China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

10 or 15 years down the track India will be. India is basically following the China formulae right now - Modi is spending on more infrastructure, at the same time making deals with western countries to have their factories move to India, tear down and cutting through the red tapes. The western countries particularly US led alliance (and also Russia) are all giving India a helping hand right now. In 10 or 15 years time India will be like what China was in 2000. In another 10 years after that India will most likely be close that gap further.

I think in 25 years time India will be able compete with China militarily, and that "second nuclear age" mentioned by the author will be fully realized. It is not about if it will happen, but WHEN it will happen.

Gee the notion that somehow India can take over from China sound like broken record
Does anybody still remember Tortoise vs hare book in 2010 prophesying the inevitability Super pawa of India

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India has everything going for her when she won independence. The treasury is brimming with surplus. India barely touch by WWII. Her railway line is the largest in Asia.She has functioning civil service etc. Compare to China that is was wrecked by WWII. Whatever left is carted off by the Russian. China is broke suffering from 1000% inflation, Civil war,Korean war, Economy embargo. Compare to China India has it easy but India squandered all those lead.

Well fast forward the Chinese GDP is almost 4 times Indian GDP and the gap is getting wider not narrower. As for military ,we read everyday how the Indian bungled their weapon procurement. Not to mention the infamous indigenous jet fighter Tejas that is 30 year behind schedule that even today not yet combat ready

The problem with the west is they can't accept the notion that anything other than their system of government can succeed. God forbid that it is China that succeed. It tell more about their own insecurity, anxiety and loss of confidence in the face of China rise. That is why they try to sow discord between India and China that has a long tradition of peace full coexistence until the Indian start to believe this western propaganda that they are better than China. It is tragedy

Yes the west is delusional if they believe India can beat China

 

[dingyibvs]

Lol, India. It needs to grow significantly faster than China to catch up by any appreciable amount in 25 years. With the advances in robotics, especially now that China is now involved such advances which will push it forward at unprecedented speed, it may not be possible for any country to ever replicate the east Asian growth model again.

 

[Blitzo]

Lol, India. It needs to grow significantly faster than China to catch up by any appreciable amount in 25 years. With the advances in robotics, especially now that China is now involved such advances which will push it forward at unprecedented speed, it may not be possible for any country to ever replicate the east Asian growth model again.

I don't think that's the right attitude we should take -- while we should acknowledge the realpolitik effect of whether India can find a growth model (or not), I think we shouldn't look down at their attempt or their humanitarian need and benefits of growth to help mitigate their poverty and associated adverse health outcomes.

After all it wasn't so long ago that China was right there in the midst of it too.

Still, I agree that the advancement of robotics in a number of countries, including China, may make it difficult for other countries at lower levels of industrialization (including India, but also other SE Asian countries, and Subsaharan Africa) to use the same growth model China and other East Asian countries used to develop. Nor is it assured that China will be able to manage the transition of robotics and its overall economic transition without a hitch.

 

[Ultra]

Gee the notion that somehow India can take over from China sound like broken record
Does anybody still remember Tortoise vs hare book in 2010 prophesying the inevitability Super pawa of India

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India has everything going for her when she won independence. The treasury is brimming with surplus. India barely touch by WWII. Her railway line is the largest in Asia.She has functioning civil service etc. Compare to China that is was wrecked by WWII. Whatever left is carted off by the Russian. China is broke suffering from 1000% inflation, Civil war,Korean war, Economy embargo. Compare to China India has it easy but India squandered all those lead.

Well fast forward the Chinese GDP is almost 4 times Indian GDP and the gap is getting wider not narrower. As for military ,we read everyday how the Indian bungled their weapon procurement. Not to mention the infamous indigenous jet fighter Tejas that is 30 year behind schedule that even today not yet combat ready

The problem with the west is they can't accept the notion that anything other than their system of government can succeed. God forbid that it is China that succeed. It tell more about their own insecurity, anxiety and loss of confidence in the face of China rise. That is why they try to sow discord between India and China that has a long tradition of peace full coexistence until the Indian start to believe this western propaganda that they are better than China. It is tragedy

Yes the west is delusional if they believe India can beat China

No it isn't. India's GDP is now at 7.3% last time I check while China is at 6.8%. If the current trajectory continues, India will eventually caught up with China. As to the Tejas and Arjuns and Kaveri... India IS a third world country by any standard so don't expect them to be on time like the first world country. They are just like China 20 years ago, a third world country running in third gear.

BUT.
Lately I have see they have pick up the pace in economy, and I think they are finally following China's lead. Modi is doing a lot of infrastructure work, making deals with various countries and I see the potential and I think this needs to be considered by the Chinese think tank.
What the biggest topic these chinese think tanks should think about is how to deal with a belligerent India in the future.

 

[Ultra]

Lol, India. It needs to grow significantly faster than China to catch up by any appreciable amount in 25 years.

That's where you are wrong. Chinese economy is decelerating. It is an undeniable fact. It was running at 10%, then down to 8%, then 7%, now sitting at 6.8% GDP growth rate. It will continue to decelerate like every other industrialized country until it stablized in around 2%.
India on the other hand just started to accelerate. It will soon go up to 8%, and probably even 10% and keep going at that for the foreseeable future. It is a familiar history that's been repeated many many times before in many countries around the world. India is like what China is like back in 1988, while China is like Japan is like back 1988. One is peaking and one is just starting.

With the advances in robotics, especially now that China is now involved such advances which will push it forward at unprecedented speed, it may not be possible for any country to ever replicate the east Asian growth model again.

Now, about robotics, don't expect robotics to offset any manual labor advantage. They been talking about robotics since 30-40 years ago. The Japanese pinned their hopes on robotics decades ago to offset the Chinese labour advantage. Guess where it got them. NOWHERE.

The robotics is not the elixir China is hoping for to sustain their economy. The development cost, the setup cost and will never offset the cheap and versatile human labour. When you can pay $1 a day for an indian labourer to make anything they been train for in a few days, compare to the long design, development, manufacturing and setup cost for a robotic factory that requires a large amount of electricity the robotic advantage quickly evaporated.

And you are very wrong, I am pretty certain India will catch up with China in the next 2 decades or maybe sooner. That's a fact, not if but when. When China's economy decelerate to around 2% while India's accelerate to over 10%, the effect will be very apparent. Couple with the fact of demographic shift in population, China will soon be more like the aging Japan of now, stagnant and not able to move forward, while India will look like the China of early 80s, young and charging forward.

 

[plawolf]

The biggest mistake India did was to follow western proscribed development, governance and policy theories blindly without much serious critical evaluation.

If one were to look at history critically and objectively, we could easily see that not even the west practices what they preach most of the time.

The Indian economy is in shambles because it's government let market forces reign free and supreme.

The result is chronic underinvestment on critical public goods and services like health, education and infrastructure.

The unwillingness to take the hard choice that China took to drastically control population growth, coupled with the aforementioned massive underinvestment and under provision of education means Indian literacy rates are shockingly bad.

A vast and growing number of people with minimal or no education isn't the demographic boon Indians and their western cheerleaders insist, quite the opposite, it's a massive social-economy time bomb.

India hasn't got the educational or infrastructure dividend to even attempt a Chinese style economic strategy.

Instead, market forces have done in India what it does everywhere if left unchecked, it became an efficient wealth accumulation tool for the wealthy, allowing them to grab an ever increasing share of the overall economic pie.

While that has helped produce a few world class companies, especially in services and IT, the number of jobs created is a drop in the bucket compared to what is needed.

That is a huge part of why India is finding it so much harder than China to make any headway in indiginous weapons development.

China has the vast technological skills and management experience base of its world class civilian manufacturing industry underpinning its military modernisation, developing new technologies and ensuring there is a vast number of highly capable suppliers ready and able to meet the subcontracting needs to the big Chinese defence specialist companies.

When Chinese scientists develop a new type of AESA radar, the chip fabs and electronics supply network that make much of the world's computers, smartphones and TVs had already invested in the tools and have extensive experience making very similar electronics for the world civilian market.

Not only does that reduce the time needed to turn a lab prototype into mass produced operational units, China could potentially also benefit from the economies of scale of its civilian application electronics to vastly lower the price for their military products.

I think that is a key reason why China seems to be putting AESA on just about everything these days.

Compare that to India, which often needs to invest in the infrastructure especially to allow their industry to build new arms, and it's quite clear that they are not even in the same league.

The smartest thing India can do is not to get into an arms race with China.

In that aspect, the low regard China holds India's true military power and threat is a positive boon for India.

It is already struggling badly and lagging more and more behind in their efforts to keep path with China when China doesn't even care what it does. Imagine how much worse India's security outlook would be if China devoted even a small fraction of its military and technology might towards developing hard counters against India.

 

[AndrewS]

@Ultra

A number of points for you.

I used to be much more optimistic about India, but the more I look at it, the more India looks like Brazil which is stuck in the middle income trap. In comparison China looks more and more like the East Asian Economic Tigers (namely Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong).

For example
1. Huge societal fractures (wealth/race/caste/religion/language) versus confucian homogeneity/inclusivity in East Asia
2. Dysfunctional democracy in Brazil/India versus effective authoritarian confucian meritocratic government in East Asia
3. Dismal education/scientific performance in Brazil/India versus East Asia
4. Dismal infrastructure investment in Brazil/India versus East Asia
5. Crazy and illogical laws in Brazil/India which means a legally run company always has to make a loss.
6. Ineffective import substitution policies in Brazil/India versus the successful export-oriented focus in East Asia.

===
China is not at its peak.

Japan in 1988 was already hi-tech country that had caught up, where the people were as wealthy as in the USA.

In comparison, the average Chinese person is still 3x poorer than his US counterpart.

Therefore China still has a long way to go.

===
The difference with robotics nowadays is the vast decrease in the cost of processing power COUPLED with improvements in Sensors / AI / Deep learning.

China’s technological transformation still has far to go — the country has just 36 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers, compared with 292 in Germany, 314 in Japan and 478 in South Korea. But it is already changing the face of the global manufacturing industry.
...
Boston Consulting Group, a management consultancy, predicts that the price of industrial robots and their enabling software will drop by 20 per cent over the next decade, while their performance will improve by 5 per cent each year.
..
Payback Period
2010: 5.3 years
2016: 1.5 years*
2017: 1.3 years*
...
Boston Consulting Group forecasts that the percentage of tasks handled by advanced robots will rise from 8 per cent today to 26 per cent by the end of the decade, driven by China, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the US, which together will account for 80 per cent of robot purchases.
...
Butchery, for example, was long considered the sort of skill that machines would struggle to develop, because of the need for careful hand-eye co-ordination and the manipulation of non-uniform slabs of meat. But Sirkin has watched robots cut the fat off meat much more efficiently than humans, thanks to the use of cheaper and more responsive sensors. “It’s becoming economically feasible to use machines to do this because you save another 3 or 4 per cent of the meat — and that’s worth a lot on a production line, where you can move quickly.
...
Very labour-intensive tasks such as sewing garments and shoemaking have seen minimal automation so far. But that is starting to change, with Adidas opening a robot-dominated shoe factory in Germany this year.

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The prospect of being able to pay off the cost of a robot in slightly more than a year, Goldman Sachs says, has brought industrial automation to within the reach of China’s millions of small and medium-sized manufacturers, creating the conditions for a productivity surge.

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[AndrewS]

@Ultra

On time-keeping and deadlines, there is a big difference in attitude between East Asia and India/Brazil.

And note that Brazil is slightly richer than China.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

No it isn't. India's GDP is now at 7.3% last time I check while China is at 6.8%. If the current trajectory continues, India will eventually caught up with China. As to the Tejas and Arjuns and Kaveri... India IS a third world country by any standard so don't expect them to be on time like the first world country. They are just like China 20 years ago, a third world country running in third gear.

BUT.
Lately I have see they have pick up the pace in economy, and I think they are finally following China's lead. Modi is doing a lot of infrastructure work, making deals with various countries and I see the potential and I think this needs to be considered by the Chinese think tank.
What the biggest topic these chinese think tanks should think about is how to deal with a belligerent India in the future.

India 7.3% GDP growth is the result of changing the way they calculate GDP. It is more an accounting gimmick to puff up the GDP.
Beside there are other economic indices beside GDP and using that India is nowhere close to what they claim

And beside China GDP is roughly 10 trillion dollar and Indian GDP is roughly 2.2 Trillion dollar In other word to catch up with China India need to grow by quadruple as fast as China.

India has the habit of counting their chicken before it hatch.There is still along way from announcing the intent to invest vs the actual investment. With shortage of electricity and poor transportation, the reality will soon set in The real measure of country popularity is the FDI that a country received. Here India fare badly
What make you think that India can catch up when even with all the advantages she had, she is falling behind with every year. Like everybody was saying the economical environment now is much more difficult for upstart than in the 80's when China star with export oriented economy
India GDP.
Paraphrasing De Gaulle who once said when asked about Brazil. He said Brazil will "always be the country of future" And so do India

India FDI

Comparing China and India in military development is absurdity. Because China for a long time is under technical embargo and still is, India is not. India has access and all kind of help from the west and Russia.Yet even with that she can't even bring Kaveri to finish line and had to be abandoned

 

[hlcc]

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