Definitely. At least a brigade paraded, 8 launchers probably. It'd be a surprise if 16 launchers are paraded, though quite possible. Perhaps DF-5 and DF-31 won't be paraded at all, since those are already a known quantity, and their cost-effectiveness is less, to drag them out to a parade, essentially just repeating what was shown previously.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The TEL of the DF-10A cruise missile in an underground fortification.
From Henri K blog
From Henri K blog
Considering that China hasn't produced pu239 in the past years they could have only u235 based warheads.
Those are heavier than the pu based, means there can be less warheads on the Chinese missiles than on the similar Russian ones.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
The atomic weight difference between Pu-239 and U-235 isn't that great, and when considering that those two elements are used only in the primary stage & second-stage sparkplug of a typical two-stage thermonuclear weapon, I doubt that the difference in mass would be anywhere near significant. A far more important factor would be the design of the weapon.
It is not about the weight difference, but critical mass.
U235: 52 kg , Pu239:10 kg
There is different number of neutrons from each fission, and the cross section is different as well for fast neutrons.
Because of the mass difference the explosive needs to be bigger( to accelerate the material to the same speed) , the casing has to be bigger, the neuron reflector has to be bigger as well.
The biggest energy coming from the secondary, so the critical mass weight doesn't increase linearly the warhead mass. But it is safe to say the warhead mass will increase somewhere between 15-40%.
The number of warheads will decrease by this number.
This mass can not be compensated by anything, it is coming from the basic physic.
Only solution is to start the chinese pu generating reactors, but there is no visible activity around them by the satellite images.
Actually, they dismantled cooling pounds .
There was a big building that they made there, but there is no sign of any activity.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
How do you know because most Chinese nuclear facility is buried underground in Mianyang (Sichuan province)
They dismantle it because it is an old plant outdated The new one is out of sight
Enrichment plant can be built underground just ask the Iranian. Boy you need to update your knowledge and don't be just gullible reading all those China basher website
China has the largest uranium mine in the world and built facilities all over the world
Even Iran use u238 and you think Iranian is more advance than China?
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There was two pu239 plant in China, the original in the desert is out of operation, there is no sign of activity.
The second plant is in use, it has a reprocessing plant next to it.
There is same building activity around it, they contentiously built protection, drainage and new buildings.
They dismantled parts of the cooling ponds, it decrease the cooling capacity of the reactor.
The centrifuges are easy to move underground, but the graphite reactor and reprocessing plant is not.
And the thermal emission of the reactor can not be masked, and it show the amount of PU anyway.
So, the only one that can be fooled with an underground is the newspapers and me , but the NSA and GCHQ will see it.
Yes, enrichment plant can be built, but the point is ( if you would be so kind to read my previous text) is that the U235 based warhead will increase the warhead mass by 15-40%, and decrease the number of warheads by the same number.
No one can use U238 in bomb : D
That is an even isotope, so it is not fissile by neutron absorption.
Usable (realistic) bomb material is the u235, pu239 and u233.
Finally , it is NOT China bashing.
It is a discussion about what they doing.
If China using pu for the warhead then everyone can see the number of warheads.
They can use U236 for warheads, that will increase the cost of delivery vehicles, but will mask the actual number of nuclear weapons.
So, what us the strategy of China?
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Show me the reference the name the location etc Just saying this and that has no meaning Even this is a forum you have to show the source of your statement Where is your source?
I find ridiculous that China is less advance than Iranian. You can also generate Plutonium from nuclear reactor
The difference between nuclear pellet for power and for nuclear bomb is degree of enrichment So China has 20 to 30 nuclear power plant now Some of it civilian but some it military so it is not accountable
And I say they have extensive nuclear mining and preprocessing plant I lost my reference because my computer crash
Uranium has two isotopes—235 and 238. Uranium 235 powers both nuclear reactors and nuclear bombs, but it is less than 1 percent of naturally occurring uranium. The concentration of uranium 235 needs to be increased to about 5 percent (low-enriched uranium) for nuclear reactor fuel and to about 90 percent (highly enriched uranium) for nuclear bombs. This process is called enrichment.
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Basic working principle of the nuclear weapon making:
Three way to go, U235, PU239 or U233.
First require ONLY enrichment , but the U235 is the WORST possible weapon material.
It needs 52kg of critical mass vs 10kg of Pu239, means the weapon will be heavy,and expensive to deliver ( and the delivery system generated 90% of the weapon cost historically ).
Second needs enrichment AND reactors AND reprocessing.
You making highly enriched seeder roads, preferably with very high u235 content(80%) , and surround them with depleted uranium blanket.
You have to remove in every few weeks the blanket, and reprocess it , otherwise there will be too much non fissionable Pu240 in the bomb material.
The third one is with thorium instead of the depleted uranium, it is a bit more expensive than thee Pu way, and the blanket can be contaminated with high gamma emitters.
So, China first Pu reactor is here :
40°14'06.17" N 97°22'20.37" E
The second one, is here :
32°29'41.73" N 105°35'28.89" E
West to it you can see the reprocessing plant.
if you check it with the google earth then on the 2004 pic four cooling water reservoir visible, on the new only two.
There is visible activity on the reactor and reprocessing site, but there is no visible cooling water flow on any images, or any cooling water vapour ( and there is nothing that can be cooling tower anyway).
If you follow the images backwards then it is impossible to found any working water intake from the river.
I don't think that they using direct air cooling for the reactor, the first one in the desert used cooling water .
Hyperwarp
Captain
If Pu-239 is an issue, then what about smaller warheads with lesser yields? 10x 90KT warheads on a DF-41 seems to be an adequate deterrent.
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