrote below in post 57638 might shed some light on what DF51 might be derived from

If China got only 260 thermonukes like what everyone is saying and hoping, the surplus warheads will be delivering dim sum and tea bags and cleaned pressed laundry from Chinese laundrymen.

Please remember DF-41 got a very big brother coming up as well in case you think DF-41 not worthy enough to deliver dim sum and tea bags and cleaned laundry.
Russia’s RS-28 “Sarmat” ten-ton payload, rated as the most dangerous ICBM . Reportedly it may carry up to fifteen 350 kiloton warheads, or up to twenty-four of the new “Avangard” nuclear-armed Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) warheads. Sarmat will be dwarfed by Chinese new missile with even larger twenty-ton payload. That will be solid-fuel space-launch vehicle (SLV), and could form the basis for what might become the world’s largest “mobile” ICBM.

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But again, my guess is only as good as my guess since much uncertainty surround such matters.

After all , folks so certain of their infallibility can claim with straight face China got no more than 200++ nukes.
And only with design and knowledge stolen from America.

I do have many American friends with whom I have great respect for their decency and honesty.

There too, are Americans I know who are not in that category. Willing to nuke China if China do not buy enough soya beans or nuke China if China buy too much soya beans and who think it a great game to bully China just for the fun of it. And generally think China got 200++ nukes and easy meat to be crushed by mighty USA carriers and must kowtow to threats and provocations made by them or be nuked.

Those I termed as 'Muricans as against the vast majority of Americans who are generous and kind hearted, intelligent and respectful and want only peace.

 

[taxiya]

An extract of what I wrote below in post 57638 might shed some light on what DF51 might be derived from

But again, my guess is only as good as my guess since much uncertainty surround such matters.

I have no comment to the number of warheads in China.

However, I doubt your guess of the 20t payload claim of supposed DF-51 or its relationship (with DF-41). How did you reach that guess?

DF-41 is solid, if DF-51 has anything to do with DF-41, it must be solid. Solid fuel has low specific impulse than liquid fuel, especially as second stage. It can NEVER deliver more than a liquid fueled missile. Sarmat is liquid fuel delivering 10t, to do 20t as you guessed, DF-51 must be liquid, that makes DF-51 more related to DF-5, not DF-41. Also this DF51 must double the size of Sarmat (208t, 35.5m by 3.5m). It is simply not practical, can you image an ICBM approaching the size of LM-2E (462t, 49M by 7.8M)? There is no trick by anybody to overcome this specific impulse constraint.

On the one hand, many people are ignorant to downplay Chinese capability, on the other hand it is equally wrong to overestimate unrealistic achievement from China, after all we all play by the same physical law.

 

[taxiya]

@shanlung
I read the "new silo" article again. The dimention was claimed to be 6 meters. It is possible that the missile would have a diameter of 5m all the way to the top instead of LM-2E's 7.8m at first stage and 3.5m at the second stage. This makes is possible to have a double sized Sarmat by volume of fuel, but still taller than 35M, longer than 40M.

So the missile of such capacity is possible if China decided to do so. But it is certainly a DF-5 derivative, not DF-41. Remember LM-2 was a DF-5 derivative.

 

[shanlung]

However, I doubt your guess of the 20t payload claim of supposed DF-51 or its relationship (with DF-41). How did you reach that guess?

.

I dare not make a guess as that kind of guess will be tarred and feathered and driven out by villagers with pitchforks.
I plagiarised that number from no less than an Murican publication written by by

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Perhaps that was written there as a way to get more fundings or the guys who wrote that smoking something very mellow.
So please take it up with those two if you do not like what I plagiarised from them.

And as you seemed reluctant to click on links, let me do partial extract of that in italics for you and others fearing to click on links.
I even highlight for you where that twenty ton came from

Russia’s RS-28 “Sarmat” ten-ton payload liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be the world’s largest nuclear strike missile when it enters production, as early as 2021. Reportedly it may carry up to fifteen 350 kiloton warheads, or up to twenty-four of the new “Avangard” nuclear-armed Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) warheads.

But since mid–2017, Chinese sources have revealed details of an even larger twenty-ton payload solid-fuel space-launch vehicle (SLV) that could form the basis for what might become the world’s largest “mobile” ICBM.


In May 2017, the now closed Chinese website ChinaSpaceFlight.com offered the first depiction of the family of solid-fuel SLVs to be offered by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC). Seen in this image for the first time was the twenty-ton payload Kuaizhou-21, or KZ-21, and the KZ-21A, which adds two side boosters.

Likely since the middle of the last decade, CASIC had been given the go-ahead by the Chinese government and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop a line of solid-fuel SLVs. These would compete for domestic and international launch services with the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), which builds China’s family of Long March liquid-fueled SLVs and ICBMs, and its latest DF-31, DF-31A, and DF-41 mobile solid-fuel ICBMs.

So far, CASIC’s 1.2-meter diameter road-mobile Kauizhou-1/IA SLV, based on its DF-21 medium range ballistic missile, has made four successful launch missions through September 29, 2018. In 2019, CASIC may launch its first 2.2-meter diameter road-mobile and solid-fueled KZ-11 SLV, which has the same diameter as CASC’s DF-41 ICBM. The latter also forms the basis for CASC’s Long March-11 solid-fuel SLV, which has been launched five times as of December 21, 2018.

The KZ-21, however, features an unprecedented 4-meter diameter solid-fuel rocket motor, larger than the 3.7-meter diameter Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) developed by the former Thiokol Company to help launch the U.S. Space Shuttle. A ChinaDaily report from 25 December 2017 noted that CASIC would begin

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for the KZ-21 in February 2018.

 

[taxiya]

I dare not make a guess as that kind of guess will be tarred and feathered and driven out by villagers with pitchforks.
I plagiarised that number from no less than an Murican publication written by by

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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Perhaps that was written there as a way to get more fundings or the guys who wrote that smoking something very mellow.
So please take it up with those two if you do not like what I plagiarised from them.

And as you seemed reluctant to click on links, let me do partial extract of that in italics for you and others fearing to click on links.
I even highlight for you where that twenty ton came from

Russia’s RS-28 “Sarmat” ten-ton payload liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be the world’s largest nuclear strike missile when it enters production, as early as 2021. Reportedly it may carry up to fifteen 350 kiloton warheads, or up to twenty-four of the new “Avangard” nuclear-armed Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) warheads.

But since mid–2017, Chinese sources have revealed details of an even larger twenty-ton payload solid-fuel space-launch vehicle (SLV) that could form the basis for what might become the world’s largest “mobile” ICBM.


In May 2017, the now closed Chinese website ChinaSpaceFlight.com offered the first depiction of the family of solid-fuel SLVs to be offered by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC). Seen in this image for the first time was the twenty-ton payload Kuaizhou-21, or KZ-21, and the KZ-21A, which adds two side boosters.

Likely since the middle of the last decade, CASIC had been given the go-ahead by the Chinese government and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop a line of solid-fuel SLVs. These would compete for domestic and international launch services with the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), which builds China’s family of Long March liquid-fueled SLVs and ICBMs, and its latest DF-31, DF-31A, and DF-41 mobile solid-fuel ICBMs.

So far, CASIC’s 1.2-meter diameter road-mobile Kauizhou-1/IA SLV, based on its DF-21 medium range ballistic missile, has made four successful launch missions through September 29, 2018. In 2019, CASIC may launch its first 2.2-meter diameter road-mobile and solid-fueled KZ-11 SLV, which has the same diameter as CASC’s DF-41 ICBM. The latter also forms the basis for CASC’s Long March-11 solid-fuel SLV, which has been launched five times as of December 21, 2018.

The KZ-21, however, features an unprecedented 4-meter diameter solid-fuel rocket motor, larger than the 3.7-meter diameter Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) developed by the former Thiokol Company to help launch the U.S. Space Shuttle. A ChinaDaily report from 25 December 2017 noted that CASIC would begin

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for the KZ-21 in February 2018.

forget about it. See my other post 3243 where I have changed my mind.

 

[shanlung]

forget about it. See my other post 3243 where I have changed my mind.

I think our postings crossed each other at about same time of sending .
And solid fuel good for firing within 3-5 minutes.
And already tested and reported by China

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[shanlung]

I have no comment to the number of warheads in China.

.

What I wrote below in post 57638 was an extract. I had to truncate much of it to remain on the path here that postings not to exceed 1000 characters.

Perhaps what I wrote in that posting and discarded might shed some light on the number of nukes of China.
Again just my wild guess.

If you want war with China, then go and do that.
If war is not going to be nuclear and just naval battle, this will be the shape of that war.

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Which in all likelihood, lead to a nuclear war.
And if you think China got 260 nukes, think again.
Read below as to the nukes China is likely to have.

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China already got the world most deadly ICBM the DF-41 .

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The DF-41 is a three-stage solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile reported to have a maximum range of up to 15,000 kilometers (more than 9320 miles) and a top speed of Mach 25 (19,030 mph). It is said to be capable of carrying up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVs). Its launch preparation time is estimated to be between 3 to 5 minutes.
China has at least 100 DF-41s, operational and organised in 4 Brigades.
As by Jan 2017, Chinese media have reported the deployment of three brigades of DF-41 ICBMs. There is photographic evidence of a possible fourth brigade of DF-41 ICBMs on the Tibetan plateau. However, we have only counted the number of DF-41 ICBM TELs (ie. Transporter Erector Launcher).

Then also consider that while China got 200 ++ nukes as so claimed, there is also a strong possibility China got 2000 to 3000 U235/Pu cores AND 2000-3000 assemblies.
Without the cores inserted, no nukes, or just 200++ nukes. But in time of crisis, China can insert those 2 to 3000 cores into the assemblies in a matter of days. That the warheads delivered be sending more than just dim sum or General Tso sweet and sour chicken or cleaned pressed laundry.

So please, let there be peace.
No one will give a flying fuck as to why the many suns be shining on Earth or why that started.

 

[shanlung]

I wonder if the Chinese thermonuclear bomb done to the Yu-Min configuration got anything to do with the different yield as against USA thermonukes done to Ulam Teller configuration.
.
And that apparently the Yu-Min required a lot less maintenance than that of the Ulam Teller.

I tried but cannot find anything on the Yu-Min, unlike the ton of literature on the Ulam Teller.
Perhaps some folks here might guide me to Yu-Min configuration

Found something in my old postings done on Quora that might amused you all.
Needless to say , I was banned and killed off in Quora even though I wrote very politely and with respect there.
Together with other avators I subsequently got to create, and which were killed off too so that folks there can have fun rushing in where angels feared to tread.

And if ‘Muricans chose to attack China and have war with China, this will be the way that war will take place.

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China will never attack USA and start the war.
So how likely will it be that ‘Muricans decide to attack China and have that war?
Then you will get a war that is likely to lead to WW3.
You still looking forward to that WW3?
Still happy at steaming carriers in South China Sea that likely will escalate into WW3?
Still want to provoke wars with major countries that likely to escalate into WW3?
Will the quarrels and disagreements that lead to this war be relevant or even remembered once the war started?
Can this kind of war ever come to an end once started?
Isnt it so fucking stupid to even let the war start in the first place?
Isnt that other alternative a lot better?
Young men and women of both countries and all countries should smell roses, make love and drink and dine and laugh and go enjoy sunrises and sunsets and play with their kids and children.
How about remaining Be Nice Be Respectful and work together for a better world?
And let all those lethality toys remain toys to be admired like Hydrogen bombs . Seen and known, and never ever to be used in anger or sorrow.
Young men and women of both countries and all countries should smell roses, make love and drink and dine and laugh and go enjoy sunrises and sunsets and play with their kids and children.
China promised never be the first to use nuke
But if even one nuke land on China or Chinese forces, USA and all of USA bases around the world from Guam to Okinawa and Japan and Diego Garcia and Singapore and UK and Europe will become lakes and seas of molten glowing green and multicolored glass.
The irony is that more likely than not, China might well be the only country to have the thermonuclear bomb. China thermonuclear bombs are build to the Yu Min configuration . Which required very little maintenance. USA and Russia uses the Ulam Teller configuration requiring a lot of maintenance.
Each warhead needs to have about 200 milligrams of fresh tritium added every year. Here’s a pic showing W80s having their gas changed.

So how many of USA thermonukes are actually working in between the bouts of maintenance? Not likely you get the answer.

 

[Xizor]

Found something in my old postings done on Quora that might amused you all.
Needless to say , I was banned and killed off in Quora even though I wrote very politely and with respect there.
Together with other avators I subsequently got to create, and which were killed off too so that folks there can have fun rushing in where angels feared to tread.

And if ‘Muricans chose to attack China and have war with China, this will be the way that war will take place.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China will never attack USA and start the war.
So how likely will it be that ‘Muricans decide to attack China and have that war?
Then you will get a war that is likely to lead to WW3.
You still looking forward to that WW3?
Still happy at steaming carriers in South China Sea that likely will escalate into WW3?
Still want to provoke wars with major countries that likely to escalate into WW3?
Will the quarrels and disagreements that lead to this war be relevant or even remembered once the war started?
Can this kind of war ever come to an end once started?
Isnt it so fucking stupid to even let the war start in the first place?
Isnt that other alternative a lot better?
Young men and women of both countries and all countries should smell roses, make love and drink and dine and laugh and go enjoy sunrises and sunsets and play with their kids and children.
How about remaining Be Nice Be Respectful and work together for a better world?
And let all those lethality toys remain toys to be admired like Hydrogen bombs . Seen and known, and never ever to be used in anger or sorrow.
Young men and women of both countries and all countries should smell roses, make love and drink and dine and laugh and go enjoy sunrises and sunsets and play with their kids and children.
China promised never be the first to use nuke
But if even one nuke land on China or Chinese forces, USA and all of USA bases around the world from Guam to Okinawa and Japan and Diego Garcia and Singapore and UK and Europe will become lakes and seas of molten glowing green and multicolored glass.
The irony is that more likely than not, China might well be the only country to have the thermonuclear bomb. China thermonuclear bombs are build to the Yu Min configuration . Which required very little maintenance. USA and Russia uses the Ulam Teller configuration requiring a lot of maintenance.
Each warhead needs to have about 200 milligrams of fresh tritium added every year. Here’s a pic showing W80s having their gas changed.

So how many of USA thermonukes are actually working in between the bouts of maintenance? Not likely you get the answer.

China is constrained by the same limitations and pain as US is in regards to maintaining its Nuclear forces. To be Honest, We don't have any evidence of Yu-Min configuration other than the reality that the name pops-up from time to time, when the Chinese nuclear warheads are discussed,and almost always ending with a cliffhanger - "China has a really special configuration that does things really different by doing away with the need for Tritium and such..."
The evidences of Yu-Min are less abundant than the evidences of Anti-Gravity Aircraft and UFOs flying over the skies of Area 51. Of course, it could point to the extreme and successful chinese efforts in maintaining state secrets; But since research has never stopped on Nuclear power ( for civilian and military use) and since so much money has been poured on them, what are the chances that the Yu-Min configuration has been discovered by other nations including U.S ? How are you sure that U.S and others aren't aware of this "miracle" configuration? If the configuration is very advantageous, why hasn't U.S tried to extract the secret by other tools ( espionage) ? It is quite inconceivable for me to think of a country that could divert its fiat currency (that it could print out like coupon tickets) billions into secret projects and other stuff, not attempting to acquire this very advantageous Chinese configuration.
It could be argued that U.S and U.S.S.R were so invested in the Ullam-Teller design and so many warheads were made based on the configuration, that they didn't care for the very special Chinese configuration. It could also be argued that both these countries underestimated China and looked down on its achievement as of little value. They might have seen in China and it creating a hush-hush secret configuration as akin to a poor farmer getting really happy about finding a diamond in the field.

We all know China has enormous will-power. We know how China, a poor,desperate,war ravaged, famine infected country created the bomb and attempted to keep up with the leading powers. I have no doubts about Chinese Nuclear readiness. But I do have doubts about the "Yu-Min" configuration.

For all the chest thumping, I don't buy into the beliefs of the U.S defence enthusiasts that their country is in possession of some super advanced next generation technology hidden under secret military bases(Area 51 hype, basically). Anti-Gravity drive, Teleportation, Aliens ...the list is endless. These are merely hollywood propaganda and hot-air. That doesn't mean these secret bases are not testing new technology BUT over-hyping the accomplishments and inflating it into a larger-than-life balloon is actually a disservice to the scientists and engineers who works in the Defence R&D establishment of U.S. It is a disservice to science,even. I chuckle every-time when I read about how U.S has this "revolutionary device" and that and does not show it to anyone because " super-secret-ultimate-weapons ya'know".

The reason why I dragged in the U.S example is this- since we don't know much about the configuration and since its details are very sparse - Wouldn't it be better if we were really careful about any attempts to "inflate" things WAY beyond certain limits? If it is a secret, so be it. But we have to be really careful in the assumption exercise we engage in when talking about this configuration.

 

[shanlung]

First of all, contrary to what most here might think, I do like USA and Americanism very much.
Perhaps folks here might browse at what I got to say about myself and decide that for themselves.
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/i-actually-do-love-usa-very-much.t8634/

I am actually far better known in Internet and Facebook for much more peaceful topics. And those are not on dim sum, wulung tea , General Tso sweet & sour chicken or cleaned laundry.

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USA been sniffing up the radionuclides of all nuke tests, especially done in China by China. Enough to know
3 stage thermonuclear explosions been set off. Those radionuclides that was sniffed up told them the end result, and not the intermediate results that created that Big Bang.

As to how that was done will be guesses same as the formula for CocaCola can be guessed at but not known despite buying a thousand bottles of Coca Cola and drinking and testing them.

It had been said "Now some outside physicists speculate that the Taylor-Uram configuration is a "reflection implosion" and the Yu-sensitive configuration is a "refraction implosion". Both of them aim to convert X-ray into heat energy, but they are different in engineering design." That might well be a wild guess from a wild man.
I admit while I do know English well, I have no clue of what I read which I take as another step in the dark. Like the 5 blind men feeling different parts of elephant, or even think they feeling the elephant , and trying to figure out what is that elephant. I am not even certain if they might be feeling an elephant in the first place.

I do have a feeling top nuke minds in USA and Russia now might have a good guess at the Yu Min configuration. Might even got that down to mathematical model and tested on supercomputer how that worked and worked in the supercomputer.

But adhering to the total test ban on nuclear bomb testing, they not about to make thermonuclear bomb to a design that they had not tested for real and abandon the design that they known for sure will work..

And they are as prepared to write on that as the Chinese themselves.

Most interestingly, USA top nuke makers been in touch and exchange visits with Chinese top nuke makers, and even to having friendly chats with Yu Min himself.
For those without paranoid fear of clicking on URLs, take a look at this as food for your thoughts.

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