I consider the common estimates for the number of Chinese ICBMs as not confirmed. When we just look at this one thread and see how many photos are circulating of different types that can reach the US we have to conclude that far more are a distinct possibility. Most of the time such vehicles are not photographed or moving at night or in areas which are not accessible to civilians.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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That then is the minimum nuclear weapons deterrent strategy that China is playing at the moment. Unless there had been a major security breach, no one knows exactly how many road or maybe even rail mobile intercontinental ballistics missile China has and that forces the enemy to think twice before launching a pre-emptive strike. To challenge an enemy by having more nuclear weapons then he has like the Soviet Union would be an un acceptable drain on the country. I do not agree in ramping up the number of nucllear war heads but more should be done on the survivablity of the nuclear forces by investing in the triad and investment on hypersonic delivery vehicle, which I think China is focusing on. All these photos we are gitting may not be the accidental but are intentional leaks.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
China has enough warheads. It's ICBMs it needs more of.
Even at the lower end of the establishment of 300 warheads (bare in mind that the overwhelming majority of these are multi-megaton strategic beasties rather than kiloton-range tactical warheads), and even if half of them hit their targets, that's 150 major US cities wiped off the map. Which would be a mortal blown to the US.
Factor in the US counter strike and we are well into nuclear winter territory here. The estimates I have seen is near total blocking out of sunlight for 3 years, and sub-zero global temperatures for 10, for the entire planet.
That would bring about a mass extinction level event not see since the comet strike that ended the dinosaurs.
Nuclear war is unthinkable because none of us will be around to think about the sheer stupidity of it afterwards. It will be the cockroach peoples who might end up wondering just what the hell we were thinking when we ended ourselves.
Even at the lower end of the establishment of 300 warheads (bare in mind that the overwhelming majority of these are multi-megaton strategic beasties rather than kiloton-range tactical warheads), and even if half of them hit their targets, that's 150 major US cities wiped off the map. Which would be a mortal blown to the US.
Factor in the US counter strike and we are well into nuclear winter territory here. The estimates I have seen is near total blocking out of sunlight for 3 years, and sub-zero global temperatures for 10, for the entire planet.
That would bring about a mass extinction level event not see since the comet strike that ended the dinosaurs.
Nuclear war is unthinkable because none of us will be around to think about the sheer stupidity of it afterwards. It will be the cockroach peoples who might end up wondering just what the hell we were thinking when we ended ourselves.
Hyperwarp
Captain
Unfortunately right now, those 'beasties' can be carried as a single warhead only on the DF-31 series (1 Megaton yield). DF-5B could carry up to 3 or a single 4+ Megaton yield warhead. DF-5B could carry a maximum of 8x smaller 20kt to 150kt warheads and up to 3x on the DF-31B. It is unclear whether the DF-31A can carry up to 3x 20kt warheads. It has always been classified as single warhead.
Right now the worry is a US 1st strike using tactical nukes and not about city busting. The 20 silo-based DF-5 capable of carrying 3x 1 MT warheads even with all the dummy silos are going to be very vulnerable. All of them might get wiped out. The counter-strike by the PLARF will depend heavily on DF-31A and DF-31B.
But, US is constantly building up its mid-course interceptors both land and now sea. Soon they will be able to deploy multiple KKV with a single interceptor. There will be up to 40 interceptors next year in Alaska.
Despite extreme difficulties in mid-course interception, those large single warheards on the DF-31A are still going to be more vulnerable than the MIRVed DF-31B. There would be about 24x DF-31A and maybe 6x DF-31B right now. You see how the effectiveness of a PLARF 2nd strike beginning to shrink? There won't be 150 large megaton range warheads reaching the US.
This is why they really need the DF-ZF HGV and the DF-41. Even with a single small warhead, DF-31A armed with an HGV will be able deter any current BMD, while the 6x - 10x Megaton range warheads on the DF-41 will give greater survuvability against BMD.
PS: I deliberately left out the 094/094A with JL-2. One reason is the survuvability of the 094/094A itself and whether the JL-2 has active warheads as of now.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
You think that those anti ballistic missile will work 100%. Well too bad because the Ground based anti missile system work only 50% of the times
And they are easily duped by dummy warhead. there is no known sensor that can differentiate between dummy and real warhead
I am curious how do you know the number of missile that China had . Because they also hid many of them underground
I know SOC did some work on it but it hasn't been updated for years now
I think you believe too much of western propaganda. No body know how much war head or missile the Chinese had. Are you privy to the most secret of Chinese arsenal I don't think so so stop bad mouthing Chinese nuclear force We will know it when WW III start
I really can't understand why Chinese warhead hasn't grown for 30 years when in every other aspect Chinese arsenal grow exponentially
This from a government who derive their legitimacy from guarding Chinese national integrity
. Are they crazy or what?,I know most of those number come from FAS because they have agenda of nuclear disarmament and having smaller Chinese nuclear arsenal fit their agenda
And they are easily duped by dummy warhead. there is no known sensor that can differentiate between dummy and real warhead
I am curious how do you know the number of missile that China had . Because they also hid many of them underground
I know SOC did some work on it but it hasn't been updated for years now
I think you believe too much of western propaganda. No body know how much war head or missile the Chinese had. Are you privy to the most secret of Chinese arsenal I don't think so so stop bad mouthing Chinese nuclear force We will know it when WW III start
I really can't understand why Chinese warhead hasn't grown for 30 years when in every other aspect Chinese arsenal grow exponentially
This from a government who derive their legitimacy from guarding Chinese national integrity
. Are they crazy or what?,I know most of those number come from FAS because they have agenda of nuclear disarmament and having smaller Chinese nuclear arsenal fit their agenda
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PikeCowboy
Junior Member
wasn't there some ex-politburo member's brother who defected to the US some time ago with a bunch of classified documents to guarantee his brother's life?
it's possible china's tally of nuclear warheads and missiles were in there... what's the likelihood a politburo member knows the number off the top of his head?
it's possible china's tally of nuclear warheads and missiles were in there... what's the likelihood a politburo member knows the number off the top of his head?
Hopefully, this signals a change in the policy. Anonymous GT articles are usually quite good indication to internal discourse.
China cannot hesitate on nuclear buildup
Source:Global Times Published: 2016/12/23 19:53:39
US President-elect tweeted on Thursday that "the US must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability," hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to strengthen Russia's nuclear power.
According to statistics, the US has 7,100 nuclear warheads and Russia has 7,300. Although Russia's conventional military capabilities have fallen behind that of NATO, its nuclear arsenal has ensured its military superpower status and enabled Moscow to confront Washington in Ukraine and Syria.
Putin said Russia needs to bolster nuclear forces that could "reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defense system." The US is unlikely to ignore this message.
Some Chinese feel that China should not be part of the "nuclear arms race" between the US and Russia. However, as the focus of the global strategic competition gradually shifts toward the US and China, it would be difficult for Beijing to stay away.
A common misinterpretation is that nuclear weapons will not be used and therefore are a waste of resources. Yet, we believe that Russia is using its nuclear weapons everyday as a strategic deterrence to the US.
China doesn't have to join in the "nuclear arms race" but we do need to redefine our nuclear arsenal "sufficiency." The US already views China as its top competitor and it would be na?ve to believe it could survive in the intermediate zone of global power competition.
China's nuclear weapons must be "sufficient" to deter the US when it flexes its military muscle, as well as to convince the US that the PLA will strike back without hesitation in face of military provocation. The US and its allies need to believe that whichever of their Asian-Pacific military bases are used for launching attacks on China, it will meet destructive retaliation.
For Chinese, the biggest US threat comes from its military. Such a threat can gradually corrode China's social confidence.
We hope for a sound development of future Sino-US relations, and that both countries can resolve their disputes with a cooperative attitude. However, some signals coming from the Trump team have warned us that the possibility of a crisis cannot be ruled out. The better we prepare for that day, the more likely it is for us to avoid such a confrontation.
With both the US and Russia believing that their nuclear arsenals are "not enough," it's imperative for China to speed up the development of its nuclear weapons including Dongfeng-41 missiles. We must not hesitate or be concerned about the reactions from the West. China is at the center of global geopolitics, and there is no room for hesitation on nuclear deterrence.
China cannot hesitate on nuclear buildup
Source:Global Times Published: 2016/12/23 19:53:39
US President-elect tweeted on Thursday that "the US must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability," hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to strengthen Russia's nuclear power.
According to statistics, the US has 7,100 nuclear warheads and Russia has 7,300. Although Russia's conventional military capabilities have fallen behind that of NATO, its nuclear arsenal has ensured its military superpower status and enabled Moscow to confront Washington in Ukraine and Syria.
Putin said Russia needs to bolster nuclear forces that could "reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defense system." The US is unlikely to ignore this message.
Some Chinese feel that China should not be part of the "nuclear arms race" between the US and Russia. However, as the focus of the global strategic competition gradually shifts toward the US and China, it would be difficult for Beijing to stay away.
A common misinterpretation is that nuclear weapons will not be used and therefore are a waste of resources. Yet, we believe that Russia is using its nuclear weapons everyday as a strategic deterrence to the US.
China doesn't have to join in the "nuclear arms race" but we do need to redefine our nuclear arsenal "sufficiency." The US already views China as its top competitor and it would be na?ve to believe it could survive in the intermediate zone of global power competition.
China's nuclear weapons must be "sufficient" to deter the US when it flexes its military muscle, as well as to convince the US that the PLA will strike back without hesitation in face of military provocation. The US and its allies need to believe that whichever of their Asian-Pacific military bases are used for launching attacks on China, it will meet destructive retaliation.
For Chinese, the biggest US threat comes from its military. Such a threat can gradually corrode China's social confidence.
We hope for a sound development of future Sino-US relations, and that both countries can resolve their disputes with a cooperative attitude. However, some signals coming from the Trump team have warned us that the possibility of a crisis cannot be ruled out. The better we prepare for that day, the more likely it is for us to avoid such a confrontation.
With both the US and Russia believing that their nuclear arsenals are "not enough," it's imperative for China to speed up the development of its nuclear weapons including Dongfeng-41 missiles. We must not hesitate or be concerned about the reactions from the West. China is at the center of global geopolitics, and there is no room for hesitation on nuclear deterrence.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
As I said, it's ICBMs China needs to invest in in a big way, not necessarily warheads. Although they may also need/want to build some new gen MIRV warheads if they are going to invest big in nuclear forces.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Nice video and write up. Kyle DF 31 might not has the range but DF 41 does has the range
On January 1, 2016, the People's Republic of China renamed its Second Artillery Corps as the Rocket Force. A year later, Chinese state television has a retrospective of the PLARF in 2016. Hint: It contains a lot of rocket launches.
China has a large number of long-range military rockets. Many of them are conventionally armed and act as substitutes for long-range bombers, cruise missile, and other strike assets. The Rocket Forces control both China's land-based nuclear missiles and conventional missiles. Many of the missiles are dual-capable, meaning they can be armed with nuclear or conventional weapons.
The video opens with a convoy of PLARF trucks on a dusty road, and a being hoisted high into the air on its transporter/erector/launcher (TEL)—basically a ten-wheeled military truck designed to safely haul the missile around and launch it. The DF-21 (DF stands for Dong Feng or "East Wind") medium-range missile has a range of 1,000 miles and can pack either a high-explosive warhead or a 200 to 300-kiloton nuclear warhead. The DF-21 can hit targets as far away as Japan or deep inside inside India. A special version of the DF-21, the , has been developed to attack American aircraft carriers at sea.
Next, at the 0:50 mark five missiles rise out of the backs of their TEL trucks. A short-range ballistic missile, the DF-15A has a range of just 560 miles. Older versions are accurate to within 900 feet half of the time, while newer versions use , China's version of the American Global Positioning System, to bring accuracy down to 30 feet. Shorter range missiles such as these would be useful against targets in border regions of India and the island of Taiwan.
At the 1:36 mark viewers are introduced to the . Unlike other missiles in the Rocket Forces arsenal the DF-31 is entirely a nuclear missile designed to provide China with a powerful deterrent against surprise nuclear attack. In a crisis DF-31s would be scattered to the countryside, where it would be nearly impossible to locate and destroy all of them. The DF-31's main shortcoming is a , which means it is mostly unable to strike targets in the continental United States.
The missile convoys apparently practice launch procedures while under attack, as pyrotechnics and other distractions are going off while the crews are practicing. The crews also seem to practice making smoke, which would mask the missiles from detection from the air.
Finally, at the 4:25 mark we have what appear to be Russian-made . The S-400 is one of the most advanced long range SAMs in the world, and is capable of shooting down everything from low-flying cruise missiles to aircraft to even ballistic missiles. During wartime enemy aircraft will be hunting the PLARF's mobile missile systems, and S-400s would provide direct protection to these high value assets from aerial attack.
The Chinese military's reliance on missiles doesn't make them any less dangerous. Missiles are much more difficult to shoot down than aircraft, and their ability to be launched from friendly territory against distant enemy targets makes them a difficult threat to eliminate. Let's hope they'll never be used in anger.
On January 1, 2016, the People's Republic of China renamed its Second Artillery Corps as the Rocket Force. A year later, Chinese state television has a retrospective of the PLARF in 2016. Hint: It contains a lot of rocket launches.
China has a large number of long-range military rockets. Many of them are conventionally armed and act as substitutes for long-range bombers, cruise missile, and other strike assets. The Rocket Forces control both China's land-based nuclear missiles and conventional missiles. Many of the missiles are dual-capable, meaning they can be armed with nuclear or conventional weapons.
The video opens with a convoy of PLARF trucks on a dusty road, and a being hoisted high into the air on its transporter/erector/launcher (TEL)—basically a ten-wheeled military truck designed to safely haul the missile around and launch it. The DF-21 (DF stands for Dong Feng or "East Wind") medium-range missile has a range of 1,000 miles and can pack either a high-explosive warhead or a 200 to 300-kiloton nuclear warhead. The DF-21 can hit targets as far away as Japan or deep inside inside India. A special version of the DF-21, the , has been developed to attack American aircraft carriers at sea.
Next, at the 0:50 mark five missiles rise out of the backs of their TEL trucks. A short-range ballistic missile, the DF-15A has a range of just 560 miles. Older versions are accurate to within 900 feet half of the time, while newer versions use , China's version of the American Global Positioning System, to bring accuracy down to 30 feet. Shorter range missiles such as these would be useful against targets in border regions of India and the island of Taiwan.
At the 1:36 mark viewers are introduced to the . Unlike other missiles in the Rocket Forces arsenal the DF-31 is entirely a nuclear missile designed to provide China with a powerful deterrent against surprise nuclear attack. In a crisis DF-31s would be scattered to the countryside, where it would be nearly impossible to locate and destroy all of them. The DF-31's main shortcoming is a , which means it is mostly unable to strike targets in the continental United States.
The missile convoys apparently practice launch procedures while under attack, as pyrotechnics and other distractions are going off while the crews are practicing. The crews also seem to practice making smoke, which would mask the missiles from detection from the air.
Finally, at the 4:25 mark we have what appear to be Russian-made . The S-400 is one of the most advanced long range SAMs in the world, and is capable of shooting down everything from low-flying cruise missiles to aircraft to even ballistic missiles. During wartime enemy aircraft will be hunting the PLARF's mobile missile systems, and S-400s would provide direct protection to these high value assets from aerial attack.
The Chinese military's reliance on missiles doesn't make them any less dangerous. Missiles are much more difficult to shoot down than aircraft, and their ability to be launched from friendly territory against distant enemy targets makes them a difficult threat to eliminate. Let's hope they'll never be used in anger.
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