Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The latest estimate from DOD China military report Still way to small From Tom Shugart
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Trump apparently talked to Putin and mentioned that China wants to join in on a trilateral nuclear arms reduction treaty. Who can believe Trump when he lies about what other people say and want. Just today China had to make a public statement to counter Trump saying that a trade agreement was near. So why only the US, Russia, and China? When the US was using China as an excuse for abandoning the intermediate-range missile ban treaty with Russia, why isn't India included in the mix? They want China to commit while leaving all of China's rivals in Asia to freely make them. France and Great Britain have just as many nukes as China does so why aren't they included? In a proposed hypersonic weapons ban US allies with the technological level to research and develop hypersonic weapons if they wanted to would be not included in this ban on the rest of the world. So US allies would be free to develop them but no one else. China having nukes is the only thing that has prevented the US from nuking China since the beginning of the Cold War. There have been at least five occasions since the end of WWII where the US actually considered using nukes on China. The US only agrees to something where they will still have an advantage. China's nuke arsenal is only in the hundreds while the US is in the thousands and China is the one that has to eliminate? This supposed treaty is not going to level the playing field because that goes against the US advantage and Americans only feel comfortable when they're in a superior position not on a level playing field. The US is afraid of China's Belt and Road initiative because they don't want a bunch of independent from the US economies out there. Right now there's only China that can say "No!" to the US. When the US's attention is divided, they can't get anything done. A multipolar world is in China's best interests. It's not the US's. The US wants its nukes because it wants to do what it's worried other countries will do to the US. If that hypocrisy wasn't true then they would be for a nuke weapons ban for the entire world so no one could do that to the US. It's a nuclear weapons ban on the entire world or no nuclear weapons reduction for anyone at all.
Hyperwarp
Captain
If Russian and the USA is willing limit their nuclear arsenal to 500 warheads, then sure.....
Well, China doesn’t really talk about how many nukes they have. Given unrestricted access to uranium and maintaining MAD with both superpowers in the Cold War, it’s likely to be a lot compared to most other countries.
A plurality if not a majority of those nukes would be mounted in silo DF-5s. Built to destroy the Soviet Union during the height of tensions in the 1980s, these missiles have insufficient range to cover South America and the East Coast. Reducing them in favor of more DF-41 would not be a big issue.
The real issue is with the ban on hypersonic weapons, which is why no nation would sign this treaty. Hypersonic weapons are the logical next step in warfare. One might as well ban monoplanes and restrict everyone to biplanes after WW1!
I doubt it is malicious intent as you think, since none of the allies who are exempt from the treaty have the tech base remotely close to Russia/China/US anyways. Instead, it’s an attempt to make up for shortfalls in hypersonic weaponry and maybe give US a chance to catch up in secret. America is still struggling to master supersonic weapons. The new developments are going too fast for their comfort here.
But arms control treaties only work in banning unnecessary stuff, not halting development. Trump does not know that.
Hypersonic weapons required to evade the ABM systems, and to avoid detection / trajectory assessment.
China Pu239 stockpile can be estimated quite well up to around 2000, question is the purpose of extension at 32°29'41.69" N 105°35'28.89" E in the past decade.
Something interesting at the Chinese plutonium plant under construction in 2010
after construction
China Pu239 stockpile can be estimated quite well up to around 2000, question is the purpose of extension at 32°29'41.69" N 105°35'28.89" E in the past decade.
Something interesting at the Chinese plutonium plant under construction in 2010
after construction
The whole thing started by US abandoning the treaty regarding IRBM and SRBM between US and USSR/Russia. China's IRBM and SRBM are aiming at US carrier groups and bases in pacific. Unless US carriers are pulled back to west coast of US mainland and all bases (for B-2 bombers) in the region are abandoned, there is no way China would consider anything that will put a cap on its IRBM/SRBM.
US administration (not only Trump) always try to take out the context when pushing their peace "loving" agenda, without talking about their aggressive acts or assets. North Korea is just another example, demanding NK to disarm without stopping their preparation of regime change and forward deployment. Trump's talk is just talk, nothing worth consideration.
Besides, I have a feeling that China will never make a weapon treaty like the US/USSR/Russia did. It is IMO a principle that disarmament is based on trust and act, not paper. Chinese thinking is as follows, if one is much stronger, treaty won't prevent one do anything illegal, if one can not sustain the act, one will stop doing it regardless treaty or not. In practice, when China is/was weak, China makes much less nukes without the American's complaining, when China is capable, China will do everything as it see fit regardless American complain. The message is "if you feel uncomfortable today, you should first reflect my uncomfortable past and now."
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The way Americans would look at a nuke number limit is the US had to get rid of a lot while China had to get rid of little. That would be unfair to the US.
The mistake people make about the US is thinking Americans look at everyone as equals in this world. They don't. Americans see themselves as the good guys just like in a movie and because of that if anyone questions, challenges, and/or disobeys them, it must be because they're the bad guys. Good people will follow good. Bad people don't. They also believe people who are the bad guys know they are villains of the world. So in any treaty it's all about the bad guys giving up while the good guys don't have give up anything because they're the good guys. Why would the good guys have to give up anything when all that they do and have works for the good for everyone?
If you've read my posts I write about how Americans don't like negotiation. Negotiation is a sign of weakness to them because it's about acknowledging and dealing with concerns on both sides. Why would a good guy have to negotiate especially with evil? Negotiation means evil gets their way when good must triumph over evil entirely.
The problem is Americans think they're the good guys when they're not by their own logic. They ignore all the bad things they've done in history. They ignore that they do what they tell others not to do because it's wrong. They accuse China of being a war-mongering state while they're attacking and bombing different other countries every year. China hasn't dropped a bomb in decades. All you need to know is when they kill people in other countries, they're doing it for the good for everyone in the world. China is evil because it kills for its own self-interests when they haven't even dropped a bomb on anyone.
Back in 1998, James Byrd Jr. was killed by three white supremacists on a remote Texas dirt road. Back then it got a lot of national attention. I was listening to a radio talk show when a woman calls in and complains how come Asian racism doesn't get any attention? Maybe because an Asian didn't drag a black man chained behind a truck only to stop when there were no body parts left to drag? Yes I've mentioned this incident before and I've posted this verbatim on comment sections all over in response to any charge that Asians are more racist than whites and it's my most censored and deleted comment on the internet. It's true, it's not a lie but it gets deleted because it makes white people look bad. That's how they think they're the good guys because they delete the bad things they've done. It's ironic that the only people who ever literally tried take over the world just like a bad guy in a movie are seen as the good guys in the real world today.
That's why also Americans can never admit to being wrong. If they admit they can be wrong, they could've been wrong the past. They can be wrong today and more important they can be wrong in the future. They don't want to be questioned. They don't want to be challenged. They want only blind obedience. They're the good guys that can never be wrong so obey because if you don't, then you must be evil and they have the right to act against evil because they're doing it for the good of everyone in the world.
The reason why they're the "good guys" is because they have the power and control the institutions to make sure the world hears nothing else. They accuse China of not following a rules-based world order. They made up the rules because they have the power to do that. It was the world that decided these things just as much as the only countries in the world that can play in the World Series is Canada and the US. China has to trust their international institutions to be fair? It's all about accumulating power for yourself and not following their rules-based institutions they created to make sure they're in power if a country want to protect itself.
That's why any arms reduction deal has to be all in the world or none. Anything else is about the US maintaining advantage while weakening everyone else.
The mistake people make about the US is thinking Americans look at everyone as equals in this world. They don't. Americans see themselves as the good guys just like in a movie and because of that if anyone questions, challenges, and/or disobeys them, it must be because they're the bad guys. Good people will follow good. Bad people don't. They also believe people who are the bad guys know they are villains of the world. So in any treaty it's all about the bad guys giving up while the good guys don't have give up anything because they're the good guys. Why would the good guys have to give up anything when all that they do and have works for the good for everyone?
If you've read my posts I write about how Americans don't like negotiation. Negotiation is a sign of weakness to them because it's about acknowledging and dealing with concerns on both sides. Why would a good guy have to negotiate especially with evil? Negotiation means evil gets their way when good must triumph over evil entirely.
The problem is Americans think they're the good guys when they're not by their own logic. They ignore all the bad things they've done in history. They ignore that they do what they tell others not to do because it's wrong. They accuse China of being a war-mongering state while they're attacking and bombing different other countries every year. China hasn't dropped a bomb in decades. All you need to know is when they kill people in other countries, they're doing it for the good for everyone in the world. China is evil because it kills for its own self-interests when they haven't even dropped a bomb on anyone.
Back in 1998, James Byrd Jr. was killed by three white supremacists on a remote Texas dirt road. Back then it got a lot of national attention. I was listening to a radio talk show when a woman calls in and complains how come Asian racism doesn't get any attention? Maybe because an Asian didn't drag a black man chained behind a truck only to stop when there were no body parts left to drag? Yes I've mentioned this incident before and I've posted this verbatim on comment sections all over in response to any charge that Asians are more racist than whites and it's my most censored and deleted comment on the internet. It's true, it's not a lie but it gets deleted because it makes white people look bad. That's how they think they're the good guys because they delete the bad things they've done. It's ironic that the only people who ever literally tried take over the world just like a bad guy in a movie are seen as the good guys in the real world today.
That's why also Americans can never admit to being wrong. If they admit they can be wrong, they could've been wrong the past. They can be wrong today and more important they can be wrong in the future. They don't want to be questioned. They don't want to be challenged. They want only blind obedience. They're the good guys that can never be wrong so obey because if you don't, then you must be evil and they have the right to act against evil because they're doing it for the good of everyone in the world.
The reason why they're the "good guys" is because they have the power and control the institutions to make sure the world hears nothing else. They accuse China of not following a rules-based world order. They made up the rules because they have the power to do that. It was the world that decided these things just as much as the only countries in the world that can play in the World Series is Canada and the US. China has to trust their international institutions to be fair? It's all about accumulating power for yourself and not following their rules-based institutions they created to make sure they're in power if a country want to protect itself.
That's why any arms reduction deal has to be all in the world or none. Anything else is about the US maintaining advantage while weakening everyone else.
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Equation
Lieutenant General
That's what religious indoctrination institutions plus a narrative bias control media can do.
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