It might not DF26B at all it might be test of JL3
Yesterday on the Weibo (Chinese Twitter) account of the Chinese Ministry of Defense appeared
publication, mentioning a "recent combat assessment of a new missile" of Chinese rocket forces in a certain maritime area Of the Gulf of Bohai.
Information has quickly gone around the web in China, and many assumptions have been made about it. Many say it is the
DF-26B shot that we spoke about two days ago in the "
", others say New SLBM missile fired by a nuclear submarine launcher, evoking the name of the
JL-3 . We will therefore analyze some of these assumptions here.
But first of all, let's review some basic elements. For example, where exactly is the Bohai Sea, and what does the publication of the Chinese Ministry of Defense specifically say?
Communicating through the Bohai Strait with the Yellow Sea to the east and to which it is a part, the Gulf of Bohaï is bounded on the south by the Shandong Peninsula and to the east by that of the Liaodong which separates it from the Gulf of Bohai. Korea. On the west coast of the Gulf, for example, is the only shipyard of Chinese nuclear submarines, or the training center for naval airborne pilots of the Chinese navy.
The Gulf of Bohai
As for the publication of the Chinese Ministry of Defense, it is, indeed, rather strange. The title of the publication read "Response to journalists' question by the Ministry of Defense Information Office", although it is not known whether this response was given at a press conference and Asked the question and when.
The question was: "According to our information, the rocket forces of the Chinese army recently conducted a missile test firing, can you confirm that? ".
And the response stated: "In order to improve the troops' ability to carry out their missions and to deal effectively with threats to national security, the rocket force unit (s) Fighting on a new missile weapon according to the annual training plan, which has achieved the desired objectives. ".
One has the more impression that this is a formal statement than a real question answer.
Whatever it is, what is it? Here are a few hypotheses that can be seen from here and there:
A shot of the new DF-26B variant of the Chinese long-range AShBM
Many Chinese Internet users associate this ballistic announcement in Bohai Bay with the wrecks of the DF-26B, a new variant of the IRBM / AShBM long range DF-26, which were found late April in the Siziwang banner, In Inner Mongolia.
The wrecks of DF-26B on an amateur video posted on the internet last April 23rd.
At first glance, this hypothesis seems very sexy. There has been a trial shot of DF-26B recently, it's a variant of a ballistic missile capable of hitting large naval targets like aircraft carriers, and the publication mentions a rocket force test in the sea.
All the ingredients seem to be together for the scoop.
Now, if you open a map and look at the location of the Siziwang banner, where the wrecks on the 1st or 2nd floor of the famous E / ADF-26B were found, compared to the Bohai Gulf, you quickly realize that It is a bit complicated for the missile of more than 3,000 kilometers of range to leave its first or second floor in Inner Mongolia and fall back into the Bohai Sea.
From the Siziwang banner where the DF-26B wrecks were found at the Bohai Gulf.
In order for this to happen, it was necessary to launch on Mongolian soil, that is to say in the neighboring country, and that the missile flies above the intense population areas of Hebei province ( Around the capital Beijing).
In other words, it is a very risky operation - Not impossible, but the game is not worth the candle.
A missile shot from the Korla site, or from the West.
It is a hypothesis that one of our readers spoke yesterday, wondering if it is possible that the missile (it referred especially to the DF-26B quoted above) can be fired from the launch site Of Korla, located in Xinjiang province where Chinese anti-ballistic missiles are launched, for example, or from another ballistic testing center in the West, such as the JSLC or the TSLC.
Technically, this seems to be possible. If we trace a straight line joining the two ends of Korla and the northern part of the Bohai Sea, it actually crosses the Siziwang banner.
From Korla to the gulf of Bohai, passing by the banner of Siziwang.
But if it is actually the DF-26B in question that was launched from Korla, then the fallout zones will be much further west (left on the map below) and not the Siziwang banner .
Moreover, no fallout zone is reported in Bohai Bay to receive the head of the missile, for example.
And this shooting direction, from west to east, is unusual in Chinese ballistics trials, which always start from east to west to benefit from the monitoring facilities rather located in the west of the country.
A shot from AShBM DF-21D from Northeast China
The Chinese rocket forces have already been firing their anti-ship ballistic missile into the Bohai Gulf in the past. One can quote for example the two (supposed) shots of DF-21D in the month of November 2015.
The maritime area closed to navigation during the tests of DF-21D in November 2015.
According to a navigation alert issued by the Maritime Safety Administration of Liaoning, a maritime area was banned from any ship from 20 to 22 April in the Bohai Gulf for "military missions", See in yellow on this diagram:
Although we believe this area was reserved for the certification of the 6th promotion of the embarked pilots and the LSO of the aircraft carrier
Liaoning (see our file "
"of April 24), but we can not completely dismiss this hypothesis.
